Opinion Formation Threshold Estimates from Different Combinations of Social Media Data-Types

Passive consumption of a quantifiable amount of social media information related to a topic can cause individuals to form opinions. If a substantial amount of these individuals are motivated to take action from their recently established opinions, a movement or public opinion shift can be induced independent of the information’s veracity. Given that social media is ubiquitous in modern society, it is imperative that we understand the threshold at which social media data results in opinion formation. The present study estimates population opinion formation thresholds by querying 2222 participants about the number of various social media data-types (i.e., images, videos, and/or messages) that they would need to passively consume to form opinions. Opinion formation is assessed across three dimensions, 1) data-type(s), 2) context, 3) and source. This work provides a theoretical basis for estimating the amount of data needed to influence a population through social media information

Signs of universality in the structure of culture

Understanding the dynamics of opinions, preferences and of culture as whole requires more use of empirical data than has been done so far. It is clear that an important role in driving this dynamics is played by social influence, which is the essential ingredient of many quantitative models. Such models require that all traits are fixed when specifying the "initial cultural state". Typically, this initial state is randomly generated, from a uniform distribution over the set of possible combinations of traits. However, recent work has shown that the outcome of social influence dynamics strongly depends on the nature of the initial state. If the latter is sampled from empirical data instead of being generated in a uniformly random way, a higher level of cultural diversity is found after long-term dynamics, for the same level of propensity towards collective behavior in the short-term. Moreover, if the initial state is randomized by shuffling the empirical traits among people, the level of long-term cultural diversity is in-between those obtained for the empirical and uniformly random counterparts. The current study repeats the analysis for multiple empirical data sets, showing that the results are remarkably similar, although the matrix of correlations between cultural variables clearly differs across data sets. This points towards robust structural properties inherent in empirical cultural states, possibly due to universal laws governing the dynamics of culture in the real world. The results also suggest that this dynamics might be characterized by criticality and involve mechanisms beyond social influence.Comment: 16 pages, 7 figures; the same results as in version 3, but a shorter Introduction, Discussion and Conclusio

Modeling the formation of attentive publics in social media: the case of Donald Trump

Previous research has shown the importance of Donald Trump’s Twitter activity, and that of his Twitter following, in spreading his message during the primary and general election campaigns of 2015–2016. However, we know little about how the publics who followed Trump and amplified his messages took shape. We take this case as an opportunity to theorize and test questions about the assembly of what we call “attentive publics” in social media. We situate our study in the context of current discussions of audience formation, attention flow, and hybridity in the United States’ political media system. From this we derive propositions concerning how attentive publics aggregate around a particular object, in this case Trump himself, which we test using time series modeling. We also present an exploration of the possible role of automated accounts in these processes. Our results reiterate the media hybridity described by others, while emphasizing the importance of news media coverage in building social media attentive publics.Accepted manuscrip

MEASURING FOREST RESOURCE VALUES: AN ASSESSMENT OF CHOICE EXPERIMENTS AND PREFERENCE CONSTRUCTION METHODS AS PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT TOOLS

