Simple Regret Optimization in Online Planning for Markov Decision Processes

We consider online planning in Markov decision processes (MDPs). In online planning, the agent focuses on its current state only, deliberates about the set of possible policies from that state onwards and, when interrupted, uses the outcome of that exploratory deliberation to choose what action to perform next. The performance of algorithms for online planning is assessed in terms of simple regret, which is the agent's expected performance loss when the chosen action, rather than an optimal one, is followed. To date, state-of-the-art algorithms for online planning in general MDPs are either best effort, or guarantee only polynomial-rate reduction of simple regret over time. Here we introduce a new Monte-Carlo tree search algorithm, BRUE, that guarantees exponential-rate reduction of simple regret and error probability. This algorithm is based on a simple yet non-standard state-space sampling scheme, MCTS2e, in which different parts of each sample are dedicated to different exploratory objectives. Our empirical evaluation shows that BRUE not only provides superior performance guarantees, but is also very effective in practice and favorably compares to state-of-the-art. We then extend BRUE with a variant of "learning by forgetting." The resulting set of algorithms, BRUE(alpha), generalizes BRUE, improves the exponential factor in the upper bound on its reduction rate, and exhibits even more attractive empirical performance

Online Markov decision processes under bandit feedback

Abstract—We consider online learning in finite stochastic Markovian environments where in each time step a new reward function is chosen by an oblivious adversary. The goal of the learning agent is to compete with the best stationary policy in hindsight in terms of the total reward received. Specifically, in each time step the agent observes the current state and the reward associated with the last transition, however, the agent does not observe the rewards associated with other state-action pairs. The agent is assumed to know the transition probabilities. The state of the art result for this setting is an algorithm with an expected regret of O(T 2/3 ln T). In this paper, assuming that stationary policies mix uniformly fast, we show that after T time steps, the expected regret of this algorithm (more precisely, a slightly modified version thereof) is O ( T 1/2 ln T) , giving the first rigorously proven, essentially tight regret bound for the problem. /01*2';<= ';<= ';<= ' r