Simulation studies of the biological control of Aphis Fabae

Imperial Users onl

Models for an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries

This document is one outcome from a workshop held in Gizo in October 2010 attended by 82 representatives from government, NGO's private sector, and communities. The target audience for the document is primarily organizations planning to work with coastal communities of Solomon Islands to implement Community-Based Resource Management (CBRM). It is however also envisaged that the document will serve as a reference for communities to better understand what to expect from their partners and also for donors, to be informed about agreed approaches amongst Solomon Islands stakeholders. This document does not attempt to summarize all the outcomes of the workshop; rather it focuses on the Solomon Islands Coral Triangle Initiative (CTI) National Plan of Action (NPoA): Theme 1: Support and implementation of CBRM and specifically, the scaling up of CBRM in Solomon Islands. Most of the principles given in this document are derived from experiences in coastal communities and ecosystems as, until relatively recently, these have received most attention in Solomon Islands resource management. It is recognized however that the majority of these principles will be applicable to both coastal and terrestrial initiatives. This document synthesizes information provided by stakeholders at the October 2010 workshop and covers some basic principles of engagement and implementation that have been learned over more than twenty years of activities by the stakeholder partners in Solomon Islands. The document updates and expands on a summary of guiding principles for CBRM which was originally prepared by the Solomon Islands Locally Managed Marine Area Network (SILMMA) in 2007

Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions

Since the beginning of the last century the world is experiencing an important demographic transition, which will probably impact on economic growth. Many demographers and social scientists are trying to understand the key drivers of such transition as well as its profound implications. A correct understanding will help to predict other important trends of the world primary energy demand and the carbon emission to the atmosphere, which may be leading to an important climate change. This paper proposes a set of coupled differential equations to describe the changes of population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions, modeled as competing-species as in Lokta-Volterra prey-predator relations. The predator–prey model is well known in the biological, ecological and environmental literature and has also been applied successfully in other fields. This model proposes a new and simple conceptual explanation of the interactions and feedbacks among the principal driving forces leading to the present transition. The estimated results for the temporal evolution of world population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions are calculated from year 1850 to year 2150. The calculated scenarios are in good agreement with common world data and projections for the next 100 years.Population dynamics, economic growth, primary energy consumption, carbon emission model, Lokta-Volterra Equations, Prey-predator model.

Moving forward in circles: challenges and opportunities in modelling population cycles

Population cycling is a widespread phenomenon, observed across a multitude of taxa in both laboratory and natural conditions. Historically, the theory associated with population cycles was tightly linked to pairwise consumer–resource interactions and studied via deterministic models, but current empirical and theoretical research reveals a much richer basis for ecological cycles. Stochasticity and seasonality can modulate or create cyclic behaviour in non-intuitive ways, the high-dimensionality in ecological systems can profoundly influence cycling, and so can demographic structure and eco-evolutionary dynamics. An inclusive theory for population cycles, ranging from ecosystem-level to demographic modelling, grounded in observational or experimental data, is therefore necessary to better understand observed cyclical patterns. In turn, by gaining better insight into the drivers of population cycles, we can begin to understand the causes of cycle gain and loss, how biodiversity interacts with population cycling, and how to effectively manage wildly fluctuating populations, all of which are growing domains of ecological research

Application of Beddington DeAngelis Response Function in Ecological Mathematical System: Study Fish Endemic Oliv Predator Species in Merauke

Predator-prey type fishery models Oliv fish is a trans-endemic predator species that inhabits freshwater swamps and brackish water in Merauke, Papua. Maintaining the survival of the Oliv fish species is the main reason for compiling a mathematical model, so that it can be considered by local governments in making ecological policies. Method on model discussed is assembled with the growth of predator-prey populations following the growth of logistics. The response or predatory function corresponding to the behavior of endemic Oliv fish is the Beddington DeAngelis type. The growth of predatory species uses the concept of growth with stage structure, are divided into mature and immature. Research results show there are four equilibrium points of the mathematical model, but only one point becomes the asymptotic stable equilibrium point without harvesting W_4 (x^*,y^*,z^* )=92.823,1311.489,525.957 and equilibrium point with harvesting W_4 (x^*,y^*,z^* )=95.062,92.639,160.466 . Harvesting exploitation efforts are carried out by the community so that the harvesting variables are added with a proportional concept. Simulation of the results of the study shows a stable scheme and harvesting conducted can maintain the number of populations that continue.