Optimal Parameter Choices Through Self-Adjustment: Applying the 1/5-th Rule in Discrete Settings

While evolutionary algorithms are known to be very successful for a broad range of applications, the algorithm designer is often left with many algorithmic choices, for example, the size of the population, the mutation rates, and the crossover rates of the algorithm. These parameters are known to have a crucial influence on the optimization time, and thus need to be chosen carefully, a task that often requires substantial efforts. Moreover, the optimal parameters can change during the optimization process. It is therefore of great interest to design mechanisms that dynamically choose best-possible parameters. An example for such an update mechanism is the one-fifth success rule for step-size adaption in evolutionary strategies. While in continuous domains this principle is well understood also from a mathematical point of view, no comparable theory is available for problems in discrete domains. In this work we show that the one-fifth success rule can be effective also in discrete settings. We regard the $(1+(\lambda,\lambda))$~GA proposed in [Doerr/Doerr/Ebel: From black-box complexity to designing new genetic algorithms, TCS 2015]. We prove that if its population size is chosen according to the one-fifth success rule then the expected optimization time on \textsc{OneMax} is linear. This is better than what \emph{any} static population size $\lambda$ can achieve and is asymptotically optimal also among all adaptive parameter choices.Comment: This is the full version of a paper that is to appear at GECCO 201

Towards a Theory-Guided Benchmarking Suite for Discrete Black-Box Optimization Heuristics: Profiling (1+λ)(1+\lambda) EA Variants on OneMax and LeadingOnes

Theoretical and empirical research on evolutionary computation methods complement each other by providing two fundamentally different approaches towards a better understanding of black-box optimization heuristics. In discrete optimization, both streams developed rather independently of each other, but we observe today an increasing interest in reconciling these two sub-branches. In continuous optimization, the COCO (COmparing Continuous Optimisers) benchmarking suite has established itself as an important platform that theoreticians and practitioners use to exchange research ideas and questions. No widely accepted equivalent exists in the research domain of discrete black-box optimization. Marking an important step towards filling this gap, we adjust the COCO software to pseudo-Boolean optimization problems, and obtain from this a benchmarking environment that allows a fine-grained empirical analysis of discrete black-box heuristics. In this documentation we demonstrate how this test bed can be used to profile the performance of evolutionary algorithms. More concretely, we study the optimization behavior of several $(1+\lambda)$ EA variants on the two benchmark problems OneMax and LeadingOnes. This comparison motivates a refined analysis for the optimization time of the $(1+\lambda)$ EA on LeadingOnes

Runtime Analysis for Self-adaptive Mutation Rates

We propose and analyze a self-adaptive version of the $(1,\lambda)$ evolutionary algorithm in which the current mutation rate is part of the individual and thus also subject to mutation. A rigorous runtime analysis on the OneMax benchmark function reveals that a simple local mutation scheme for the rate leads to an expected optimization time (number of fitness evaluations) of $O(n\lambda/\log\lambda+n\log n)$ when $\lambda$ is at least $C \ln n$ for some constant $C > 0$. For all values of $\lambda \ge C \ln n$, this performance is asymptotically best possible among all $\lambda$-parallel mutation-based unbiased black-box algorithms. Our result shows that self-adaptation in evolutionary computation can find complex optimal parameter settings on the fly. At the same time, it proves that a relatively complicated self-adjusting scheme for the mutation rate proposed by Doerr, Gie{\ss}en, Witt, and Yang~(GECCO~2017) can be replaced by our simple endogenous scheme. On the technical side, the paper contributes new tools for the analysis of two-dimensional drift processes arising in the analysis of dynamic parameter choices in EAs, including bounds on occupation probabilities in processes with non-constant drift

Forecasts of non-Gaussian parameter spaces using Box-Cox transformations

Forecasts of statistical constraints on model parameters using the Fisher matrix abound in many fields of astrophysics. The Fisher matrix formalism involves the assumption of Gaussianity in parameter space and hence fails to predict complex features of posterior probability distributions. Combining the standard Fisher matrix with Box-Cox transformations, we propose a novel method that accurately predicts arbitrary posterior shapes. The Box-Cox transformations are applied to parameter space to render it approximately multivariate Gaussian, performing the Fisher matrix calculation on the transformed parameters. We demonstrate that, after the Box-Cox parameters have been determined from an initial likelihood evaluation, the method correctly predicts changes in the posterior when varying various parameters of the experimental setup and the data analysis, with marginally higher computational cost than a standard Fisher matrix calculation. We apply the Box-Cox-Fisher formalism to forecast cosmological parameter constraints by future weak gravitational lensing surveys. The characteristic non-linear degeneracy between matter density parameter and normalisation of matter density fluctuations is reproduced for several cases, and the capabilities of breaking this degeneracy by weak lensing three-point statistics is investigated. Possible applications of Box-Cox transformations of posterior distributions are discussed, including the prospects for performing statistical data analysis steps in the transformed Gaussianised parameter space.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures; minor changes to match version published in MNRA

The problem of evaluating automated large-scale evidence aggregators

In the biomedical context, policy makers face a large amount of potentially discordant evidence from different sources. This prompts the question of how this evidence should be aggregated in the interests of best-informed policy recommendations. The starting point of our discussion is Hunter and Williams’ recent work on an automated aggregation method for medical evidence. Our negative claim is that it is far from clear what the relevant criteria for evaluating an evidence aggregator of this sort are. What is the appropriate balance between explicitly coded algorithms and implicit reasoning involved, for instance, in the packaging of input evidence? In short: What is the optimal degree of ‘automation’? On the positive side: We propose the ability to perform an adequate robustness analysis as the focal criterion, primarily because it directs efforts to what is most important, namely, the structure of the algorithm and the appropriate extent of automation. Moreover, where there are resource constraints on the aggregation process, one must also consider what balance between volume of evidence and accuracy in the treatment of individual evidence best facilitates inference. There is no prerogative to aggregate the total evidence available if this would in fact reduce overall accuracy

Reducing Dueling Bandits to Cardinal Bandits

We present algorithms for reducing the Dueling Bandits problem to the conventional (stochastic) Multi-Armed Bandits problem. The Dueling Bandits problem is an online model of learning with ordinal feedback of the form "A is preferred to B" (as opposed to cardinal feedback like "A has value 2.5"), giving it wide applicability in learning from implicit user feedback and revealed and stated preferences. In contrast to existing algorithms for the Dueling Bandits problem, our reductions -- named \Doubler, \MultiSbm and \DoubleSbm -- provide a generic schema for translating the extensive body of known results about conventional Multi-Armed Bandit algorithms to the Dueling Bandits setting. For \Doubler and \MultiSbm we prove regret upper bounds in both finite and infinite settings, and conjecture about the performance of \DoubleSbm which empirically outperforms the other two as well as previous algorithms in our experiments. In addition, we provide the first almost optimal regret bound in terms of second order terms, such as the differences between the values of the arms