The dynamics of Machiavellian intelligence

The "Machiavellian intelligence" hypothesis (or the "social brain" hypothesis) posits that large brains and distinctive cognitive abilities of humans have evolved via intense social competition in which social competitors developed increasingly sophisticated "Machiavellian" strategies as a means to achieve higher social and reproductive success. Here we build a mathematical model aiming to explore this hypothesis. In the model, genes control brains which invent and learn strategies (memes) which are used by males to gain advantage in competition for mates. We show that the dynamics of intelligence has three distinct phases. During the dormant phase only newly invented memes are present in the population. During the cognitive explosion phase the population's meme count and the learning ability, cerebral capacity (controlling the number of different memes that the brain can learn and use), and Machiavellian fitness of individuals increase in a runaway fashion. During the saturation phase natural selection resulting from the costs of having large brains checks further increases in cognitive abilities. Overall, our results suggest that the mechanisms underlying the "Machiavellian intelligence" hypothesis can indeed result in the evolution of significant cognitive abilities on the time scale of 10 to 20 thousand generations. We show that cerebral capacity evolves faster and to a larger degree than learning ability. Our model suggests that there may be a tendency toward a reduction in cognitive abilities (driven by the costs of having a large brain) as the reproductive advantage of having a large brain decreases and the exposure to memes increases in modern societies.Comment: A revised version has been published by PNA

Neural network-based colonoscopic diagnosis using on-line learning and differential evolution

In this paper, on-line training of neural networks is investigated in the context of computer-assisted colonoscopic diagnosis. A memory-based adaptation of the learning rate for the on-line back-propagation (BP) is proposed and used to seed an on-line evolution process that applies a differential evolution (DE) strategy to (re-) adapt the neural network to modified environmental conditions. Our approach looks at on-line training from the perspective of tracking the changing location of an approximate solution of a pattern-based, and thus, dynamically changing, error function. The proposed hybrid strategy is compared with other standard training methods that have traditionally been used for training neural networks off-line. Results in interpreting colonoscopy images and frames of video sequences are promising and suggest that networks trained with this strategy detect malignant regions of interest with accuracy

More than one way to see it: Individual heuristics in avian visual computation

Comparative pattern learning experiments investigate how different species find regularities in sensory input, providing insights into cognitive processing in humans and other animals. Past research has focused either on one species’ ability to process pattern classes or different species’ performance in recognizing the same pattern, with little attention to individual and species-specific heuristics and decision strategies. We trained and tested two bird species, pigeons (Columba livia) and kea (Nestor notabilis, a parrot species), on visual patterns using touch-screen technology. Patterns were composed of several abstract elements and had varying degrees of structural complexity. We developed a model selection paradigm, based on regular expressions, that allowed us to reconstruct the specific decision strategies and cognitive heuristics adopted by a given individual in our task. Individual birds showed considerable differences in the number, type and heterogeneity of heuristic strategies adopted. Birds’ choices also exhibited consistent species-level differences. Kea adopted effective heuristic strategies, based on matching learned bigrams to stimulus edges. Individual pigeons, in contrast, adopted an idiosyncratic mix of strategies that included local transition probabilities and global string similarity. Although performance was above chance and quite high for kea, no individual of either species provided clear evidence of learning exactly the rule used to generate the training stimuli. Our results show that similar behavioral outcomes can be achieved using dramatically different strategies and highlight the dangers of combining multiple individuals in a group analysis. These findings, and our general approach, have implications for the design of future pattern learning experiments, and the interpretation of comparative cognition research more generally

Bayesian forecasting and scalable multivariate volatility analysis using simultaneous graphical dynamic models

The recently introduced class of simultaneous graphical dynamic linear models (SGDLMs) defines an ability to scale on-line Bayesian analysis and forecasting to higher-dimensional time series. This paper advances the methodology of SGDLMs, developing and embedding a novel, adaptive method of simultaneous predictor selection in forward filtering for on-line learning and forecasting. The advances include developments in Bayesian computation for scalability, and a case study in exploring the resulting potential for improved short-term forecasting of large-scale volatility matrices. A case study concerns financial forecasting and portfolio optimization with a 400-dimensional series of daily stock prices. Analysis shows that the SGDLM forecasts volatilities and co-volatilities well, making it ideally suited to contributing to quantitative investment strategies to improve portfolio returns. We also identify performance metrics linked to the sequential Bayesian filtering analysis that turn out to define a leading indicator of increased financial market stresses, comparable to but leading the standard St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) measure. Parallel computation using GPU implementations substantially advance the ability to fit and use these models.Comment: 28 pages, 9 figures, 7 table