Online change detection in exponential families with unknown parameters

International audienceThis paper studies online change detection in exponential families when both the parameters before and after change are unknown. We follow a standard statistical approach to sequential change detection with generalized likelihood ratio test statistics. We interpret these statistics within the framework of information geometry, hence providing a unified view of change detection for many common statistical models and corresponding distance functions. Using results from convex duality, we also derive an efficient scheme to compute the exact statistics sequentially, which allows their use in online settings where they are usually approximated for the sake of tractability. This is applied to real-world datasets of various natures, including onset detection in audio signals

Sequential anomaly detection in the presence of noise and limited feedback

This paper describes a methodology for detecting anomalies from sequentially observed and potentially noisy data. The proposed approach consists of two main elements: (1) {\em filtering}, or assigning a belief or likelihood to each successive measurement based upon our ability to predict it from previous noisy observations, and (2) {\em hedging}, or flagging potential anomalies by comparing the current belief against a time-varying and data-adaptive threshold. The threshold is adjusted based on the available feedback from an end user. Our algorithms, which combine universal prediction with recent work on online convex programming, do not require computing posterior distributions given all current observations and involve simple primal-dual parameter updates. At the heart of the proposed approach lie exponential-family models which can be used in a wide variety of contexts and applications, and which yield methods that achieve sublinear per-round regret against both static and slowly varying product distributions with marginals drawn from the same exponential family. Moreover, the regret against static distributions coincides with the minimax value of the corresponding online strongly convex game. We also prove bounds on the number of mistakes made during the hedging step relative to the best offline choice of the threshold with access to all estimated beliefs and feedback signals. We validate the theory on synthetic data drawn from a time-varying distribution over binary vectors of high dimensionality, as well as on the Enron email dataset.Comment: 19 pages, 12 pdf figures; final version to be published in IEEE Transactions on Information Theor

Sparse Signal Recovery under Poisson Statistics

We are motivated by problems that arise in a number of applications such as Online Marketing and explosives detection, where the observations are usually modeled using Poisson statistics. We model each observation as a Poisson random variable whose mean is a sparse linear superposition of known patterns. Unlike many conventional problems observations here are not identically distributed since they are associated with different sensing modalities. We analyze the performance of a Maximum Likelihood (ML) decoder, which for our Poisson setting involves a non-linear optimization but yet is computationally tractable. We derive fundamental sample complexity bounds for sparse recovery when the measurements are contaminated with Poisson noise. In contrast to the least-squares linear regression setting with Gaussian noise, we observe that in addition to sparsity, the scale of the parameters also fundamentally impacts sample complexity. We introduce a novel notion of Restricted Likelihood Perturbation (RLP), to jointly account for scale and sparsity. We derive sample complexity bounds for $\ell_1$ regularized ML estimators in terms of RLP and further specialize these results for deterministic and random sensing matrix designs.Comment: 13 pages, 11 figures, 2 tables, submitted to IEEE Transactions on Signal Processin