An Analysis and Reasoning Framework for Project Data Software Repositories

As the requirements for software systems increase, their size, complexity and functionality consequently increases as well. This has a direct impact on the complexity of numerous artifacts related to the system such as specification, design, implementation and, testing models. Furthermore, as the software market becomes more and more competitive, the need for software products that are of high quality and require the least monetary, time and human resources for their development and maintenance becomes evident. Therefore, it is important that project managers and software engineers are given the necessary tools to obtain a more holistic and accurate perspective of the status of their projects in order to early identify potential risks, flaws, and quality issues that may arise during each stage of the software project life cycle. In this respect, practitioners and academics alike have recognized the significance of investigating new methods for supporting software management operations with respect to large software projects. The main target of this M.A.Sc. thesis is the design of a framework in terms of, first, a reference architecture for mining and analyzing of software project data repositories according to specific objectives and analytic knowledge, second, the techniques to model such analytic knowledge and, third, a reasoning methodology for verifying or denying hypotheses related to analysis objectives. Such a framework could assist project managers, team leaders and development teams towards more accurate prediction of project traits such as quality analysis, risk assessment, cost estimation and progress evaluation. More specifically, the framework utilizes goal models to specify analysis objectives as well as, possible ways by which these objectives can be achieved. Examples of such analysis objectives for a project could be to yield, high code quality, achieve low production cost or, cope with tight delivery deadlines. Such goal models are consequently transformed into collections of Markov Logic Network rules which are then applied to the repository data in order to verify or deny with a degree of probability, whether the particular project objectives can be met as the project evolves. The proposed framework has been applied, as a proof of concept, on a repository pertaining to three industrial projects with more that one hundred development tasks

Graphical models beyond standard settings: lifted decimation, labeling, and counting

With increasing complexity and growing problem sizes in AI and Machine Learning, inference and learning are still major issues in Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs). On the other hand, many problems are specified in such a way that symmetries arise from the underlying model structure. Exploiting these symmetries during inference, which is referred to as "lifted inference", has lead to significant efficiency gains. This thesis provides several enhanced versions of known algorithms that show to be liftable too and thereby applies lifting in "non-standard" settings. By doing so, the understanding of the applicability of lifted inference and lifting in general is extended. Among various other experiments, it is shown how lifted inference in combination with an innovative Web-based data harvesting pipeline is used to label author-paper-pairs with geographic information in online bibliographies. This results is a large-scale transnational bibliography containing affiliation information over time for roughly one million authors. Analyzing this dataset reveals the importance of understanding count data. Although counting is done literally everywhere, mainstream PGMs have widely been neglecting count data. In the case where the ranges of the random variables are defined over the natural numbers, crude approximations to the true distribution are often made by discretization or a Gaussian assumption. To handle count data, Poisson Dependency Networks (PDNs) are introduced which presents a new class of non-standard PGMs naturally handling count data

On Leveraging Statistical and Relational Information for the Representation and Recognition of Complex Human Activities

Machine activity recognition aims to automatically predict human activities from a series of sensor signals. It is a key aspect to several emerging applications, especially in the pervasive computing field. However, this problem faces several challenges due to the complex, relational and ambiguous nature of human activities. These challenges still defy the majority of traditional pattern recognition approaches, whether they are knowledge-based or data-driven. Concretely, the current approaches to activity recognition in sensor environments fall short to represent, reason or learn under uncertainty, complex relational structure, rich temporal context and abundant common-sense knowledge. Motivated by these shortcomings, our work focuses on the combination of both data-driven and knowledge-based paradigms in order to address this problem. In particular, we propose two logic-based statistical relational activity recognition frameworks which we describe in two different parts. The first part presents a Markov logic-based framework addressing the recognition of complex human activities under realistic settings. Markov logic is a highly flexible statistical relational formalism combining the power of first-order logic with Markov networks by attaching real-valued weights to formulas in first-order logic. Thus, it unites both symbolic and probabilistic reasoning and allows to model the complex relational structure as well as the inherent uncertainty underlying human activities and sensor data. We focus on addressing the challenge of recognizing interleaved and concurrent activities while preserving the intuitiveness and flexibility of the modelling task. Using three different models we evaluate and prove the viability of using Markov logic networks for that problem statement. We also demonstrate the crucial impact of domain knowledge on the recognition outcome. Implementing an exhaustive model including heterogeneous information sources comes, however, at considerable knowledge engineering efforts. Hence, employing a standard, widely used formalism can alleviate that by enhancing the portability, the re-usability and the extension of the model. In the second part of this document, we apply a hybrid approach that goes one step further than Markov logic network towards a formal, yet intuitive conceptualization of the domain of discourse. Concretely, we propose an activity recognition framework based on log-linear description logic, a probabilistic variant of description logics. Log-linear description logic leverages the principles of Markov logic while allowing for a formal conceptualization of the domain of discourse, backed up with powerful reasoning and consistency check tools. Based on principles from the activity theory, we focus on addressing the challenge of representing and recognizing human activities at three levels of granularity: operations, actions and activities. Complying with real-life scenarios, we assess and discuss the viability of the proposed framework. In particular, we show the positive impact of augmenting the proposed multi-level activity ontology with weights compared to using its conventional weight-free variant

