Uncertainty quantification for kinetic models in socio-economic and life sciences

Kinetic equations play a major rule in modeling large systems of interacting particles. Recently the legacy of classical kinetic theory found novel applications in socio-economic and life sciences, where processes characterized by large groups of agents exhibit spontaneous emergence of social structures. Well-known examples are the formation of clusters in opinion dynamics, the appearance of inequalities in wealth distributions, flocking and milling behaviors in swarming models, synchronization phenomena in biological systems and lane formation in pedestrian traffic. The construction of kinetic models describing the above processes, however, has to face the difficulty of the lack of fundamental principles since physical forces are replaced by empirical social forces. These empirical forces are typically constructed with the aim to reproduce qualitatively the observed system behaviors, like the emergence of social structures, and are at best known in terms of statistical information of the modeling parameters. For this reason the presence of random inputs characterizing the parameters uncertainty should be considered as an essential feature in the modeling process. In this survey we introduce several examples of such kinetic models, that are mathematically described by nonlinear Vlasov and Fokker--Planck equations, and present different numerical approaches for uncertainty quantification which preserve the main features of the kinetic solution.Comment: To appear in "Uncertainty Quantification for Hyperbolic and Kinetic Equations

Asymptotic Estimates in Information Theory with Non-Vanishing Error Probabilities

This monograph presents a unified treatment of single- and multi-user problems in Shannon's information theory where we depart from the requirement that the error probability decays asymptotically in the blocklength. Instead, the error probabilities for various problems are bounded above by a non-vanishing constant and the spotlight is shone on achievable coding rates as functions of the growing blocklengths. This represents the study of asymptotic estimates with non-vanishing error probabilities. In Part I, after reviewing the fundamentals of information theory, we discuss Strassen's seminal result for binary hypothesis testing where the type-I error probability is non-vanishing and the rate of decay of the type-II error probability with growing number of independent observations is characterized. In Part II, we use this basic hypothesis testing result to develop second- and sometimes, even third-order asymptotic expansions for point-to-point communication. Finally in Part III, we consider network information theory problems for which the second-order asymptotics are known. These problems include some classes of channels with random state, the multiple-encoder distributed lossless source coding (Slepian-Wolf) problem and special cases of the Gaussian interference and multiple-access channels. Finally, we discuss avenues for further research.Comment: Further comments welcom

The large deviation approach to statistical mechanics

The theory of large deviations is concerned with the exponential decay of probabilities of large fluctuations in random systems. These probabilities are important in many fields of study, including statistics, finance, and engineering, as they often yield valuable information about the large fluctuations of a random system around its most probable state or trajectory. In the context of equilibrium statistical mechanics, the theory of large deviations provides exponential-order estimates of probabilities that refine and generalize Einstein's theory of fluctuations. This review explores this and other connections between large deviation theory and statistical mechanics, in an effort to show that the mathematical language of statistical mechanics is the language of large deviation theory. The first part of the review presents the basics of large deviation theory, and works out many of its classical applications related to sums of random variables and Markov processes. The second part goes through many problems and results of statistical mechanics, and shows how these can be formulated and derived within the context of large deviation theory. The problems and results treated cover a wide range of physical systems, including equilibrium many-particle systems, noise-perturbed dynamics, nonequilibrium systems, as well as multifractals, disordered systems, and chaotic systems. This review also covers many fundamental aspects of statistical mechanics, such as the derivation of variational principles characterizing equilibrium and nonequilibrium states, the breaking of the Legendre transform for nonconcave entropies, and the characterization of nonequilibrium fluctuations through fluctuation relations.Comment: v1: 89 pages, 18 figures, pdflatex. v2: 95 pages, 20 figures, text, figures and appendices added, many references cut, close to published versio

Patterns of Scalable Bayesian Inference

Datasets are growing not just in size but in complexity, creating a demand for rich models and quantification of uncertainty. Bayesian methods are an excellent fit for this demand, but scaling Bayesian inference is a challenge. In response to this challenge, there has been considerable recent work based on varying assumptions about model structure, underlying computational resources, and the importance of asymptotic correctness. As a result, there is a zoo of ideas with few clear overarching principles. In this paper, we seek to identify unifying principles, patterns, and intuitions for scaling Bayesian inference. We review existing work on utilizing modern computing resources with both MCMC and variational approximation techniques. From this taxonomy of ideas, we characterize the general principles that have proven successful for designing scalable inference procedures and comment on the path forward

Large-deviation principles for connectable receivers in wireless networks

We study large-deviation principles for a model of wireless networks consisting of Poisson point processes of transmitters and receivers, respectively. To each transmitter we associate a family of connectable receivers whose signal-to-interference-and-noise ratio is larger than a certain connectivity threshold. First, we show a large-deviation principle for the empirical measure of connectable receivers associated with transmitters in large boxes. Second, making use of the observation that the receivers connectable to the origin form a Cox point process, we derive a large-deviation principle for the rescaled process of these receivers as the connection threshold tends to zero. Finally, we show how these results can be used to develop importance-sampling algorithms that substantially reduce the variance for the estimation of probabilities of certain rare events such as users being unable to connectComment: 29 pages, 2 figure