Decision Forest: A Nonparametric Approach to Modeling Irrational Choice

Customer behavior is often assumed to follow weak rationality, which implies that adding a product to an assortment will not increase the choice probability of another product in that assortment. However, an increasing amount of research has revealed that customers are not necessarily rational when making decisions. In this paper, we propose a new nonparametric choice model that relaxes this assumption and can model a wider range of customer behavior, such as decoy effects between products. In this model, each customer type is associated with a binary decision tree, which represents a decision process for making a purchase based on checking for the existence of specific products in the assortment. Together with a probability distribution over customer types, we show that the resulting model -- a decision forest -- is able to represent any customer choice model, including models that are inconsistent with weak rationality. We theoretically characterize the depth of the forest needed to fit a data set of historical assortments and prove that with high probability, a forest whose depth scales logarithmically in the number of assortments is sufficient to fit most data sets. We also propose two practical algorithms -- one based on column generation and one based on random sampling -- for estimating such models from data. Using synthetic data and real transaction data exhibiting non-rational behavior, we show that the model outperforms both rational and non-rational benchmark models in out-of-sample predictive ability.Comment: The paper is forthcoming in Management Science (accepted on July 25, 2021

Deterministic and Probabilistic Binary Search in Graphs

We consider the following natural generalization of Binary Search: in a given undirected, positively weighted graph, one vertex is a target. The algorithm's task is to identify the target by adaptively querying vertices. In response to querying a node $q$, the algorithm learns either that $q$ is the target, or is given an edge out of $q$ that lies on a shortest path from $q$ to the target. We study this problem in a general noisy model in which each query independently receives a correct answer with probability $p > \frac{1}{2}$ (a known constant), and an (adversarial) incorrect one with probability $1-p$. Our main positive result is that when $p = 1$ (i.e., all answers are correct), $\log_2 n$ queries are always sufficient. For general $p$, we give an (almost information-theoretically optimal) algorithm that uses, in expectation, no more than $(1 - \delta)\frac{\log_2 n}{1 - H(p)} + o(\log n) + O(\log^2 (1/\delta))$ queries, and identifies the target correctly with probability at leas $1-\delta$. Here, $H(p) = -(p \log p + (1-p) \log(1-p))$ denotes the entropy. The first bound is achieved by the algorithm that iteratively queries a 1-median of the nodes not ruled out yet; the second bound by careful repeated invocations of a multiplicative weights algorithm. Even for $p = 1$, we show several hardness results for the problem of determining whether a target can be found using $K$ queries. Our upper bound of $\log_2 n$ implies a quasipolynomial-time algorithm for undirected connected graphs; we show that this is best-possible under the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH). Furthermore, for directed graphs, or for undirected graphs with non-uniform node querying costs, the problem is PSPACE-complete. For a semi-adaptive version, in which one may query $r$ nodes each in $k$ rounds, we show membership in $\Sigma_{2k-1}$ in the polynomial hierarchy, and hardness for $\Sigma_{2k-5}$

Message passing optimization of Harmonic Influence Centrality

This paper proposes a new measure of node centrality in social networks, the Harmonic Influence Centrality, which emerges naturally in the study of social influence over networks. Using an intuitive analogy between social and electrical networks, we introduce a distributed message passing algorithm to compute the Harmonic Influence Centrality of each node. Although its design is based on theoretical results which assume the network to have no cycle, the algorithm can also be successfully applied on general graphs.Comment: 11 pages; 10 figures; to appear as a journal publicatio

On the Complexity of Searching in Trees: Average-case Minimization

We focus on the average-case analysis: A function w : V -> Z+ is given which defines the likelihood for a node to be the one marked, and we want the strategy that minimizes the expected number of queries. Prior to this paper, very little was known about this natural question and the complexity of the problem had remained so far an open question. We close this question and prove that the above tree search problem is NP-complete even for the class of trees with diameter at most 4. This results in a complete characterization of the complexity of the problem with respect to the diameter size. In fact, for diameter not larger than 3 the problem can be shown to be polynomially solvable using a dynamic programming approach. In addition we prove that the problem is NP-complete even for the class of trees of maximum degree at most 16. To the best of our knowledge, the only known result in this direction is that the tree search problem is solvable in O(|V| log|V|) time for trees with degree at most 2 (paths). We match the above complexity results with a tight algorithmic analysis. We first show that a natural greedy algorithm attains a 2-approximation. Furthermore, for the bounded degree instances, we show that any optimal strategy (i.e., one that minimizes the expected number of queries) performs at most O(\Delta(T) (log |V| + log w(T))) queries in the worst case, where w(T) is the sum of the likelihoods of the nodes of T and \Delta(T) is the maximum degree of T. We combine this result with a non-trivial exponential time algorithm to provide an FPTAS for trees with bounded degree

Pairwise meta-rules for better meta-learning-based algorithm ranking

In this paper, we present a novel meta-feature generation method in the context of meta-learning, which is based on rules that compare the performance of individual base learners in a one-against-one manner. In addition to these new meta-features, we also introduce a new meta-learner called Approximate Ranking Tree Forests (ART Forests) that performs very competitively when compared with several state-of-the-art meta-learners. Our experimental results are based on a large collection of datasets and show that the proposed new techniques can improve the overall performance of meta-learning for algorithm ranking significantly. A key point in our approach is that each performance figure of any base learner for any specific dataset is generated by optimising the parameters of the base learner separately for each dataset