On the Unpredictability of Individual Quantum Measurement Outcomes

Abstract. We develop a general, non-probabilistic model of prediction which is suitable for assessing the (un)predictability of individual physical events. We use this model to provide, for the first time, a rigorous proof of the unpredictability of a class of individual quantum measurement outcomes, a well-known quantum attribute postulated or claimed for a long time. We prove that quantum indeterminism-formally modelled as value indefiniteness-is incompatible with the supposition of predictability: measurements of value indefinite observables are unpredictable. The proof makes essential use of a strengthened form of the Kochen-Specker theorem proven previously to identify value indefinite observables. This form of quantum unpredictability, like the Kochen-Specker theorem, relies on three assumptions: compatibility with quantum mechanical predictions, non-contextuality, and the value definiteness of observables corresponding to the preparation basis of a quantum state. We explore the relation between unpredictability and incomputability and show that the unpredictability of individual measurements of a value indefinite quantum observable complements, and is independent of, the global strong incomputability of any sequence of outcomes of this particular quantum experiment. Finally, we discuss a real model of hypercomputation whose computational power has yet to be determined, as well as further open problems

A Non-Probabilistic Model of Relativised Predictability in Physics

Little effort has been devoted to studying generalised notions or models of (un)predictability, yet is an important concept throughout physics and plays a central role in quantum information theory, where key results rely on the supposed inherent unpredictability of measurement outcomes. In this paper we continue the programme started in [1] developing a general, non-probabilistic model of (un)predictability in physics. We present a more refined model that is capable of studying different degrees of "relativised" unpredictability. This model is based on the ability for an agent, acting via uniform, effective means, to predict correctly and reproducibly the outcome of an experiment using finite information extracted from the environment. We use this model to study further the degree of unpredictability certified by different quantum phenomena, showing that quantum complementarity guarantees a form of relativised unpredictability that is weaker than that guaranteed by Kochen-Specker-type value indefiniteness. We exemplify further the difference between certification by complementarity and value indefiniteness by showing that, unlike value indefiniteness, complementarity is compatible with the production of computable sequences of bits.Comment: 10 page

A Quantum-Bayesian Route to Quantum-State Space

In the quantum-Bayesian approach to quantum foundations, a quantum state is viewed as an expression of an agent's personalist Bayesian degrees of belief, or probabilities, concerning the results of measurements. These probabilities obey the usual probability rules as required by Dutch-book coherence, but quantum mechanics imposes additional constraints upon them. In this paper, we explore the question of deriving the structure of quantum-state space from a set of assumptions in the spirit of quantum Bayesianism. The starting point is the representation of quantum states induced by a symmetric informationally complete measurement or SIC. In this representation, the Born rule takes the form of a particularly simple modification of the law of total probability. We show how to derive key features of quantum-state space from (i) the requirement that the Born rule arises as a simple modification of the law of total probability and (ii) a limited number of additional assumptions of a strong Bayesian flavor.Comment: 7 pages, 1 figure, to appear in Foundations of Physics; this is a condensation of the argument in arXiv:0906.2187v1 [quant-ph], with special attention paid to making all assumptions explici

Neural Unpredictability, the Interpretation of Quantum Theory, and the Mind-Body Problem

It has been suggested, on the one hand, that quantum states are just states of knowledge; and, on the other, that quantum theory is merely a theory of correlations. These suggestions are confronted with problems about the nature of psycho-physical parallelism and about how we could define probabilities for our individual future observations given our individual present and previous observations. The complexity of the problems is underlined by arguments that unpredictability in ordinary everyday neural functioning, ultimately stemming from small-scale uncertainties in molecular motions, may overwhelm, by many orders of magnitude, many conventionally recognized sources of observed ``quantum'' uncertainty. Some possible ways of avoiding the problems are considered but found wanting. It is proposed that a complete understanding of the relationship between subjective experience and its physical correlates requires the introduction of mathematical definitions and indeed of new physical laws.Comment: 27 pages, plain TeX, v2: missing reference inserted, related papers from http://www.poco.phy.cam.ac.uk/~mjd101