The History of the Quantitative Methods in Finance Conference Series. 1992-2007

This report charts the history of the Quantitative Methods in Finance (QMF) conference from its beginning in 1993 to the 15th conference in 2007. It lists alphabetically the 1037 speakers who presented at all 15 conferences and the titles of their papers.

Measuring tropical rainforest resilience under non-Gaussian disturbances

The Amazon rainforest is considered one of the Earth's tipping elements and may lose stability under ongoing climate change. Recently a decrease in tropical rainforest resilience has been identified globally from remotely sensed vegetation data. However, the underlying theory assumes a Gaussian distribution of forest disturbances, which is different from most observed forest stressors such as fires, deforestation, or windthrow. Those stressors often occur in power-law-like distributions and can be approximated by $\alpha$-stable L\'evy noise. Here, we show that classical critical slowing down indicators to measure changes in forest resilience are robust under such power-law disturbances. To assess the robustness of critical slowing down indicators, we simulate pulse-like perturbations in an adapted and conceptual model of a tropical rainforest. We find few missed early warnings and few false alarms are achievable simultaneously if the following steps are carried out carefully: First, the model must be known to resolve the timescales of the perturbation. Second, perturbations need to be filtered according to their absolute temporal autocorrelation. Third, critical slowing down has to be assessed using the non-parametric Kendall-$\tau$ slope. These prerequisites allow for an increase in the sensitivity of early warning signals. Hence, our findings imply improved reliability of the interpretation of empirically estimated rainforest resilience through critical slowing down indicators

Approximate Gaussian conjugacy: parametric recursive filtering under nonlinearity, multimodality, uncertainty, and constraint, and beyond

Since the landmark work of R. E. Kalman in the 1960s, considerable efforts have been devoted to time series state space models for a large variety of dynamic estimation problems. In particular, parametric filters that seek analytical estimates based on a closed-form Markov–Bayes recursion, e.g., recursion from a Gaussian or Gaussian mixture (GM) prior to a Gaussian/GM posterior (termed ‘Gaussian conjugacy’ in this paper), form the backbone for a general time series filter design. Due to challenges arising from nonlinearity, multimodality (including target maneuver), intractable uncertainties (such as unknown inputs and/or non-Gaussian noises) and constraints (including circular quantities), etc., new theories, algorithms, and technologies have been developed continuously to maintain such a conjugacy, or to approximate it as close as possible. They had contributed in large part to the prospective developments of time series parametric filters in the last six decades. In this paper, we review the state of the art in distinctive categories and highlight some insights that may otherwise be easily overlooked. In particular, specific attention is paid to nonlinear systems with an informative observation, multimodal systems including Gaussian mixture posterior and maneuvers, and intractable unknown inputs and constraints, to fill some gaps in existing reviews and surveys. In addition, we provide some new thoughts on alternatives to the first-order Markov transition model and on filter evaluation with regard to computing complexity

CMB lensing reconstruction using cut sky polarization maps and pure B modes

Detailed measurements of the CMB lensing signal are an important scientific goal of ongoing groundbased CMB polarization experiments, which are mapping the CMB at high resolution over small patches of the sky. In this work we simulate CMB polarization lensing reconstruction for the EE and EB quadratic estimators with current-generation noise levels and resolution, and show that without boundary effects the known and expected zeroth and first order Nð0Þ and Nð1Þ biases provide an adequate model for nonsignal contributions to the lensing power spectrum estimators. Small sky areas present a number of additional challenges for polarization lensing reconstruction, including leakage of E modes into B modes. We show how simple windowed estimators using filtered pure B modes can greatly reduce the mask-induced meanfield lensing signal and reduce variance in the estimators. This provides a simple method (used with recent observations) that gives an alternative to more optimal but expensive inverse-variance filtering

Stochastic resonance in chua's circuit driven by alpha-stable noise

Thesis (Master)--Izmir Institute of Technology, Electronics and Communication Engineering, Izmir, 2012Includes bibliographical references (leaves: 75-80)Text in English; Abstract: Turkish and Englishx, 80 leavesThe main aim of this thesis is to investigate the stochastic resonance (SR) in Chua's circuit driven by alpha-stable noise which has better approximation to a real-world signal than Gaussian distribution. SR is a phenomenon in which the response of a nonlinear system to a sub-threshold (weak) input signal is enhanced with the addition of an optimal amount of noise. There have been an increasing amount of applications based on SR in various fields. Almost all studies related to SR in chaotic systems assume that the noise is Gaussian, which leads researchers to investigate the cases in which the noise is non-Gaussian hence has infinite variance. In this thesis, the spectral power amplification which is used to quantify the SR has been evaluated through fractional lower order Wigner Ville distribution of the response of a system and analyzed for various parameters of alpha-stable noise. The results provide a visible SR effect in Chua’s circuit driven by symmetric and skewed-symmetric alpha-stable noise distributions. Furthermore, a series of simulations reveal that the mean residence time that is the average time spent by the trajectory in an attractor can vary depending on different alpha-stable noise parameters

Periodic Splines and Gaussian Processes for the Resolution of Linear Inverse Problems

This paper deals with the resolution of inverse problems in a periodic setting or, in other terms, the reconstruction of periodic continuous-domain signals from their noisy measurements. We focus on two reconstruction paradigms: variational and statistical. In the variational approach, the reconstructed signal is solution to an optimization problem that establishes a tradeoff between fidelity to the data and smoothness conditions via a quadratic regularization associated to a linear operator. In the statistical approach, the signal is modeled as a stationary random process defined from a Gaussian white noise and a whitening operator; one then looks for the optimal estimator in the mean-square sense. We give a generic form of the reconstructed signals for both approaches, allowing for a rigorous comparison of the two.We fully characterize the conditions under which the two formulations yield the same solution, which is a periodic spline in the case of sampling measurements. We also show that this equivalence between the two approaches remains valid on simulations for a broad class of problems. This extends the practical range of applicability of the variational method