Human values arising from forests include market and non-market values. Timber values and values of non-timber forest products traded in markets (berries, wild rice, etc.) are considered market values. Among non-market values are recreation values and values associated with wildlife harvesting by Aboriginal People. These are considered non-market because participation in these activities does not require the purchase of market based permits; prices do not function as rationing devices in these activities. In addition to non-market values arising from activities, individuals may also have values associated with forest conditions (biodiversity, etc.). These are referred to as passive use values since the value is not associated with any specific use of the resource or activity related to the forest. Since forests in Canada are largely on public land, these passive use values are particularly relevant to Canadian forest management. These values reveal the preferences of the public for components of forest management. Eliciting these values is a form of public involvement in that the public is engaged in assessing forest management options and providing opinions and sentiments regarding these options. Ideally, values arising from forests would be collected from a broad range of the public and examined to provide guidance to forest managers. However, values over forest outputs and conditions may be very poorly formed when people have little experience with the range and complexity of forest ecology and management. In addition, eliciting values without framing them in a trade-off setting can result in misleading estimates. In this project we attempt to elicit passive use values in a manner that allows for poorly defined initial notions of value through an approach known as preference construction. Preference construction essentially provides for education and information processing in the development of passive use values. These estimates are also developed using a trade-off approach (choice experiments). The project focuses on the values of the local public within the NorSask forest. More formally, the objectives of this research are to: 1) ascertain the passive use values held by local people associated with forests in the NorSask Forest Management License Area; 2) explore differences in preferences based on the degree and frequency of formal preference construction exercises; and 3) evaluate this approach as a method of public involvement. A total of 43 individuals from the local community were involved in the valuation exercise. They participated in 3 groups or treatments, each with a different level of involvement in the valuation assessment. The first group was involved in three separate sessions, allowing for significant preference construction and information acquisition. The second group was involved in only one session and the third group was involved only minimally through a telephone contact and the completion of a survey delivered through the mail. The hypothesis being examined was that the degree of involvement in the exercise would affect the responses either in terms of the variances of the responses or the actual preferences. Not all forest values can be examined in a single valuation task. In this case values associated with key game species (moose), wildlife species reflecting biodiversity or threatened species (caribou), old age classes of forest, protected areas and local employment were assessed. These were selected based on the preference construction sessions with the first group. A general trend was found in the ranking of forest values. The values were highest for increases in older forest age classes and protected areas and lower for caribou and moose levels (expressed in percentage changes relative to current levels). The lowest value arose from the local jobs generated by forestry activity. Monetary measures of these values were also developed. The scenario choices made by the individuals revealed that a 5% increase in moose and caribou populations would be worth approximately $10 and$12 per year. A 5% increases in old age classes or protected areas was worth approximately 4 to 5 times as much. They were willing to pay approximately $7 per year in increased taxes for increases in local employment. The hypothesis that the group preferences would differ was not accepted. The preferences of the first and third groups, while expected to be very different, were in fact quite similar. The second group did appear to be different from these other two but it is possible that significant variation in demographic characteristics was driving that difference, rather than the level of preference construction effort. The sample in the third group did however exhibit more resistance to completing the exercise and registered more protests to the value assessment. In conclusion, the approach employed was successful in eliciting passive use values for components of forest management. These values alone provide interesting information for managers to consider in the development of management plans. Evidence supporting the hypothesis that preference construction approaches improve these valuation exercises was not found in this study although this result must be tempered by the limitations arising from sample size and demographic composition of the study groups.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

The Crowd Classification Problem: Social Dynamics of Binary Choice Accuracy

Decades of research suggest that information exchange in groups and organizations can reliably improve judgment accuracy in tasks such as financial forecasting, market research, and medical decision making. However, we show that improving the accuracy of numeric estimates does not necessarily improve the accuracy of decisions. For binary-choice judgments, also known as classification tasks—for example, yes/no or build/buy decisions—social influence is most likely to grow the majority vote share, regardless of the accuracy of that opinion. As a result, initially, inaccurate groups become increasingly inaccurate after information exchange, even as they signal stronger support. We term this dynamic the “crowd classification problem.” Using both a novel data set and a reanalysis of three previous data sets, we study this process in two types of information exchange: (1) when people share votes only, and (2) when people form and exchange numeric estimates prior to voting. Surprisingly, when people exchange numeric estimates prior to voting, the binary-choice vote can become less accurate, even as the average numeric estimate becomes more accurate. Our findings recommend against voting as a form of decision making when groups are optimizing for accuracy. For those cases where voting is required, we discuss strategies for managing communication to avoid the crowd classification problem. We close with a discussion of how our results contribute to a broader contingency theory of collective intelligence

Threats to soil quality in Denmark - A review of existing knowledge in the context of the EU Soil Thematic Strategy

The EU Commission is preparing a proposal for a Soil Framework Directive with the purpose of protecting the soil resources in Europe. The proposal identifies six major threats to the sustained quality of soils in Europe. This report addresses the threats that are considered most important under the prevailing soil and climatic conditions in Denmark: compaction, soil organic matter decline, and erosion by water and tillage. For each of these threats, the relevance and damage to soil functions as well as the geographic distribution in Denmark are outlined. We suggest a procedure for identifying areas at risk. This exercise involves an explicit identification of: i) the disturbing agent (climate / management) exerting the pressures on soil, and ii) the vulnerability of the soil to those stresses. Risk reduction targets, measures required to reach these targets, and the knowledge gaps and research needs to effectively cope with each threat are discussed. Our evaluation of the threats is based on soil resilience to the imposed stresses. Subsoil compaction is considered a severe threat to Danish soils due to frequent traffic with heavy machinery in modern agriculture and forestry. The soil content of organic matter is critically low for a range of Danish soils, which should be counteracted by appropriate management options. Soil erosion by tillage, and to a lesser degree by water, adversely affects soil quality on much of the farmland because degradation rates are much higher than generation of soil