Stochastic Data Clustering

In 1961 Herbert Simon and Albert Ando published the theory behind the long-term behavior of a dynamical system that can be described by a nearly uncoupled matrix. Over the past fifty years this theory has been used in a variety of contexts, including queueing theory, brain organization, and ecology. In all these applications, the structure of the system is known and the point of interest is the various stages the system passes through on its way to some long-term equilibrium. This paper looks at this problem from the other direction. That is, we develop a technique for using the evolution of the system to tell us about its initial structure, and we use this technique to develop a new algorithm for data clustering.Comment: 23 page

Asymptotic Expansions for Stationary Distributions of Perturbed Semi-Markov Processes

New algorithms for computing of asymptotic expansions for stationary distributions of nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes are presented. The algorithms are based on special techniques of sequential phase space reduction, which can be applied to processes with asymptotically coupled and uncoupled finite phase spaces.Comment: 83 page

Eigenvalue Bounds on Restrictions of Reversible Nearly Uncoupled Markov Chains

AbstractIn this paper we analyze decompositions of reversible nearly uncoupled Markov chains into rapidly mixing subchains. We state upper bounds on the 2nd eigenvalue for restriction and stochastic complementation chains of reversible Markov chains, as well as a relation between them. We illustrate the obtained bounds analytically for bunkbed graphs, and furthermore apply them to restricted Markov chains that arise when analyzing conformation dynamics of a small biomolecule

Blockwise perturbation theory for nearly uncoupled Markov chains and its application

AbstractLet P be the transition matrix of a nearly uncoupled Markov chain. The states can be grouped into aggregates such that P has the block form P=(Pij)i,j=1k, where Pii is square and Pij is small for i≠j. Let πT be the stationary distribution partitioned conformally as πT=(π1T,…,πkT). In this paper we bound the relative error in each aggregate distribution πiT caused by small relative perturbations in Pij. The error bounds demonstrate that nearly uncoupled Markov chains usually lead to well-conditioned problems in the sense of blockwise relative error. As an application, we show that with appropriate stopping criteria, iterative aggregation/disaggregation algorithms will achieve such structured backward errors and compute each aggregate distribution with high relative accuracy

Concepts and a case study for a flexible class of graphical Markov models

With graphical Markov models, one can investigate complex dependences, summarize some results of statistical analyses with graphs and use these graphs to understand implications of well-fitting models. The models have a rich history and form an area that has been intensively studied and developed in recent years. We give a brief review of the main concepts and describe in more detail a flexible subclass of models, called traceable regressions. These are sequences of joint response regressions for which regression graphs permit one to trace and thereby understand pathways of dependence. We use these methods to reanalyze and interpret data from a prospective study of child development, now known as the Mannheim Study of Children at Risk. The two related primary features concern cognitive and motor development, at the age of 4.5 and 8 years of a child. Deficits in these features form a sequence of joint responses. Several possible risks are assessed at birth of the child and when the child reached age 3 months and 2 years.Comment: 21 pages, 7 figures, 7 tables; invited, refereed chapter in a boo