175,074 research outputs found
Online Learning of Dynamic Parameters in Social Networks
This paper addresses the problem of online learning in a dynamic setting. We
consider a social network in which each individual observes a private signal
about the underlying state of the world and communicates with her neighbors at
each time period. Unlike many existing approaches, the underlying state is
dynamic, and evolves according to a geometric random walk. We view the scenario
as an optimization problem where agents aim to learn the true state while
suffering the smallest possible loss. Based on the decomposition of the global
loss function, we introduce two update mechanisms, each of which generates an
estimate of the true state. We establish a tight bound on the rate of change of
the underlying state, under which individuals can track the parameter with a
bounded variance. Then, we characterize explicit expressions for the steady
state mean-square deviation(MSD) of the estimates from the truth, per
individual. We observe that only one of the estimators recovers the optimal
MSD, which underscores the impact of the objective function decomposition on
the learning quality. Finally, we provide an upper bound on the regret of the
proposed methods, measured as an average of errors in estimating the parameter
in a finite time.Comment: 12 pages, To appear in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS)
201
Are you going to the party: depends, who else is coming? [Learning hidden group dynamics via conditional latent tree models]
Scalable probabilistic modeling and prediction in high dimensional
multivariate time-series is a challenging problem, particularly for systems
with hidden sources of dependence and/or homogeneity. Examples of such problems
include dynamic social networks with co-evolving nodes and edges and dynamic
student learning in online courses. Here, we address these problems through the
discovery of hierarchical latent groups. We introduce a family of Conditional
Latent Tree Models (CLTM), in which tree-structured latent variables
incorporate the unknown groups. The latent tree itself is conditioned on
observed covariates such as seasonality, historical activity, and node
attributes. We propose a statistically efficient framework for learning both
the hierarchical tree structure and the parameters of the CLTM. We demonstrate
competitive performance in multiple real world datasets from different domains.
These include a dataset on students' attempts at answering questions in a
psychology MOOC, Twitter users participating in an emergency management
discussion and interacting with one another, and windsurfers interacting on a
beach in Southern California. In addition, our modeling framework provides
valuable and interpretable information about the hidden group structures and
their effect on the evolution of the time series
Modeling Information Acquisition and Social Learning Dynamics: A Rational Inattention Perspective
Social learning, a fundamental process through which individuals shape their
beliefs and perspectives via observation and interaction with others, is
critical for the development of our society and the functioning of social
governance. Prior works on social learning usually assume that the initial
beliefs are given and focus on the update rule. With the recent proliferation
of online social networks, there is an avalanche amount of information, which
may significantly influence users' initial beliefs. In this paper, we use the
rational inattention theory to model how agents acquire information to form
initial beliefs and assess its influence on their adjustments in beliefs.
Furthermore, we analyze the dynamic evolution of belief distribution among
agents. Simulations and social experiments are conducted to validate our
proposed model and analyze the impact of model parameters on belief dynamics.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, submitted to ICASSP 202
A survey of statistical network models
Networks are ubiquitous in science and have become a focal point for
discussion in everyday life. Formal statistical models for the analysis of
network data have emerged as a major topic of interest in diverse areas of
study, and most of these involve a form of graphical representation.
Probability models on graphs date back to 1959. Along with empirical studies in
social psychology and sociology from the 1960s, these early works generated an
active network community and a substantial literature in the 1970s. This effort
moved into the statistical literature in the late 1970s and 1980s, and the past
decade has seen a burgeoning network literature in statistical physics and
computer science. The growth of the World Wide Web and the emergence of online
networking communities such as Facebook, MySpace, and LinkedIn, and a host of
more specialized professional network communities has intensified interest in
the study of networks and network data. Our goal in this review is to provide
the reader with an entry point to this burgeoning literature. We begin with an
overview of the historical development of statistical network modeling and then
we introduce a number of examples that have been studied in the network
literature. Our subsequent discussion focuses on a number of prominent static
and dynamic network models and their interconnections. We emphasize formal
model descriptions, and pay special attention to the interpretation of
parameters and their estimation. We end with a description of some open
problems and challenges for machine learning and statistics.Comment: 96 pages, 14 figures, 333 reference
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