Információtechnológiai befektetési döntések: a reálopciós megközelítés helye az értékelésben

Munkámban az információtechnológiai befektetések értékelésének új, opciós megközelítésének elméleti és gyakorlati relevanciáját vizsgálom. Elméleti szempontból az opciós értékelési formulák feltételezései a komplex IT projektek esetében csak részben teljesülnek, és paramétereikre is csak speciális esetekben létezik megbízható becslés. Gyakorlati szempontból viszont a hagyományos diszkontált pénzáramlás alapú módszerek opciós kiterjesztése indokolt a jövőbeli döntési lehetőségek hozzáadott értékének figyelembevételére. Vállalati menedzsment nézőpontból azonban egyelőre csupán a kvalitatív stratégiai eszköztár kiszélesítésében kap helyet az opciós szemlélet. Ezen megállapítások alapján a következő problémák állnak jelen- és jövőbeli munkám fókuszában: (1) a komplex IT projektek jellegzetességeihez illeszkedő opcióértékelési formula (2) és ennek paramétereire a gyakorlatban könnyen alkalmazható becslési módszer keresése, (3) majd ezek összegyúrása a kvalitatív opciós megfontolásokkal. Munkám végén – az IT és a pénzügyi irodalom szintéziseként – megfogalmazott javaslataim lehetővé teszik, hogy a reál opciós értékelés egyrészt feltételezéseiben alkalmazkodjon az IT beruházások jellegzetességeihez (amerikai típusú lehívás diszkrét felülvizsgálatai pontokon, idővel változó beruházási költségek, speciális és többlépcsős begyazott opciók) és emellett megtartsa gyakorlati relevanciáját, viszonylag átlátható és jól kommunikálható számítási módszerek segítségével

Investment Evaluation Of RFID Technology Applications: A Real Options Perspective

The majority of previous studies on investment evaluation of RFID technology ignore the flexibility and the Real Options that this kind of investment can lead to. However, studies on the evaluation of other Information Systems have acknowledged the importance of these options as they create future business opportunities or give to managers the opportunity to take actions that could favorably influence the future direction of an investment in response to external or internal events. Drawing on literature from the Financial Field (Real Options theory) and Information Systems (IT investment evaluation), this paper has the aim to apply the Real Options approach to the RFID context through a case study example. This study shows how and why this approach is applicable to the case of RFID technology, underlining its necessity for the RFID investment evaluation

Towards a Well-Founded Valuation of Managerial Fleibilities in IT Investment Projects - A Multidisciplinary Literature Review

In the IS literature standard financial option pricing models are predominantly used to value real options embedded in uncertain IT projects. Based on a multidisciplinary literature review, we discuss the assumptions implicit in the prevalent Black-Scholes model and argue for relaxed assumptions that better represent characteristics of uncertain IT projects. This is followed by a discussion of real option approaches from the fields of IS, Finance, and Economics in respect of their compliance with these relaxed assumptions. Findings are: (I) by relaxing the assumptions, the option value and project selection decisions are liable to change; (II) several approaches from Finance and Economics literature better comply with our relaxed assumptions compared to existing approaches in IS literature; (III) no existing real option approach complies with all relaxed assumptions. Adapting and enhancing approaches of other disciplines could be a push towards a well-founded valuation of real options embedded in IT projects

Black Scholes Model

Black-Scholes is a pricing model applied as the reference in the derivation of fair price—or the theoretical value for a call or a put option. A call is defined as the decision to buy actual stock at a set price, defined as the strike price; and by a scheduled expiration date. A put option is defined as the opportunity contract providing the owner the right but not the obligation, to sell an exact amount of underlying security at a stated price within a specific time frame. The call or put option in the Black Scholes model is based on six variables: strike price and underlying stock price, time and type of option, volatility and risk-free rate. The application of the model assumes that these stock or securities recognise its corresponding custom derivatives held to expiration. It is sufficient to state that the Black-Scholes treats a call option as an informal agreement defined as a forward contract with expectation to deliver stock at a contractual price, otherwise indicative in the strike price. Typically the Black-Scholes model is utilised to price European options (y p) that represents investment options in a selection of financial assets earning risk-free interest rates. In strictness, the model presents the option price as a function of stock price volatility: High volatility is tantamount a high premium price on the option

