Stochastic Optimal Prediction with Application to Averaged Euler Equations

Optimal prediction (OP) methods compensate for a lack of resolution in the numerical solution of complex problems through the use of an invariant measure as a prior measure in the Bayesian sense. In first-order OP, unresolved information is approximated by its conditional expectation with respect to the invariant measure. In higher-order OP, unresolved information is approximated by a stochastic estimator, leading to a system of random or stochastic differential equations. We explain the ideas through a simple example, and then apply them to the solution of Averaged Euler equations in two space dimensions.Comment: 13 pages, 2 figure

Mean-Field Sparse Optimal Control

We introduce the rigorous limit process connecting finite dimensional sparse optimal control problems with ODE constraints, modeling parsimonious interventions on the dynamics of a moving population divided into leaders and followers, to an infinite dimensional optimal control problem with a constraint given by a system of ODE for the leaders coupled with a PDE of Vlasov-type, governing the dynamics of the probability distribution of the followers. In the classical mean-field theory one studies the behavior of a large number of small individuals freely interacting with each other, by simplifying the effect of all the other individuals on any given individual by a single averaged effect. In this paper we address instead the situation where the leaders are actually influenced also by an external policy maker, and we propagate its effect for the number $N$ of followers going to infinity. The technical derivation of the sparse mean-field optimal control is realized by the simultaneous development of the mean-field limit of the equations governing the followers dynamics together with the $\Gamma$-limit of the finite dimensional sparse optimal control problems.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1306.591

A Class of Mean-field LQG Games with Partial Information

The large-population system consists of considerable small agents whose individual behavior and mass effect are interrelated via their state-average. The mean-field game provides an efficient way to get the decentralized strategies of large-population system when studying its dynamic optimizations. Unlike other large-population literature, this current paper possesses the following distinctive features. First, our setting includes the partial information structure of large-population system which is practical from real application standpoint. Specially, two cases of partial information structure are considered here: the partial filtration case (see Section 2, 3) where the available information to agents is the filtration generated by an observable component of underlying Brownian motion; the noisy observation case (Section 4) where the individual agent can access an additive white-noise observation on its own state. Also, it is new in filtering modeling that our sensor function may depend on the state-average. Second, in both cases, the limiting state-averages become random and the filtering equations to individual state should be formalized to get the decentralized strategies. Moreover, it is also new that the limit average of state filters should be analyzed here. This makes our analysis very different to the full information arguments of large-population system. Third, the consistency conditions are equivalent to the wellposedness of some Riccati equations, and do not involve the fixed-point analysis as in other mean-field games. The $\epsilon$-Nash equilibrium properties are also presented.Comment: 19 page

Kinetic Intersections as a Source of Information on Rate Coefficients

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Data-driven modelling of biological multi-scale processes

Biological processes involve a variety of spatial and temporal scales. A holistic understanding of many biological processes therefore requires multi-scale models which capture the relevant properties on all these scales. In this manuscript we review mathematical modelling approaches used to describe the individual spatial scales and how they are integrated into holistic models. We discuss the relation between spatial and temporal scales and the implication of that on multi-scale modelling. Based upon this overview over state-of-the-art modelling approaches, we formulate key challenges in mathematical and computational modelling of biological multi-scale and multi-physics processes. In particular, we considered the availability of analysis tools for multi-scale models and model-based multi-scale data integration. We provide a compact review of methods for model-based data integration and model-based hypothesis testing. Furthermore, novel approaches and recent trends are discussed, including computation time reduction using reduced order and surrogate models, which contribute to the solution of inference problems. We conclude the manuscript by providing a few ideas for the development of tailored multi-scale inference methods.Comment: This manuscript will appear in the Journal of Coupled Systems and Multiscale Dynamics (American Scientific Publishers

Optimization and Control of Agent-Based Models in Biology: A Perspective

Agent-based models (ABMs) have become an increasingly important mode of inquiry for the life sciences. They are particularly valuable for systems that are not understood well enough to build an equation-based model. These advantages, however, are counterbalanced by the difficulty of analyzing and using ABMs, due to the lack of the type of mathematical tools available for more traditional models, which leaves simulation as the primary approach. As models become large, simulation becomes challenging. This paper proposes a novel approach to two mathematical aspects of ABMs, optimization and control, and it presents a few first steps outlining how one might carry out this approach. Rather than viewing the ABM as a model, it is to be viewed as a surrogate for the actual system. For a given optimization or control problem (which may change over time), the surrogate system is modeled instead, using data from the ABM and a modeling framework for which ready-made mathematical tools exist, such as differential equations, or for which control strategies can explored more easily. Once the optimization problem is solved for the model of the surrogate, it is then lifted to the surrogate and tested. The final step is to lift the optimization solution from the surrogate system to the actual system. This program is illustrated with published work, using two relatively simple ABMs as a demonstration, Sugarscape and a consumer-resource ABM. Specific techniques discussed include dimension reduction and approximation of an ABM by difference equations as well systems of PDEs, related to certain specific control objectives. This demonstration illustrates the very challenging mathematical problems that need to be solved before this approach can be realistically applied to complex and large ABMs, current and future. The paper outlines a research program to address them