Incremental Predictive Process Monitoring: How to Deal with the Variability of Real Environments

A characteristic of existing predictive process monitoring techniques is to first construct a predictive model based on past process executions, and then use it to predict the future of new ongoing cases, without the possibility of updating it with new cases when they complete their execution. This can make predictive process monitoring too rigid to deal with the variability of processes working in real environments that continuously evolve and/or exhibit new variant behaviors over time. As a solution to this problem, we propose the use of algorithms that allow the incremental construction of the predictive model. These incremental learning algorithms update the model whenever new cases become available so that the predictive model evolves over time to fit the current circumstances. The algorithms have been implemented using different case encoding strategies and evaluated on a number of real and synthetic datasets. The results provide a first evidence of the potential of incremental learning strategies for predicting process monitoring in real environments, and of the impact of different case encoding strategies in this setting

Heuristics Miners for Streaming Event Data

More and more business activities are performed using information systems. These systems produce such huge amounts of event data that existing systems are unable to store and process them. Moreover, few processes are in steady-state and due to changing circumstances processes evolve and systems need to adapt continuously. Since conventional process discovery algorithms have been defined for batch processing, it is difficult to apply them in such evolving environments. Existing algorithms cannot cope with streaming event data and tend to generate unreliable and obsolete results. In this paper, we discuss the peculiarities of dealing with streaming event data in the context of process mining. Subsequently, we present a general framework for defining process mining algorithms in settings where it is impossible to store all events over an extended period or where processes evolve while being analyzed. We show how the Heuristics Miner, one of the most effective process discovery algorithms for practical applications, can be modified using this framework. Different stream-aware versions of the Heuristics Miner are defined and implemented in ProM. Moreover, experimental results on artificial and real logs are reported