The Three-Dimensional Mass Distribution in NGC 1700

A variety of modeling techniques is used with surface photometry from the literature and recently acquired high-accuracy stellar kinematic data to constrain the three-dimensional mass distribution in the luminous cuspy elliptical galaxy NGC 1700. First, we model the radial velocity field and photometry, and, using a Bayesian technique, estimate the triaxiality T and short-to-long axis ratio c in five concentric annuli between approximately 1 and 3 effective radii. The results are completely consistent with T being constant inside about 2.5 r_e (36 arcsec; 6.7/h kpc). Adding an assumption of constant T as prior information gives an upper limit of T < 0.16 (95% confidence); this relaxes to T < 0.22 if it is also assumed that there is perfect alignment between the angular momentum and the galaxy's intrinsic short axis. Near axisymmetry permits us then to use axisymmetric models to constrain the radial mass profile. Using the Jeans (moment) equations, we demonstrate that 2-integral, constant-M/L models cannot fit the data; but a 2-integral model in which the cumulative enclosed M/L increases by a factor of roughly 2 from the center out to 12/h kpc can. Three-integral models constructed by quadratic programming show that, in fact, no constant-M/L model is consistent with the kinematics. Anisotropic 3-integral models with variable M/L, while not uniquely establishing a minimum acceptable halo mass, imply, as do the moment models, a cumulative M/L_B approximately 10 h at 12/h kpc. We conclude that NGC 1700 represents the best stellar dynamical evidence to date for dark matter in elliptical galaxies.Comment: 26 pages, Latex, AASTeX v4.0, with 11 eps figures. To appear in The Astronomical Journal, January 1999. Figures 1 and 3 are color but are readable in b/

Multitarget tracking and terrain-aided navigation using square-root consider filters

Filtering is a term used to describe methods that estimate the values of partially observed states, such as the position, velocity, and attitude of a vehicle, using current observations that are corrupted due to various sources, such as measurement noise, transmission dropouts, and spurious information. The study of filtering has been an active focus of research for decades, and the resulting filters have been the cornerstone of many of humankind\u27s greatest technological achievements. However, these achievements are enabled principally by the use of specialized techniques that seek to, in some way, combat the negative impacts that processor roundoff and truncation error have on filtering. Two of these specialized techniques are known as square-root filters and consider filters. The former alleviates the fragility induced from estimating error covariance matrices by, instead, managing a factorized representation of that matrix, known as a square-root factor. The latter chooses to account for the statistical impacts a troublesome system parameter has on the overall state estimate without directly estimating it, and the result is a substantial reduction in numerical sensitivity to errors in that parameter. While both of these techniques have found widespread use in practical application, they have never been unified in a common square-root consider framework. Furthermore, consider filters are historically rooted to standard, vector-valued estimation techniques, and they have yet to be generalized to the emerging, set-valued estimation tools for multitarget tracking. In this dissertation, formulae for the square-root consider filter are derived, and the result is extended to finite set statistics-based multitarget tracking tools. These results are used to propose a terrain-aided navigation concept wherein data regarding a vehicle\u27s environment is used to improve its state estimate, and square-root consider techniques provide the numerical stability necessary for an onboard navigation application. The newly developed square-root consider techniques are shown to be much more stable than standard formulations, and the terrain-aided navigation concept is applied to a lunar landing scenario to illustrate its applicability to navigating in challenging environments --Abstract, page iii

The Equity Premium and Structural Breaks

A long return history is useful in estimating the current equity premium even if the historical distribution has experienced structural breaks. The long series helps not only if the timing of breaks is uncertain but also if one believes that large shifts in the premium are unlikely or that the premium is associated, in part, with volatility. Our framework incorporates these features along with a belief that prices are likely to move opposite to contemporaneous shifts in the premium. The estimated premium since 1834 fluctuates between four and six percent and exhibits its sharpest drop in the last decade.

GREAT3 results I: systematic errors in shear estimation and the impact of real galaxy morphology

We present first results from the third GRavitational lEnsing Accuracy Testing (GREAT3) challenge, the third in a sequence of challenges for testing methods of inferring weak gravitational lensing shear distortions from simulated galaxy images. GREAT3 was divided into experiments to test three specific questions, and included simulated space- and ground-based data with constant or cosmologically-varying shear fields. The simplest (control) experiment included parametric galaxies with a realistic distribution of signal-to-noise, size, and ellipticity, and a complex point spread function (PSF). The other experiments tested the additional impact of realistic galaxy morphology, multiple exposure imaging, and the uncertainty about a spatially-varying PSF; the last two questions will be explored in Paper II. The 24 participating teams competed to estimate lensing shears to within systematic error tolerances for upcoming Stage-IV dark energy surveys, making 1525 submissions overall. GREAT3 saw considerable variety and innovation in the types of methods applied. Several teams now meet or exceed the targets in many of the tests conducted (to within the statistical errors). We conclude that the presence of realistic galaxy morphology in simulations changes shear calibration biases by $\sim 1$ per cent for a wide range of methods. Other effects such as truncation biases due to finite galaxy postage stamps, and the impact of galaxy type as measured by the S\'{e}rsic index, are quantified for the first time. Our results generalize previous studies regarding sensitivities to galaxy size and signal-to-noise, and to PSF properties such as seeing and defocus. Almost all methods' results support the simple model in which additive shear biases depend linearly on PSF ellipticity.Comment: 32 pages + 15 pages of technical appendices; 28 figures; submitted to MNRAS; latest version has minor updates in presentation of 4 figures, no changes in content or conclusion