Using Constraint Satisfaction Techniques and Variational Methods for Probabilistic Reasoning

RÉSUMÉ Cette thèse présente un certain nombre de contributions à la recherche pour la création de systèmes efficaces de raisonnement probabiliste sur les modèles graphiques de problèmes issus d'une variété d'applications scientifiques et d'ingénierie. Ce thème touche plusieurs sous-disciplines de l'intelligence artificielle. Généralement, la plupart de ces problèmes ont des modèles graphiques expressifs qui se traduisent par de grands réseaux impliquant déterminisme et des cycles, ce qui représente souvent un goulot d'étranglement pour tout système d'inférence probabiliste et affaiblit son exactitude ainsi que son évolutivité. Conceptuellement, notre recherche confirme les hypothèses suivantes. D'abord, les techniques de satisfaction de contraintes et méthodes variationnelles peuvent être exploitées pour obtenir des algorithmes précis et évolutifs pour l'inférence probabiliste en présence de cycles et de déterminisme. Deuxièmement, certaines parties intrinsèques de la structure du modèle graphique peuvent se révéler bénéfiques pour l'inférence probabiliste sur les grands modèles graphiques, au lieu de poser un défi important pour elle. Troisièmement, le re-paramétrage du modèle graphique permet d'ajouter à sa structure des caractéristiques puissantes qu'on peut utiliser pour améliorer l'inférence probabiliste. La première contribution majeure de cette thèse est la formulation d'une nouvelle approche de passage de messages (message-passing) pour inférer dans un graphe de facteurs étendu qui combine des techniques de satisfaction de contraintes et des méthodes variationnelles. Contrairement au message-passing standard, il formule sa structure sous forme d'étapes de maximisation de l'espérance variationnelle. Ainsi, on a de nouvelles règles de mise à jour des marginaux qui augmentent une borne inférieure à chaque mise à jour de manière à éviter le dépassement d'un point fixe. De plus, lors de l'étape d'espérance, nous mettons à profit les structures locales dans le graphe de facteurs en utilisant la cohérence d'arc généralisée pour effectuer une approximation de champ moyen variationnel. La deuxième contribution majeure est la formulation d'une stratégie en deux étapes qui utilise le déterminisme présent dans la structure du modèle graphique pour améliorer l'évolutivité du problème d'inférence probabiliste. Dans cette stratégie, nous prenons en compte le fait que si le modèle sous-jacent implique des contraintes inviolables en plus des préférences, alors c'est potentiellement un gaspillage d'allouer de la mémoire pour toutes les contraintes à l'avance lors de l'exécution de l'inférence. Pour éviter cela, nous commençons par la relaxation des préférences et effectuons l'inférence uniquement avec les contraintes inviolables. Cela permet d'éviter les calculs inutiles impliquant les préférences et de réduire la taille effective du réseau graphique. Enfin, nous développons une nouvelle famille d'algorithmes d'inférence par le passage de messages dans un graphe de facteurs étendus, paramétrées par un facteur de lissage (smoothing parameter). Cette famille permet d'identifier les épines dorsales (backbones) d'une grappe qui contient des solutions potentiellement optimales. Ces épines dorsales ne sont pas seulement des parties des solutions optimales, mais elles peuvent également être exploitées pour intensifier l'inférence MAP en les fixant de manière itérative afin de réduire les parties complexes jusqu'à ce que le réseau se réduise à un seul qui peut être résolu avec précision en utilisant une méthode MAP d'inférence classique. Nous décrivons ensuite des variantes paresseuses de cette famille d'algorithmes. Expérimentalement, une évaluation empirique approfondie utilisant des applications du monde réel démontre la précision, la convergence et l'évolutivité de l'ensemble de nos algorithmes et stratégies par rapport aux algorithmes d'inférence existants de l'état de l'art.----------ABSTRACT This thesis presents a number of research contributions pertaining to the theme of creating efficient probabilistic reasoning systems based on graphical models of real-world problems from relational domains. These models arise in a variety of scientific and engineering applications. Thus, the theme impacts several sub-disciplines of Artificial Intelligence. Commonly, most of these problems have expressive graphical models that translate into large probabilistic networks involving determinism and cycles. Such graphical models frequently represent a bottleneck for any probabilistic inference system and weaken its accuracy and scalability. Conceptually, our research here hypothesizes and confirms that: First, constraint satisfaction techniques and variational methods can be exploited to yield accurate and scalable algorithms for probabilistic inference in the presence of cycles and determinism. Second, some intrinsic parts of the structure of the graphical model can turn out to be beneficial to probabilistic inference on large networks, instead of posing a significant challenge to it. Third, the proper re-parameterization of the graphical model can provide its structure with characteristics that we can use to improve probabilistic inference. The first major contribution of this thesis is the formulation of a novel message-passing approach to inference in an extended factor graph that combines constraint satisfaction techniques with variational methods. In contrast to standard message-passing, it formulates the Message-Passing structure as steps of variational expectation maximization. Thus it has new marginal update rules that increase a lower bound at each marginal update in a way that avoids overshooting a fixed point. Moreover, in its expectation step, we leverage the local structures in the factor graph by using generalized arc consistency to perform a variational mean-field approximation. The second major contribution is the formulation of a novel two-stage strategy that uses the determinism present in the graphical model's structure to improve the scalability of probabilistic inference. In this strategy, we take into account the fact that if the underlying model involves mandatory constraints as well as preferences then it is potentially wasteful to allocate memory for all constraints in advance when performing inference. To avoid this, we start by relaxing preferences and performing inference with hard constraints only. This helps avoid irrelevant computations involving preferences, and reduces the effective size of the graphical network. Finally, we develop a novel family of message-passing algorithms for inference in an extended factor graph, parameterized by a smoothing parameter. This family allows one to find the ”backbones” of a cluster that involves potentially optimal solutions. The cluster's backbones are not only portions of the optimal solutions, but they also can be exploited for scaling MAP inference by iteratively fixing them to reduce the complex parts until the network is simplified into one that can be solved accurately using any conventional MAP inference method. We then describe lazy variants of this family of algorithms. One limiting case of our approach corresponds to lazy survey propagation, which in itself is novel method which can yield state of the art performance. We provide a thorough empirical evaluation using real-world applications. Our experiments demonstrate improvements to the accuracy, convergence and scalability of all our proposed algorithms and strategies over existing state-of-the-art inference algorithms

