Tacit knowledge and the biological weapons regime

Bioterrorism has become increasingly salient in security discourse in part because of perceived changes in the capacity and geography of life science research. Yet its salience is founded upon a framing of changes in science and security that does not always take into consideration the somewhat slippery concept of ‘tacit knowledge’, something poorly understood, disparately conceptualised and often marginalised in discussions on state and non-state biological weapons programmes. This paper looks at how changes in science and technology—particularly the evolution of information and communications technology—has contributed to the partial erosion of aspects of tacit knowledge and the implications for the biological weapons regime. This paper concludes by arguing that the marginalisation of tacit knowledge weakens our understanding of the difficulties encountered in biological weapons programmes and can result in distorted perceptions of the threat posed by dual-use biotechnology in the 21st century

Disaster management and its economic implications

Das Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, aktuelle Forschungsschwerpunkte im Bereich des Katastrophenmanagements in der Operational Research Literatur aufzuzeigen. Katastrophenmanagement umfasst in diesem Zusammenhang einerseits Naturkatastrophen wie geophysikalische und hydro-meteorologische Katastrophen, technologische Katastrophen wie industrielle Unfälle, Transportunfälle und sonstige Unfälle, und andererseits die verschiedenen Formen des Terrorismus, allgemeinen Terrorismus sowie Bioterrorismus. Da die Anzahl und das Ausmaß von Katastrophen immer weiter zunehmen ist auch eine immer größere Notwendigkeit für die Entwicklung, den Einsatz und die wirtschaftliche Beurteilung der jeweiligen Strategien gegeben. Der erste Teil dieser Arbeit gibt einen Überblick über die Literatur im Bereich des Katastrophenmanagements und umfasst Simulation, Katastrophenmanagement in Krankenhäusern und die Rolle von Versicherungen im Katastrophenmanagementprozess. Im zweiten Teil wird eine Taxonomie entwickelt, deren Kategorien auf den Modellen und Ergebnissen der Literatur beruhen. Einerseits werden allgemeine Modelleigenschaften wie die Ebene im Katastrophenmanagementprozess, der Modelltyp und die Anwendungsgebiete der Modelle untersucht. Andererseits stellen die Art der Intervention und die Anwendbarkeit für die unterschiedlichen Katastrophenklassen weitere Kategorien der Taxonomie dar. Es wurden 90 Artikel, die beispielhaft für die Forschungsrichtungen im Bereich des Katastrophenmanagements der letzten 25 Jahre stehen, ausgewählt, und entsprechend den jeweiligen Kategorien der Taxonomie zugeordnet. Das Hauptaugenmerk der Taxonomie liegt auf der wirtschaftlichen Analyse, die wirksamkeitsbezogene, ressourcenbezogene und kostenbezogene Parameter umfasst. Es wird gezeigt ob und welche wirtschaftliche Analyse wie beispielsweise die Kosten-Nutzwert- Analyse, die Kosten-Wirksamkeits-Analyse und die Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse angewendet wird um die in den Artikeln beschriebenen Interventionen zu evaluieren. Es wird gezeigt, dass erhebliche Verbesserungen für die verschiedenen Katastrophentypen und in den verschiedenen Situationen erzielt werden können. Eingeschränkte Datenverfügbarkeit schränkt in vielen Fällen die Einsetzbarkeit der Modelle in realen Situationen ein. Im Allgemeinen ist erkennbar, dass Kooperation und Koordination zwischen den beteiligten Einheiten ausschlaggebend für den zeitgerechten und effizienten Einsatz der knappen Ressourcen sind. Oftmals erzielt der gemeinsame Einsatz mehrerer Maßnahme ein deutlich besseres Ergebnis als der Einsatz von lediglich einem einzigen Instrument. Die Taxonomie unterstreicht dass trotz der großen Fülle an Literatur im Bereich des Katastrophenmanagements nur wenige Autoren auf die Kosten-Nutzwert-Analyse, die Kosten-Wirksamkeits-Analyse und die Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse als Hilfsmittel zur wirtschaftlichen Analyse zurückgreifen. In Zukunft, um Interventionen erfolgreich evaluieren zu können oder die beste aus mehreren Interventionen bestimmen zu können wird es immer wichtiger werden, diese Art von wirtschaftlichen Analysen anzuwenden.This thesis intends to demonstrate current research directions in the field of disaster management in the Operational Research literature. Disaster management in this context comprises the management of natural, such as geophysical and hydro-meteorological, and technological disasters, such as industrial accidents, transportation accidents, and miscellaneous accidents, as well as the management of the different terrorism forms, general terrorism and bioterrorism. As the occurrence of disasters is getting more and more frequent and the accumulated loss of these events is getting higher and higher, there is a strong need for the development, implication and economic evaluation of strategies to counter these disasters. In the first part of the thesis, a general overview of the literature is given, including a focus on simulation, disaster management in hospitals, and the role of insurances in the disaster management process. The second part encompasses the taxonomy which focuses on models and outcomes presented in the literature. As a result of the review of the literature, appropriate categories for the disaster management taxonomy are derived. On the one hand, an overview of general model features, i.e., the level of disaster management, model type and methods of application is given. On the other hand, the type of intervention used and the practicability for different disaster types are discussed. 90 papers, illustrative main examples of the research directions of the last 25 years, were selected for deeper investigation and classified according to the main criteria analyzed in the articles. The main focus of the taxonomy lies on the economic analysis, which encompasses effectiveness-related, resource-related, and cost-related parameters and shows the type of economic analysis used in the literature. We analyze whether economic analysis, i.e., costutility, cost-effectiveness, and cost-benefit are used to investigate different interventions and what type of analysis has been chosen by the authors. Policy implications and results show that considerable improvements can be achieved for different disastrous events and in different situations. Limited data availability constrains the outcomes of the models and their applicability to real-world situations. In general, cooperation and coordination of the entities involved are crucial to guarantee timely and efficient assignment of scarce resources. Furthermore, different authors confirm that a combination of various measures often achieves a better outcome than if tools are used autonomously. The taxonomy has underlined that although there exists a vast disaster management literature dealing with various problems related to mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery from disasters, there are only a few authors evaluating the actions taken through economic analyses such cost-utility, cost-effectiveness, or cost-benefit analysis. In the future, to be able to evaluate interventions, or to figure out the most effective intervention among several interventions, it is crucial to stronger rely on the abovementioned economic analyses

