Demand Prediction and Inventory Management of Surgical Supplies

Effective supply chain management is critical to operations in various industries, including healthcare. Demand prediction and inventory management are essential parts of healthcare supply chain management for ensuring optimal patient outcomes, controlling costs, and minimizing waste. The advances in data analytics and technology have enabled many sophisticated approaches to demand forecasting and inventory control. This study aims to leverage these advancements to accurately predict demand and manage the inventory of surgical supplies to reduce costs and provide better services to patients. In order to achieve this objective, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model is developed to predict the demand for commonly used surgical supplies. Moreover, the volume of scheduled surgeries influences the demand for certain surgical supplies. Hence, another LSTM model is adopted from the literature to forecast surgical case volumes and predict the procedure-specific surgical supplies. A few new features are incorporated into the adopted model to account for the variations in the surgical case volumes caused by COVID-19 in 2020. This study then develops a multi-item capacitated dynamic lot-sizing replenishment model using Mixed Integer Programming (MIP). However, forecasting is always considered inaccurate, and demand is hardly deterministic in the real world. Therefore, a Two-Stage Stochastic Programming (TSSP) model is developed to address these issues. Experimental results demonstrate that the TSSP model provides an additional benefit of $2,328.304 over the MIP model

Demand Prediction and Inventory Management of Surgical Supplies

Effective supply chain management is critical to operations in various industries, including healthcare. Demand prediction and inventory management are essential parts of healthcare supply chain management for ensuring optimal patient outcomes, controlling costs, and minimizing waste. The advances in data analytics and technology have enabled many sophisticated approaches to demand forecasting and inventory control. This study aims to leverage these advancements to accurately predict demand and manage the inventory of surgical supplies to reduce costs and provide better services to patients. In order to achieve this objective, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model is developed to predict the demand for commonly used surgical supplies. Moreover, the volume of scheduled surgeries influences the demand for certain surgical supplies. Hence, another LSTM model is adopted from the literature to forecast surgical case volumes and predict the procedure-specific surgical supplies. A few new features are incorporated into the adopted model to account for the variations in the surgical case volumes caused by COVID-19 in 2020. This study then develops a multi-item capacitated dynamic lot-sizing replenishment model using Mixed Integer Programming (MIP). However, forecasting is always considered inaccurate, and demand is hardly deterministic in the real world. Therefore, a Two-Stage Stochastic Programming (TSSP) model is developed to address these issues. Experimental results demonstrate that the TSSP model provides an additional benefit of $2,328.304 over the MIP model

Comparison of different approaches to multistage lot sizing with uncertain demand

We study a new variant of the classical lot sizing problem with uncertain demand where neither the planning horizon nor demands are known exactly. This situation arises in practice when customer demands arriving over time are confirmed rather lately during the transportation process. In terms of planning, this setting necessitates a rolling horizon procedure where the overall multistage problem is dissolved into a series of coupled snapshot problems under uncertainty. Depending on the available data and risk disposition, different approaches from online optimization, stochastic programming, and robust optimization are viable to model and solve the snapshot problems. We evaluate the impact of the selected methodology on the overall solution quality using a methodology-agnostic framework for multistage decision-making under uncertainty. We provide computational results on lot sizing within a rolling horizon regarding different types of uncertainty, solution approaches, and the value of available information about upcoming demands

Developing Inventory Management in Hospital

Single inventory policy has been applied to entire types of drugs in hospitals, despite several different drug and demand characteristics. Shortages regularly occur, which may affect patients lives, especially when vital drugs are being administered to them. However, hospitals cannot store a large amount of every drug because of limited space and budget. The objective of this study was to develop a hospital inventory management system to minimise the total inventory costs, while maintaining patient safety levels. This study is concerned only with the medicines that have a high consumption value and took place in a large public hospital in Thailand. The most suitable policies are proposed for each drug category with the best performance obtained.The historical demand is classified by drug characteristics, consumption value and clinical importance, as well as the demand characteristics. We applied it and compared it with the current inventory policy (Min/Max), and inventory policies from previous studies, in order to investigate the most suitable inventory policy for each drug category and demand characteristic. The study found that a single inventory management system cannot be effectively applied for all medicines. This is because there are also categories of medicines characterised by their value and clinical importance. This is called the ABC/VEN classification. The inventory management in hospitals should be fitted to drug categories and demand characteristics, which are quite unique in the healthcare supply chain and are different from those applied to [KK1]general manufacturing. [KK1]I put this in to highlight the difference

Optimizing lot sizing model for perishable bread products using genetic algorithm