Recognizing complex faces and gaits via novel probabilistic models

In the field of computer vision, developing automated systems to recognize people under unconstrained scenarios is a partially solved problem. In unconstrained sce- narios a number of common variations and complexities such as occlusion, illumi- nation, cluttered background and so on impose vast uncertainty to the recognition process. Among the various biometrics that have been emerging recently, this dissertation focus on two of them namely face and gait recognition. Firstly we address the problem of recognizing faces with major occlusions amidst other variations such as pose, scale, expression and illumination using a novel PRObabilistic Component based Interpretation Model (PROCIM) inspired by key psychophysical principles that are closely related to reasoning under uncertainty. The model basically employs Bayesian Networks to establish, learn, interpret and exploit intrinsic similarity mappings from the face domain. Then, by incorporating e cient inference strategies, robust decisions are made for successfully recognizing faces under uncertainty. PROCIM reports improved recognition rates over recent approaches. Secondly we address the newly upcoming gait recognition problem and show that PROCIM can be easily adapted to the gait domain as well. We scienti cally de ne and formulate sub-gaits and propose a novel modular training scheme to e ciently learn subtle sub-gait characteristics from the gait domain. Our results show that the proposed model is robust to several uncertainties and yields sig- ni cant recognition performance. Apart from PROCIM, nally we show how a simple component based gait reasoning can be coherently modeled using the re- cently prominent Markov Logic Networks (MLNs) by intuitively fusing imaging, logic and graphs. We have discovered that face and gait domains exhibit interesting similarity map- pings between object entities and their components. We have proposed intuitive probabilistic methods to model these mappings to perform recognition under vari- ous uncertainty elements. Extensive experimental validations justi es the robust- ness of the proposed methods over the state-of-the-art techniques.