Interactions in IS Project Portfolio Selection - Status Quo and Perspectives

One central and important requirement for IS project portfolio selection is the adequate consideration of project interactions. However, the IS discipline notably lacks a common understanding of the nature of project interactions and their impact on IS project portfolio selection. To remedy this we conduct a systematic and interdisciplinary literature review thereby providing a starting point for a cumulative research tradition. The main contribution of this paper is the development of a taxonomy to summarize the current state-of-the-art. Thereby, we provide a basis enabling researchers to develop integrated approaches. Based on the identified research gaps we formulate a research agenda for the field of IS project portfolio selection considering interactions

A FRAMEWORK TO SUPPORT SERVICE-ORIENTED ARCHITECTURE INVESTMENT DECISION

Service-oriented architecture (SOA) is a system paradigm that structures business functions as loosely coupled services to enable business agility. SOA requires significant up-front investments, and in return, promises a vast array of benefits. Unfortunately, in contrast to the costs of the investment, monetary benefits associated with SOA are more difficult to measure. For one reason, benefits such as increased agility or improved flexibility are elusive in nature, making it harder to define metrics for their calculation. For another, SOA value is realized in long term under uncertainty, and traditional capital budgeting methods often fail to capture uncertainty when valuing investments. In this paper, we provide a decision framework to analyze the monetary impact of SOA investment in an organization. Combining traditional NPV analysis with option pricing models, our framework accounts for operational and strategic costs and benefits of SOA and proposes an extended investment value to support managerial investment decision

Examining Real Options Exercise Decisions in Information Technology Investments

Researchers have advocated real options thinking (ROT) for evaluating and managing risky IT investments to account for managerial decision flexibility. Effective ROT is a three-step process that requires managers to recognize, value, and exercise options embedded in IT projects. Prior research has illustrated the existence of managerial bias in the recognizing and valuing real options. However, little research has examined real options exercise decisions. Hence, we use prospect theory to examine whether IT managers demonstrate systematic biases while exercising real options in IT projects and portfolios. We also study whether one can control or mitigate such biases. We found evidence of biased (suboptimal) real option exercise decisions in IT projects and in IT portfolios. However, we found differences in biased decision making between a single project and a portfolio scenario. We also found that project scale and real option type influenced vulnerability of a project to biased decision making. In addition, simplifying the presentation of the net effects of real options exercise decisions can help reduce bias, especially for large project portfolios. We discuss the implications of these results on theory and practice

Managerial risk in information technology investments : effects of framing, narrow framing and time inconsistent preferences on real options exercise decisions

Real options theory has been advocated as a solution to risky IT investment decisions. IT investments decisions are risky due to uncertainty around future outcomes and the inability of traditional financial measures (like NPV, IRR) to account for inherent managerial flexibility. On the one hand, it is argued that real options analysis captures and formalizes managers' intuition, hence creating a disciplined decision making process. On the other hand, the intuitive valuation of the options is criticized due to the prevalent effects of various judgmental biases. In this dissertation, we explore three potential biases that can affect the real option exercise decisions in terms of either suboptimal option exercise choice due to framing and narrow framing effects, or suboptimal exercise time due to time inconsistent preferences of IT managers. We test for framing effects in individual IT project decisions and narrow framing effects in IT portfolio decisions, by conducting an online experiment among top and mid-level IT professionals. The results show that IT professionals are prone to framing real options at exercise time and simplifying complicated real option exercise decisions by isolating them in IT portfolios. Further, their decisions are influenced by their personal risk preferences. We analyze the effect of time-inconsistent preferences of present-biased managers on the exercise time of real growth and abandonment options and the realized values using a discrete time option valuation model. The results show that present-biased managers are more likely to exercise growth options early when the net payoffs are low, the growth option payoffs have high volatility, and the risk free discount rate is small. Also, present-biased managers are more likely to exercise abandonment option late when the net payoffs from continuing the project are high, salvage value of the project is low, and the rate of change in the salvage value over the period of time is low. In addition, present biased managers are more likely to exercise a growth option early in its life when the project is performing well. We provide implications for practice and IT governance