Optimal allocation of tunnel safety provisions based on a quantitative risk assessment model

© 2016 Pan Li and Xiaobo Qu. This paper addresses the issue of optimally selecting the tunnel safety provisions. Tunnel safety provisions are the assets of urban road tunnels which are installed and implemented to reduce the tunnel risks, which are basically selected by expert judgment in practice. An optimization model is proposed to obtain the optimal solution for the selection of tunnel safety provisions. The objective function is to minimize the life cycle costs of tunnel safety provisions, which is subject to the requirements for tunnel safety provisions and the safety targets. Finally, by taking advantage of the special structure of the optimization model, a Bi-Section Search and Bound Algorithm (BSSBA) is designed to efficiently solve the problem

Policy Issues in U.S. Transportation Public-Private Partnerships: Lessons from Australia, Research Report 09-15

In this report, the authors examine Australia’s experience with transportation public-private partnerships (PPPs) and the lessons that experience holds for the use of PPPs in the United States. Australia now has decades of experience in PPP use in transportation, and has used the approach to deliver billions of dollars in project value. Although this report explores a range of issues, the authors focus on four policy issues that have been salient in the United States: (1) how the risks inherent in PPP contracts should be distributed across public and private sector partners; (2) when and how to use non-compete (or compensation) clauses in PPP contracts; (3) how concerns about monopoly power are best addressed; and (4) the role and importance of concession length. The study examines those and other questions by surveying the relevant literature on PPP international use. The authors also interviewed 23 Australian PPP experts from the academic, public and private sectors, and distilled lessons from those interviews

Valuation of risk and complexity attributes causing delays in Australian Transport infrastructure projects for optimal contingency Estimation

The transportation projects have historically experienced significant delays and cost overruns from the time decision to build has been taken by the owner. This thesis addresses the problem of why this delay occurs by looking at the drivers from a risk management perspective. It identifies and analyses the owner risk attributes that contribute to significant delays related to transportation projects from an Australian context. After a literature review of current risks causing delays in transportation projects from across the globe, risk and complexity related to transport projects in Australia are identified from an Australian context using a questionnaire survey completed by participants with relevant experience in the transport industry. The risks are ranked using the Relative Importance Index (RII) based on likelihood and impact score. The results obtained include many attributes which are condensed to factors based on correlations using factor analysis. This gives us a big picture of the main risk and complexity factors affecting delays on transportation projects. Once done, a predictive model is obtained between the overall delay as the dependent variable and risk attributes as the independent variable. This is obtained using the statistical technique of Ordinal Multivariate regression. Lastly, a working framework that allows the methodology used in the thesis to be applied to all projects to understand the risk and complexity factors. This result can be useful for owners in obtaining a realistic design to build estimate in transport infrastructure projects by allocation of suitable contingency on risk and complexity drivers causing delays in transport infrastructure project

QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS FOR FIRE IN URBAN ROAD TUNNELS

Ph.DDOCTOR OF PHILOSOPH

Chinese dequity: transaction structure and two applications

In recent years, the financial market has been under the dual pressure of macro-economic downturn and deleveraging of industry entities. In this context, the regulating authorities have been encouraging enterprises to resort to debt replacement in order to lower financing cost. Therefore, the financing instrument characterized by "Chinese dequity" came into existence (Chen & Kensinger, 1991). As an innovative investment business, it has significantly contributed to China's economic development by making financing easier for enterprises and relieving the financial pressure on governments and banks. However, many problems have surfaced in its application in China, most notably the uneven distribution of each party’s control rights and interests, poor risk control and management, and a yet-to-be-perfected theoretical system. Further optimization is thus needed. In the above context, this thesis intends to ensure the consistency between the ultimate financing result and the expected goal by designing a transaction structure for "Chinese dequity" in construction projects. Such financing transaction structures of two projects are studied as cases, namely, the PPP Project of the Underground Utility Tunnel in HS City and XNY Private Chemical Construction Project. The author studies many theories, introduces the concept of "control rights preference", and constructs the optimal control rights allocation model by adopting stochastic cooperative games. On this basis, the designed transaction structure in infrastructure construction, allocation of control rights of participants, and existing problems are analyzed. In the end, a conclusion is made and suggestions for further research given.Nos últimos anos, o mercado financeiro tem estado sob a dupla pressão da recessão macroeconómica e da desalavancagem de entidades industriais. Neste contexto, as autoridades reguladoras vêm incentivando as empresas a recorrer à substituição de dívidas para reduzir o custo de financiamento. Portanto, surgiu o instrumento de financiamento caracterizado pela "deidade chinesa" (Chen & Kensinger, 1991). Como um negócio de investimento inovador, tem contribuído significativamente para o desenvolvimento económico da China fazendo mais fácil o financiamento para empresas e aliviando a pressão financeira sobre governos e bancos. No entanto, muitos problemas têm surgido em sua aplicação na China, principalmente a distribuição desigual dos direitos de controle e interesses de cada parte, o insatisfatório controle e gerenciamento de risco e, um sistema teórico ainda a ser aperfeiçoado. Otimização adicional é, portanto, necessária. No contexto acima, esta tese pretende garantir a consistência entre o resultado definitivo do financiamento e o objetivo esperado, projetando uma estrutura de transação para a "deidade chinesa" em projetos de construção. Tais estruturas de transação de financiamento de dois projetos são estudadas como casos, para esclarecer, o Projeto PPP do Túnel Utilitário Subterrâneo na cidade de HS e o Projeto Privado de Construção Química de XNY. O autor estuda muitas teorias, introduz o conceito de “preferência de direitos de controle” e constrói o modelo ótimo de alocação de direitos de controle adotando jogos cooperativos estocásticos. Com base nisso, a estrutura de transação projetada na construção de infraestrutura, a alocação de direitos de controle dos participantes e os problemas existentes são analisados. No final, uma conclusão é feita e sugestões para mais pesquisas são dadas