Lifted Bayesian filtering in multi-entity systems

This thesis focuses on Bayesian filtering for systems that consist of multiple, interacting entites (e.g. agents or objects), which can naturally be described by Multiset Rewriting Systems (MRSs). The main insight is that the state space that is underling an MRS exhibits a certain symmetry, which can be exploited to increase inference efficiency. We provide an efficient, lifted filtering algorithm, which is able to achieve a factorial reduction in space and time complexity, compared to conventional, ground filtering.Diese Arbeit betrachtet Bayes'sche Filter in Systemen, die aus mehreren, interagierenden Entitäten (z.B. Agenten oder Objekten) bestehen. Die Systemdynamik solcher Systeme kann auf natürliche Art durch Multiset Rewriting Systems (MRS) spezifiziert werden. Die wesentliche Erkenntnis ist, dass der Zustandraum Symmetrien aufweist, die ausgenutzt werden können, um die Effizienz der Inferenz zu erhöhen. Wir führen einen effizienten, gelifteten Filter-Algorithmus ein, dessen Zeit- und Platzkomplexität gegenüber dem grundierten Algorithmus um einen faktoriellen Faktor reduziert ist

Unrestricted Bridging Resolution

Anaphora plays a major role in discourse comprehension and accounts for the coherence of a text. In contrast to identity anaphora which indicates that a noun phrase refers back to the same entity introduced by previous descriptions in the discourse, bridging anaphora or associative anaphora links anaphors and antecedents via lexico-semantic, frame or encyclopedic relations. In recent years, various computational approaches have been developed for bridging resolution. However, most of them only consider antecedent selection, assuming that bridging anaphora recognition has been performed. Moreover, they often focus on subproblems, e.g., only part-of bridging or definite noun phrase anaphora. This thesis addresses the problem of unrestricted bridging resolution, i.e., recognizing bridging anaphora and finding links to antecedents where bridging anaphors are not limited to definite noun phrases and semantic relations between anaphors and their antecedents are not restricted to meronymic relations. In this thesis, we solve the problem using a two-stage statistical model. Given all mentions in a document, the first stage predicts bridging anaphors by exploring a cascading collective classification model. We cast bridging anaphora recognition as a subtask of learning fine-grained information status (IS). Each mention in a text gets assigned one IS class, bridging being one possible class. The model combines the binary classifiers for minority categories and a collective classifier for all categories in a cascaded way. It addresses the multi-class imbalance problem (e.g., the wide variation of bridging anaphora and their relative rarity compared to many other IS classes) within a multi-class setting while still keeping the strength of the collective classifier by investigating relational autocorrelation among several IS classes. The second stage finds the antecedents for all predicted bridging anaphors at the same time by exploring a joint inference model. The approach models two mutually supportive tasks (i.e., bridging anaphora resolution and sibling anaphors clustering) jointly, on the basis of the observation that semantically/syntactically related anaphors are likely to be sibling anaphors, and hence share the same antecedent. Both components are based on rich linguistically-motivated features and discriminatively trained on a corpus (ISNotes) where bridging is reliably annotated. Our approaches achieve substantial improvements over the reimplementations of previous systems for all three tasks, i.e., bridging anaphora recognition, bridging anaphora resolution and full bridging resolution. The work is – to our knowledge – the first bridging resolution system that handles the unrestricted phenomenon in a realistic setting. The methods in this dissertation were originally presented in Markert et al. (2012) and Hou et al. (2013a; 2013b; 2014). The thesis gives a detailed exposition, carrying out a thorough corpus analysis of bridging and conducting a detailed comparison of our models to others in the literature, and also presents several extensions of the aforementioned papers

On the use of walkSAT based algorithms for MLN inference in some realistic applications

International audienceWalkSAT is a local search algorithm conceived for solving SAT problems, which is also used for sampling possible worlds from a logical formula. This algorithm is used by Markov Logic Networks to perform slice sampling and give probabilities from a knowledge base defined with soft and hard constraints. In this paper, we will show that local search strategies, such as WalkSAT, may perform as poorly as a pure random walk on a category of problems that are quite common in industrial fields. We will also give some insights into the reasons that make random search algorithms intractable for these problems