Measuring the Eccentricity of Items

The long-tail phenomenon tells us that there are many items in the tail. However, not all tail items are the same. Each item acquires different kinds of users. Some items are loved by the general public, while some items are consumed by eccentric fans. In this paper, we propose a novel metric, item eccentricity, to incorporate this difference between consumers of the items. Eccentric items are defined as items that are consumed by eccentric users. We used this metric to analyze two real-world datasets of music and movies and observed the characteristics of items in terms of eccentricity. The results showed that our defined eccentricity of an item does not change much over time, and classified eccentric and noneccentric items present significantly distinct characteristics. The proposed metric effectively separates the eccentric and noneccentric items mixed in the tail, which could not be done with the previous measures, which only consider the popularity of items.Comment: Accepted at IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics (SMC) 201

Temporal effects in trend prediction: identifying the most popular nodes in the future

Prediction is an important problem in different science domains. In this paper, we focus on trend prediction in complex networks, i.e. to identify the most popular nodes in the future. Due to the preferential attachment mechanism in real systems, nodes' recent degree and cumulative degree have been successfully applied to design trend prediction methods. Here we took into account more detailed information about the network evolution and proposed a temporal-based predictor (TBP). The TBP predicts the future trend by the node strength in the weighted network with the link weight equal to its exponential aging. Three data sets with time information are used to test the performance of the new method. We find that TBP have high general accuracy in predicting the future most popular nodes. More importantly, it can identify many potential objects with low popularity in the past but high popularity in the future. The effect of the decay speed in the exponential aging on the results is discussed in detail

Discovering items with potential popularity on social media

Predicting the future popularity of online content is highly important in many applications. Preferential attachment phenomena is encountered in scale free networks.Under it's influece popular items get more popular thereby resulting in long tailed distribution problem. Consequently, new items which can be popular (potential ones), are suppressed by the already popular items. This paper proposes a novel model which is able to identify potential items. It identifies the potentially popular items by considering the number of links or ratings it has recieved in recent past along with it's popularity decay. For obtaining an effecient model we consider only temporal features of the content, avoiding the cost of extracting other features. We have found that people follow recent behaviours of their peers. In presence of fit or quality items already popular items lose it's popularity. Prediction accuracy is measured on three industrial datasets namely Movielens, Netflix and Facebook wall post. Experimental results show that compare to state-of-the-art model our model have better prediction accuracy.Comment: 7 pages in ACM style.7 figures and 1 tabl

Long Trend Dynamics in Social Media

A main characteristic of social media is that its diverse content, copiously generated by both standard outlets and general users, constantly competes for the scarce attention of large audiences. Out of this flood of information some topics manage to get enough attention to become the most popular ones and thus to be prominently displayed as trends. Equally important, some of these trends persist long enough so as to shape part of the social agenda. How this happens is the focus of this paper. By introducing a stochastic dynamical model that takes into account the user's repeated involvement with given topics, we can predict the distribution of trend durations as well as the thresholds in popularity that lead to their emergence within social media. Detailed measurements of datasets from Twitter confirm the validity of the model and its predictions

Attention and Visibility in an Information Rich World

As the rate of content production grows, we must make a staggering number of daily decisions about what information is worth acting on. For any flourishing online social media system, users can barely keep up with the new content shared by friends. How does the user-interface design help or hinder users' ability to find interesting content? We analyze the choices people make about which information to propagate on the social media sites Twitter and Digg. We observe regularities in behavior which can be attributed directly to cognitive limitations of humans, resulting from the different visibility policies of each site. We quantify how people divide their limited attention among competing sources of information, and we show how the user-interface design can mediate information spread.Comment: Appearing in 2nd International Workshop on Social Multimedia Research 2013, in conjunction with IEEE International Conference on Multimedia & Expo (ICME 2013

Current Challenges and Visions in Music Recommender Systems Research

Music recommender systems (MRS) have experienced a boom in recent years, thanks to the emergence and success of online streaming services, which nowadays make available almost all music in the world at the user's fingertip. While today's MRS considerably help users to find interesting music in these huge catalogs, MRS research is still facing substantial challenges. In particular when it comes to build, incorporate, and evaluate recommendation strategies that integrate information beyond simple user--item interactions or content-based descriptors, but dig deep into the very essence of listener needs, preferences, and intentions, MRS research becomes a big endeavor and related publications quite sparse. The purpose of this trends and survey article is twofold. We first identify and shed light on what we believe are the most pressing challenges MRS research is facing, from both academic and industry perspectives. We review the state of the art towards solving these challenges and discuss its limitations. Second, we detail possible future directions and visions we contemplate for the further evolution of the field. The article should therefore serve two purposes: giving the interested reader an overview of current challenges in MRS research and providing guidance for young researchers by identifying interesting, yet under-researched, directions in the field

Early Prediction of Movie Box Office Success based on Wikipedia Activity Big Data

Use of socially generated "big data" to access information about collective states of the minds in human societies has become a new paradigm in the emerging field of computational social science. A natural application of this would be the prediction of the society's reaction to a new product in the sense of popularity and adoption rate. However, bridging the gap between "real time monitoring" and "early predicting" remains a big challenge. Here we report on an endeavor to build a minimalistic predictive model for the financial success of movies based on collective activity data of online users. We show that the popularity of a movie can be predicted much before its release by measuring and analyzing the activity level of editors and viewers of the corresponding entry to the movie in Wikipedia, the well-known online encyclopedia.Comment: 13 pages, Including Supporting Information, 7 Figures, Download the dataset from: http://wwm.phy.bme.hu/SupplementaryDataS1.zi