Chance Constrained Mixed Integer Program: Bilinear and Linear Formulations, and Benders Decomposition

In this paper, we study chance constrained mixed integer program with consideration of recourse decisions and their incurred cost, developed on a finite discrete scenario set. Through studying a non-traditional bilinear mixed integer formulation, we derive its linear counterparts and show that they could be stronger than existing linear formulations. We also develop a variant of Jensen's inequality that extends the one for stochastic program. To solve this challenging problem, we present a variant of Benders decomposition method in bilinear form, which actually provides an easy-to-use algorithm framework for further improvements, along with a few enhancement strategies based on structural properties or Jensen's inequality. Computational study shows that the presented Benders decomposition method, jointly with appropriate enhancement techniques, outperforms a commercial solver by an order of magnitude on solving chance constrained program or detecting its infeasibility

Robust Combinatorial Optimization with Locally Budgeted Uncertainty

Budgeted uncertainty sets have been established as a major influence on uncertainty modeling for robust optimization problems. A drawback of such sets is that the budget constraint only restricts the global amount of cost increase that can be distributed by an adversary. Local restrictions, while being important for many applications, cannot be modeled this way. We introduce new variant of budgeted uncertainty sets, called locally budgeted uncertainty. In this setting, the uncertain parameters become partitioned, such that a classic budgeted uncertainty set applies to each partition, called region. In a theoretical analysis, we show that the robust counterpart of such problems for a constant number of regions remains solvable in polynomial time, if the underlying nominal problem can be solved in polynomial time as well. If the number of regions is unbounded, we show that the robust selection problem remains solvable in polynomial time, while also providing hardness results for other combinatorial problems. In computational experiments using both random and real-world data, we show that using locally budgeted uncertainty sets can have considerable advantages over classic budgeted uncertainty sets

Essays on Entertainment Analytics

This thesis explores live entertainment analytics and revenue management allocation strategies for live entertainment. In Chapter two, we look at empirical factors that effect the success of Broadway shows. How well-known actors (stars) effect film revenues has been a recurring question of entertainment producers and academics. Because a film cannot be disentangled from a star involved, researchers have long struggled to rule out ``reverse-causality\u27\u27 - that stars have access to higher quality movies. Using a novel data set that includes Broadway show revenues and actor usage, we provide a fixed-effects regression and case studies. We find across multiple specifications that increases in star power in a show improve revenue. Motivated by social grouping and the associated operational challenges, in Chapter three we formulate and study extensions to the Dynamic Stochastic Knapsack Problem (DSKP). We compartmentalize the knapsack according to predefined reward-to-weight ratios, and incorporate a stochastic interaction between the offered set of open compartments and the item placement. Using a specific interaction function inspired by customer choice in the entertainment industry, we provide an algorithm to determine the optimal solution and obtain insights into structural properties. Given the computational complexity of the dynamic program we also propose and analyze via simulation a heuristic algorithm. In Chapter four, in a large sequence of simulations, we propose and study practical heuristic algorithms on which seats should be offered to requests. We propose an algorithm that offers revenue improvements from a ``naive\u27\u27 policy on the order of 5-10%. Throughout, we aim for managerial relevance, providing implications to current techniques both in strategy as well as operations

Certainty Closure: Reliable Constraint Reasoning with Incomplete or Erroneous Data

Constraint Programming (CP) has proved an effective paradigm to model and solve difficult combinatorial satisfaction and optimisation problems from disparate domains. Many such problems arising from the commercial world are permeated by data uncertainty. Existing CP approaches that accommodate uncertainty are less suited to uncertainty arising due to incomplete and erroneous data, because they do not build reliable models and solutions guaranteed to address the user's genuine problem as she perceives it. Other fields such as reliable computation offer combinations of models and associated methods to handle these types of uncertain data, but lack an expressive framework characterising the resolution methodology independently of the model. We present a unifying framework that extends the CP formalism in both model and solutions, to tackle ill-defined combinatorial problems with incomplete or erroneous data. The certainty closure framework brings together modelling and solving methodologies from different fields into the CP paradigm to provide reliable and efficient approches for uncertain constraint problems. We demonstrate the applicability of the framework on a case study in network diagnosis. We define resolution forms that give generic templates, and their associated operational semantics, to derive practical solution methods for reliable solutions.Comment: Revised versio

Multi-index Stochastic Collocation convergence rates for random PDEs with parametric regularity

