An Ensemble-based Approach to Click-Through Rate Prediction for Promoted Listings at Etsy

Etsy is a global marketplace where people across the world connect to make, buy and sell unique goods. Sellers at Etsy can promote their product listings via advertising campaigns similar to traditional sponsored search ads. Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction is an integral part of online search advertising systems where it is utilized as an input to auctions which determine the final ranking of promoted listings to a particular user for each query. In this paper, we provide a holistic view of Etsy's promoted listings' CTR prediction system and propose an ensemble learning approach which is based on historical or behavioral signals for older listings as well as content-based features for new listings. We obtain representations from texts and images by utilizing state-of-the-art deep learning techniques and employ multimodal learning to combine these different signals. We compare the system to non-trivial baselines on a large-scale real world dataset from Etsy, demonstrating the effectiveness of the model and strong correlations between offline experiments and online performance. The paper is also the first technical overview to this kind of product in e-commerce context

Learning Policies from Self-Play with Policy Gradients and MCTS Value Estimates

In recent years, state-of-the-art game-playing agents often involve policies that are trained in self-playing processes where Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) algorithms and trained policies iteratively improve each other. The strongest results have been obtained when policies are trained to mimic the search behaviour of MCTS by minimising a cross-entropy loss. Because MCTS, by design, includes an element of exploration, policies trained in this manner are also likely to exhibit a similar extent of exploration. In this paper, we are interested in learning policies for a project with future goals including the extraction of interpretable strategies, rather than state-of-the-art game-playing performance. For these goals, we argue that such an extent of exploration is undesirable, and we propose a novel objective function for training policies that are not exploratory. We derive a policy gradient expression for maximising this objective function, which can be estimated using MCTS value estimates, rather than MCTS visit counts. We empirically evaluate various properties of resulting policies, in a variety of board games.Comment: Accepted at the IEEE Conference on Games (CoG) 201

Statistical framework for video decoding complexity modeling and prediction

Video decoding complexity modeling and prediction is an increasingly important issue for efficient resource utilization in a variety of applications, including task scheduling, receiver-driven complexity shaping, and adaptive dynamic voltage scaling. In this paper we present a novel view of this problem based on a statistical framework perspective. We explore the statistical structure (clustering) of the execution time required by each video decoder module (entropy decoding, motion compensation, etc.) in conjunction with complexity features that are easily extractable at encoding time (representing the properties of each module's input source data). For this purpose, we employ Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) and an expectation-maximization algorithm to estimate the joint execution-time - feature probability density function (PDF). A training set of typical video sequences is used for this purpose in an offline estimation process. The obtained GMM representation is used in conjunction with the complexity features of new video sequences to predict the execution time required for the decoding of these sequences. Several prediction approaches are discussed and compared. The potential mismatch between the training set and new video content is addressed by adaptive online joint-PDF re-estimation. An experimental comparison is performed to evaluate the different approaches and compare the proposed prediction scheme with related resource prediction schemes from the literature. The usefulness of the proposed complexity-prediction approaches is demonstrated in an application of rate-distortion-complexity optimized decoding

DanQ: a hybrid convolutional and recurrent deep neural network for quantifying the function of DNA sequences.

Modeling the properties and functions of DNA sequences is an important, but challenging task in the broad field of genomics. This task is particularly difficult for non-coding DNA, the vast majority of which is still poorly understood in terms of function. A powerful predictive model for the function of non-coding DNA can have enormous benefit for both basic science and translational research because over 98% of the human genome is non-coding and 93% of disease-associated variants lie in these regions. To address this need, we propose DanQ, a novel hybrid convolutional and bi-directional long short-term memory recurrent neural network framework for predicting non-coding function de novo from sequence. In the DanQ model, the convolution layer captures regulatory motifs, while the recurrent layer captures long-term dependencies between the motifs in order to learn a regulatory 'grammar' to improve predictions. DanQ improves considerably upon other models across several metrics. For some regulatory markers, DanQ can achieve over a 50% relative improvement in the area under the precision-recall curve metric compared to related models. We have made the source code available at the github repository http://github.com/uci-cbcl/DanQ

Anchor Loss: Modulating Loss Scale Based on Prediction Difficulty

We propose a novel loss function that dynamically re-scales the cross entropy based on prediction difficulty regarding a sample. Deep neural network architectures in image classification tasks struggle to disambiguate visually similar objects. Likewise, in human pose estimation symmetric body parts often confuse the network with assigning indiscriminative scores to them. This is due to the output prediction, in which only the highest confidence label is selected without taking into consideration a measure of uncertainty. In this work, we define the prediction difficulty as a relative property coming from the confidence score gap between positive and negative labels. More precisely, the proposed loss function penalizes the network to avoid the score of a false prediction being significant. To demonstrate the efficacy of our loss function, we evaluate it on two different domains: image classification and human pose estimation. We find improvements in both applications by achieving higher accuracy compared to the baseline methods