Tunnelling

Tunnelling has become a fragmented process, excessively influenced by lawyers'notions of confrontational contractual bases. This prevents the pooling of skills, essential to the achievement of the promoters' objectives. Tunnelling: Management by Design seeks the reversal of this trend. After a brief historical treatment of selected developments, t

WINDERFUL Wind and INfrastructures

WINDERFUL (an acronym for Wind and INfrastructures: Dominating Eolian Risk For Utilities and Lifelines) is the title of a research project carried out by eight Italian Universities from the end of 2001 to the end of 2003. The project was centred on how "to keep a city running and ensuring quality services during and after major windstorms", avoiding "major failures" of engineering facilities and main infrastructures. The book reports the main results obtained in the project, and for each typology the tool for assessing its reliability are discussed, together with the criteria for its improvement

Advanced Manned Launch System (AMLS) study

To assure national leadership in space operations and exploration in the future, NASA must be able to provide cost effective and operationally efficient space transportation. Several NASA studies and the joint NASA/DoD Space Transportation Architecture Studies (STAS) have shown the need for a multi-vehicle space transportation system with designs driven by enhanced operations and low costs. NASA is currently studying an advanced manned launch system (AMLS) approach to transport crew and cargo to the Space Station Freedom. Several single and multiple stage systems from air-breathing to all-rocket concepts are being examined in a series of studies potential replacements for the Space Shuttle launch system in the 2000-2010 time frame. Rockwell International Corporation, under contract to the NASA Langley Research Center, has analyzed a two-stage all-rocket concept to determine whether this class of vehicles is appropriate for the AMLS function. The results of the pre-phase A study are discussed

Policy framework and systems management of global climate change

Climate change is representative of a general class of environmental issues where decisions have to be taken under controversies. The policy framework for these kinds of decisions is defined by three important traits: scientific ignorance, mediatization and the need for innovation. Scientific ignorance is an issue here because decisions must be taken before the end of scientific controversies about the predictability of future climate. Mediatization is key because agents can't have a sensible experience of the global climate change, and some interest-holders (future generations, distant countries) cannot participate directly in the decision. Third, the need for innovation is crucial because today's technology offers the only alternative between fossil fuels and nuclear power as a main primary energy source.In the case of climate change, the institutional context is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The making of global environmental policy is framed not upon a hypothetical code of international law (there is no such a thing), but upon a body of doctrine arising from consistent reference to a given set of principles. The key principles are sustainability (satisfying the need of present generations without preventing future generations to satisfy theirs), precaution (ignorance is not an excuse for inaction), the common but differentiated responsibility (developed countries take the lead in action against climate change), and economic efficiency (which lead to prefer flexible instruments over blind regulation).Given the scientific controversies and the fuzziness of guiding principles, no clear-cut demonstration could justify the choice of a theoretically optimum course of action, even in the short term. Historically, climate negotiations can be seen as an oscillation between two regulation modes. On one side is coordinated policies and measures, where countries adopt an uniform international rate of carbon tax. On the other side is emission trading, where a defined emission reduction target is allocated to each country.changement climatique; Protocole de Kyoto