We analyze the recent Multi-index Stochastic Collocation (MISC) method for computing statistics of the solution of a partial differential equation (PDEs) with random data, where the random coefficient is parametrized by means of a countable sequence of terms in a suitable expansion. MISC is a combination technique based on mixed differences of spatial approximations and quadratures over the space of random data and, naturally, the error analysis uses the joint regularity of the solution with respect to both the variables in the physical domain and parametric variables. In MISC, the number of problem solutions performed at each discretization level is not determined by balancing the spatial and stochastic components of the error, but rather by suitably extending the knapsack-problem approach employed in the construction of the quasi-optimal sparse-grids and Multi-index Monte Carlo methods. We use a greedy optimization procedure to select the most effective mixed differences to include in the MISC estimator. We apply our theoretical estimates to a linear elliptic PDEs in which the log-diffusion coefficient is modeled as a random field, with a covariance similar to a Mat\'ern model, whose realizations have spatial regularity determined by a scalar parameter. We conduct a complexity analysis based on a summability argument showing algebraic rates of convergence with respect to the overall computational work. The rate of convergence depends on the smoothness parameter, the physical dimensionality and the efficiency of the linear solver. Numerical experiments show the effectiveness of MISC in this infinite-dimensional setting compared with the Multi-index Monte Carlo method and compare the convergence rate against the rates predicted in our theoretical analysis

Estimation and Control of Dynamical Systems with Applications to Multi-Processor Systems

System and control theory is playing an increasingly important role in the design and analysis of computing systems. This thesis investigates a set of estimation and control problems that are driven by new challenges presented by next-generation Multi-Processor Systems on Chips (MPSoCs). Specifically, we consider problems related to state norm estimation, state estimation for positive systems, sensor selection, and nonlinear output tracking. Although these problems are motivated by applications to multi-processor systems, the corresponding theory and algorithms are developed for general dynamical systems. We first study state norm estimation for linear systems with unknown inputs. Specifically, we consider a formulation where the unknown inputs and initial condition of the system are bounded in magnitude, and the objective is to construct an unknown input norm-observer which estimates an upper bound for the norm of the states. This class of problems is motivated by the need to estimate the maximum temperature across a multi-core processor, based on a given model of the thermal dynamics. In order to characterize the existence of the norm observer, we propose a notion of bounded-input-bounded-output-bounded-state (BIBOBS) stability; this concept supplements various system properties, including bounded-input-bounded-output (BIBO) stability, bounded-input-bounded-state (BIBS) stability, and input-output-to-state stability (IOSS).We provide necessary and sufficient conditions on the system matrices under which a linear system is BIBOBS stable, and show that the set of modes of the system with magnitude 1 plays a key role. A construction for the unknown input norm-observer follows as a byproduct. Then we investigate the state estimation problem for positive linear systems with unknown inputs. This problem is also motivated by the need to monitor the temperature of a multi-processor system and the property of positivity arises due to the physical nature of the thermal model. We extend the concept of strong observability to positive systems and as a negative result, we show that the additional information on positivity does not help in state estimation. Since the states of the system are always positive, negative state estimates are meaningless and the positivity of the observers themselves may be desirable in certain applications. Moreover, positive systems possess certain desired robustness properties. Thus, for positive systems where state estimation with unknown inputs is possible, we provide a linear programming based design procedure for delayed positive observers. Next we consider the problem of selecting an optimal set of sensors to estimate the states of linear dynamical systems; in the context of multi-core processors, this problem arises due to the need to place thermal sensors in order to perform state estimation. The goal is to choose (at design-time) a subset of sensors (satisfying certain budget constraints) from a given set in order to minimize the trace of the steady state a priori or a posteriori error covariance produced by a Kalman filter. We show that the a priori and a posteriori error covariance-based sensor selection problems are both NP-hard, even under the additional assumption that the system is stable. We then provide bounds on the worst-case performance of sensor selection algorithms based on the system dynamics, and show that certain greedy algorithms are optimal for two classes of systems. However, as a negative result, we show that certain typical objective functions are not submodular or supermodular in general. While this makes it difficult to evaluate the performance of greedy algorithms for sensor selection (outside of certain special cases), we show via simulations that these greedy algorithms perform well in practice. Finally, we study the output tracking problem for nonlinear systems with constraints. This class of problems arises due to the need to optimize the energy consumption of the CPU-GPU subsystem in multi-processor systems while satisfying certain Quality of Service (QoS) requirements. In order for the system output to track a class of bounded reference signals with limited online computational resources, we propose a sampling-based explicit nonlinear model predictive control (ENMPC) approach, where only a bound on the admissible references is known to the designer a priori. The basic idea of sampling-based ENMPC is to sample the state and reference signal space using deterministic sampling and construct the ENMPC by using regression methods. The proposed approach guarantees feasibility and stability for all admissible references and ensures asymptotic convergence to the set-point. Furthermore, robustness through the use of an ancillary controller is added to the nominal ENMPC for a class of nonlinear systems with additive disturbances, where the robust controller keeps the system output close to the desired nominal trajectory

A branch-and-bound algorithm for stable scheduling in single-machine production systems.

Robust scheduling aims at the construction of a schedule that is protected against uncertain events. A stable schedule is a robust schedule that will change little when variations in the input parameters arise. This paper proposes a branch-and-bound algorithm for optimally solving a single-machine scheduling problem with stability objective, when a single job is anticipated to be disrupted.Branch-and-bound; Construction; Event; Job; Robust scheduling; Robustness; Scheduling; Single-machine scheduling; Stability; Systems; Uncertainty;