This research addresses order planning challenges related to perishable products, using bread products as a case study. The problem is how to effi­ci­ently manage the various bread products ordered by diverse customers, which requires distributors to determine the optimal number of products to order from suppliers. This study aims to formulate the problem as a lot-sizing model, considering various factors, including customer demand, in­ven­tory constraints, ordering capacity, return rate, and defect rate, to achieve a near or optimal solution, Therefore determining the optimal order quantity to reduce the total ordering cost becomes a challenge in this study. However, most lot sizing problems are combinatorial and difficult to solve. Thus, this study uses the Genetic Algorithm (GA) as the main method to solve the lot sizing model and determine the optimal number of bread products to order. With GA, experiments have been conducted by combining the values of population, crossover, mutation, and generation parameters to maximize the feasibility value that represents the minimal total cost. The results obtained from the application of GA demonstrate its effectiveness in generating near or optimal solutions while also showing fast computational performance. By utilizing GA, distributors can effectively minimize wastage arising from expired or perishable products while simultaneously meeting customer demand more efficiently. As such, this research makes a significant contri­bution to the development of more effective and intelligent decision-making strategies in the domain of perishable products in bread distribution.Penelitian ini berfokus untuk mengatasi tantangan perencanaan pemesanan yang berkaitan dengan produk yang mudah rusak, dengan menggunakan produk roti sebagai studi kasus. Permasalahan yang dihadapi adalah bagaimana mengelola berbagai produk roti yang dipesan oleh pelanggan yang beragam secara efisien, yang mengharuskan distributor untuk menentukan jumlah produk yang optimal untuk dipesan dari pemasok. Untuk mencapai solusi yang optimal, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memformulasikan masalah tersebut sebagai model lot-sizing, dengan mempertimbangkan berbagai faktor, termasuk permintaan pelanggan, kendala persediaan, kapasitas pemesanan, tingkat pengembalian, dan tingkat cacat. Oleh karena itu, menentukan jumlah pemesanan yang optimal untuk mengurangi total biaya pemesanan menjadi tantangan dalam penelitian ini. Namun, sebagian besar masalah lot sizing bersifat kombinatorial dan sulit untuk dipecahkan, oleh karena itu, penelitian ini menggunakan Genetic Algorithm (GA) sebagai metode utama untuk menyelesaikan model lot sizing dan menentukan jumlah produk roti yang optimal untuk dipesan. Dengan GA, telah dilakukan percobaan dengan mengkombinasikan nilai parameter populasi, crossover, mutasi, dan generasi untuk memaksimalkan nilai kelayakan yang merepresentasikan total biaya yang minimal. Hasil yang diperoleh dari penerapan GA menunjukkan keefektifannya dalam menghasilkan solusi yang optimal, selain itu juga menunjukkan kinerja komputasi yang cepat. Dengan menggunakan GA, distributor dapat secara efektif meminimalkan pemborosan yang timbul akibat produk yang kadaluarsa atau mudah rusak, sekaligus memenuhi permintaan pelanggan dengan lebih efisien. Dengan demikian, penelitian ini memberikan kontribusi yang signifikan terhadap pengembangan strategi pengambilan keputusan yang lebih efektif dan cerdas dalam domain produk yang mudah rusak dalam distribusi roti

Supply chain collaboration

In the past, research in operations management focused on single-firm analysis. Its goal was to provide managers in practice with suitable tools to improve the performance of their firm by calculating optimal inventory quantities, among others. Nowadays, business decisions are dominated by the globalization of markets and increased competition among firms. Further, more and more products reach the customer through supply chains that are composed of independent firms. Following these trends, research in operations management has shifted its focus from single-firm analysis to multi-firm analysis, in particular to improving the efficiency and performance of supply chains under decentralized control. The main characteristics of such chains are that the firms in the chain are independent actors who try to optimize their individual objectives, and that the decisions taken by a firm do also affect the performance of the other parties in the supply chain. These interactions among firms’ decisions ask for alignment and coordination of actions. Therefore, game theory, the study of situations of cooperation or conflict among heterogenous actors, is very well suited to deal with these interactions. This has been recognized by researchers in the field, since there are an ever increasing number of papers that applies tools, methods and models from game theory to supply chain problems

Periodic-Review Policy for a 2-Echelon Inventory Problem with Seasonal Demand

This paper studies a two-level inventory system with one warehouse and n retailers under seasonal demand.  All locations apply periodic review base-stock policy with echelon stock concept.  The objective is to determine the inventory policy with minimum inventory cost respected to required service level.  Three alternatives to determine inventory policies are proposed which are upper, lower and EOQ alternatives.  Among these alternatives, it is found that, in case of positive ordering cost, upper-alternative policies give the lowest cost which is around 11% lower than other policies.  In case of zero ordering cost, EOQ-alternative policies give the lowest cost which is around 20% lower than other policies.  However, lower-alternative policies lead to the lower demand loss, its average loss is 0.07% while other policies’ loss can be as high as 0.22%

A Fuzzy Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) Model with Consideration of Quality Items, Inspection Errors and Sales Return

In this paper, we develop an economic order quantity model with imperfect quality, inspection errors and sales returns, where upon the arrival of order lot, 100% screening process is performed and the items of imperfect quality are sold as a single batch at a lessen price, prior to receiving the next shipment. The screening process to remove the defective items may involve two types of errors. In this article we extend the Khan et al. (2011) model by considering demand and defective rate in fuzzy sense and also sales return in our model. The objective is to determine the optimal order lot size to maximize the total profit. We use the signed distance, a ranking method for fuzzy numbers, to find the approximate of total profit per unit time in the fuzzy sense. The impact of fuzziness of fraction of defectives and demand rate on optimal solution is showed by numerical example

Pricing and inventory control policy for non-instantaneous deteriorating items with time- and price-dependent demand and partial backlogging

Determining the optimal inventory control and selling price for deteriorating items is of great significance. In this paper, a joint pricing and inventory control model for deteriorating items with price- and time-dependent demand rate and time-dependent deteriorating rate with partial backlogging is considered. The objective is to determine the optimal price, the replenishment time, and economic order quantity such that the total profit per unit time is maximized. After modeling the problem, an algorithm is proposed to solve the resulted problem. We also prove that the problem statement is concave function and the optimal solution is indeed global