Mars Mission and Space Radiation Risks: Space Radiation Research and Technologies for Risk Mitigation

No abstract availabl

Adversarial Risk Análysis for Counterterrorism Modelling

Recent large scale terrorist attacks have raised interest in models for resource allocation against terrorist threats. The unifying theme in this area is the need to develop methods for the analysis of allocation decisions when risks stem from the intentional actions of intelligent adversaries. Most approaches to these problems have a game theoretic flavor although there are also several interesting decision analytic based proposals. One of them is the recently introduced framework for adversarial risk analysis, which deals with decision making problems that involve intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. We explore how adversarial risk analysis addresses some standard counterterrorism models: simultaneous defend-attack models, sequential defend-attack-defend models and sequential defend-attack models with private information. For each model, we first assess critically what would be a typical game theoretic approach and then provide the corresponding solution proposed by the adversarial risk analysis framework, emphasizing how to coherently assess a predictive probability model of the adversary’s actions, in a context in which we aim at supporting decisions of a defender versus an attacker. This illustrates the application of adversarial risk analysis to basic counterterrorism models that may be used as basic building blocks for more complex risk analysis of counterterrorism problems

Urban Terrorism: Strategies for Mitigating Terrorist Attacks Against the Domestic Urban Environment

This study identifies strategies to mitigate the impact of terrorist attacks against the domestic urban environment. It uses multiple qualitative research methods to identify patterns of attack used by terrorists against urban targets in the United States and suggest ways for policymakers to mitigate the effects of a terrorist attack through not only physical, but also organizational, political, legal, and social strategies. It uses case analysis, literature review, and interviews with experts in domestic terrorism preparedness to develop and suggest solutions. Terrorism, as with other criminal acts, can best be met by implementing strategies to mitigate the impact of this form of crime. Governments are simultaneously confronted with a rapidly growing number of potential terrorist targets that must be secured, and constrained by democratic principles from utilizing many technological devices to secure those targets. Creating an effective security system that protects against a wide range of terrorist attacks while it continues to afford a maximum exercise of democratic freedoms and privileges is a formidable task. Several broad, theory-based categories of defending urban spaces are considered. This study builds on past research and extends defensible space theory with careful consideration of the special challenges in dealing with terrorist attacks. The potential for terrorist attack is reviewed, and an understanding of who the domestic urban terrorists are, why they may attack the urban built environment, what might they attack, and what can be done about it is developed. Recommendations for public policy and future research are presented

Recommendations for improving public engagement with pre-incident information materials for initial response to a chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) incident: a systematic review

The risk of chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) incidents has increased in recent years, due to advances in technology, and increased willingness of terrorists to use unconventional weapons. There are basic actions which can reduce or prevent harm during such incidents. The speed with which these actions can be taken may be enhanced by providing pre-incident public information about how to undertake such actions. However, limited research has been carried out to identify potential benefits of providing pre-incident information in relation to preparing for and responding to terrorist attacks, including those involving CBRN agents. This paper presents findings from a systematic literature review which aimed to: examine potential efficacy of pre-incident information campaigns for improving public preparedness for CBRN incidents; identify what information should be included within public preparedness campaigns for CBRN incidents; and identify the best method(s) of providing pre-incident information for CBRN incidents. The review was carried out using Ovid, and selection and screening of papers followed a PRISMA framework. Findings showed that providing a pre-incident educational intervention generally resulted in an improvement in preparedness, compared to not providing any information. However, the majority of studies focused on improving preparedness behaviour in the immediate or short-term (<1 month). It is therefore unclear whether any improvement in preparedness is sustainable over the medium to longer-term. Further research is required to examine to what extent public information campaigns can improve public preparedness over the longer-term, and how best to enhance preparedness for CBRN incidents specifically

THE REVIEW OF DISASTER PREPAREDNESS SCHOOL PROGRAM IN INDONESIA ELEMENTARY AND HIGH SCHOOL

Schools are an essential avenue for youth to learn about disaster resilience A critical success factor for the uptake of disaster resilience learning in schools is the ability to embed learning activities in school programs that are linked to relevant curriculums. The introduction of Disaster Preparedness School (DPS) hoped students were able to identify disaster resilience learning and face the disaster occurring. In 2009, the government started developing a pilot project by combining the curriculum disaster education to the curriculum of Disaster Preparedness School (DPS). The purpose of this study was to analyze the cause of inhibition and make a strategy to solve the problem. This study used a literature review approach and source of data search from the literature that obtains via the internet in the form of results of an online library of local, national, and international, and also from books and related regulations. The results of this study are: a) The cause of inhibitions included four indicators like program target inexact, program of socialization less strength,  program goal less power, monitoring program less document incomplete;  b) The strategy to the development program of DPS would be successful under following conditions: 1) insertion curriculum of disaster mitigation education into several subjects, and into extracurricular activities that exist in schools. 2) conducting DPS Program by proper training that has been done by the ways:  right participant, the subject that relates to a local disaster, functional modules, good time setting, monitoring equipment, done routinely and systematically, and also involving the whole stakeholder

Biothreat and policy pathways: influences upon current bioterrorism policies in the UK

The threat of terrorism, and in particular the threat of terrorists using biological weapons, has grown since the early 1990s, over the decade the assessment and perception of threat escalated despite an absence of biological weapons use. This research explores policy responses to the threat from bioterrorism in the UK between 1990 and 2005. A case study approach is used to examine the emergence and rise of the bioterrorism threat, and the institutional arrangement in place to confront that threat. The dissertation further investigates the construction of the threat narrative. The policy area of bioterrorism is obscured by secrecy. Therefore, this dissertation looks towards policy responses to pandemic influenza, and uses responses to pandemic influenza as a heuristic device to illustrate the difficulties of risk assessment and the accompanying institutional complexity. The study posits that traditional, academic risk assessment methodologies do not appear to have as large an influence as the narratives. Furthermore, the prevailing conceptualisation of the bioterrorism threat is the product of the confluence of three threat narratives. These narratives have become entangled and subsequently embedded in the institutional response. Moreover, a number of events have influenced and shaped the threat narrative of bioterrorism. First, a change in perception (sarin, 1995); then a jolt to the political and institutional structures (September 11, 2001); and finally, further bombings and plots have augmented the threat narrative (Madrid & London). This study is positioned at the intersection of policy studies and risk assessment, contributing to an understanding of the formation of institutional threat perception

Disaster Risk Reduction and Emergency Preparedness for Children with Autism in Facing Earthquake Disaster in YOGYAKARTA

Special Needs Children (ABK) is one of the vulnerable groups in times of disaster. Some of them have mobility hindrance even to perform a defence and personal escape independently, therefore, information is needed on what procedures or plans to take to rescue ABKs who need help from people around them (e.g. teachers, classmates, school staffs). Objectives: To determine the preparedness of children with special needs in dealing with earthquake disasters in Yogyakarta. This research uses a observational descriptive design. The samples are selected using a purposive sampling technique, while the data are collected by means of observation sheets. The respondents for this research are special needs children with autism at ‘SLB N Pembina', Yogyakarta. Data analysis is performed using a descriptive qualitative analysis. Disaster awareness trainings give a positive influence in reducing disaster risks and in increasing the disaster preparedness of special needs children with autism. Special needs children with autism show ability and participation after performing 5 times simulation. The preparedness increase of special needs children after training is 39%