Stigmergy-based modeling to discover urban activity patterns from positioning data

Positioning data offer a remarkable source of information to analyze crowds urban dynamics. However, discovering urban activity patterns from the emergent behavior of crowds involves complex system modeling. An alternative approach is to adopt computational techniques belonging to the emergent paradigm, which enables self-organization of data and allows adaptive analysis. Specifically, our approach is based on stigmergy. By using stigmergy each sample position is associated with a digital pheromone deposit, which progressively evaporates and aggregates with other deposits according to their spatiotemporal proximity. Based on this principle, we exploit positioning data to identify high density areas (hotspots) and characterize their activity over time. This characterization allows the comparison of dynamics occurring in different days, providing a similarity measure exploitable by clustering techniques. Thus, we cluster days according to their activity behavior, discovering unexpected urban activity patterns. As a case study, we analyze taxi traces in New York City during 2015

A high resolution spatiotemporal model for in-vehicle black carbon exposure : quantifying the in-vehicle exposure reduction due to the Euro 5 particulate matter standard legislation

Several studies have shown that a significant amount of daily air pollution exposure is inhaled during trips. In this study, car drivers assessed their own black carbon exposure under real-life conditions (223 h of data from 2013). The spatiotemporal exposure of the car drivers is modeled using a data science approach, referred to as microscopic land-use regression (mu LUR). In-vehicle exposure is highly dynamical and is strongly related to the local traffic dynamics. An extensive set of potential covariates was used to model the in-vehicle black carbon exposure in a temporal resolution of 10 s. Traffic was retrieved directly from traffic databases and indirectly by attributing the trips through a noise map as an alternative traffic source. Modeling by generalized additive models (GAM) shows non-linear effects for meteorology and diurnal traffic patterns. A fitted diurnal pattern explains indirectly the complex diurnal variability of the exposure due to the non-linear interaction between traffic density and distance to the preceding vehicles. Comparing the strength of direct traffic attribution and indirect noise map-based traffic attribution reveals the potential of noise maps as a proxy for traffic-related air pollution exposure. An external validation, based on a dataset gathered in 2010-2011, quantifies the exposure reduction inside the vehicles at 33% (mean) and 50% (median). The EU PM Euro 5 PM emission standard (in force since 2009) explains the largest part of the discrepancy between the measurement campaign in 2013 and the validation dataset. The mu LUR methodology provides a high resolution, route-sensitive, seasonal and meteorology-sensitive personal exposure estimate for epidemiologists and policy makers

Delays, Inaccuracies and Anticipation in Microscopic Traffic Models

We generalize a wide class of time-continuous microscopic traffic models to include essential aspects of driver behaviour not captured by these models. Specifically, we consider (i) finite reaction times, (ii) estimation errors, (iii) looking several vehicles ahead (spatial anticipation), and (iv) temporal anticipation. The estimation errors are modelled as stochastic Wiener processes and lead to time-correlated fluctuations of the acceleration. We show that the destabilizing effects of reaction times and estimation errors can essentially be compensated for by spatial and temporal anticipation, that is, the combination of stabilizing and destabilizing effects results in the same qualitative macroscopic dynamics as that of the respectively underlying simple car-following model. In many cases, this justifies the use of simplified, physics-oriented models with a few parameters only. Although the qualitative dynamics is unchanged, multi-anticipation increase both spatial and temporal scales of stop-and-go waves and other complex patterns of congested traffic in agreement with real traffic data. Remarkably, the anticipation allows accident-free smooth driving in complex traffic situations even if reaction times exceed typical time headways.Comment: Major revision of the model and the simulations. Particularly, the number of model parameters has been reduce

Neural-Attention-Based Deep Learning Architectures for Modeling Traffic Dynamics on Lane Graphs

Deep neural networks can be powerful tools, but require careful application-specific design to ensure that the most informative relationships in the data are learnable. In this paper, we apply deep neural networks to the nonlinear spatiotemporal physics problem of vehicle traffic dynamics. We consider problems of estimating macroscopic quantities (e.g., the queue at an intersection) at a lane level. First-principles modeling at the lane scale has been a challenge due to complexities in modeling social behaviors like lane changes, and those behaviors' resultant macro-scale effects. Following domain knowledge that upstream/downstream lanes and neighboring lanes affect each others' traffic flows in distinct ways, we apply a form of neural attention that allows the neural network layers to aggregate information from different lanes in different manners. Using a microscopic traffic simulator as a testbed, we obtain results showing that an attentional neural network model can use information from nearby lanes to improve predictions, and, that explicitly encoding the lane-to-lane relationship types significantly improves performance. We also demonstrate the transfer of our learned neural network to a more complex road network, discuss how its performance degradation may be attributable to new traffic behaviors induced by increased topological complexity, and motivate learning dynamics models from many road network topologies.Comment: To appear at 2019 IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation System

Autonomous Accident Monitoring Using Cellular Network Data

Mobile communication networks constitute large-scale sensor networks that generate huge amounts of data that can be refined into collective mobility patterns. In this paper we propose a method for using these patterns to autonomously monitor and detect accidents and other critical events. The approach is to identify a measure that is approximately time-invariant on short time-scales under regular conditions, estimate the short and long-term dynamics of this measure using Bayesian inference, and identify sudden shifts in mobility patterns by monitoring the divergence between the short and long-term estimates. By estimating long-term dynamics, the method is also able to adapt to long-term trends in data. As a proof-of-concept, we apply this approach in a vehicular traffic scenario, where we demonstrate that the method can detect traffic accidents and distinguish these from regular events, such as traffic congestions

A survey on Human Mobility and its applications

Human Mobility has attracted attentions from different fields of studies such as epidemic modeling, traffic engineering, traffic prediction and urban planning. In this survey we review major characteristics of human mobility studies including from trajectory-based studies to studies using graph and network theory. In trajectory-based studies statistical measures such as jump length distribution and radius of gyration are analyzed in order to investigate how people move in their daily life, and if it is possible to model this individual movements and make prediction based on them. Using graph in mobility studies, helps to investigate the dynamic behavior of the system, such as diffusion and flow in the network and makes it easier to estimate how much one part of the network influences another by using metrics like centrality measures. We aim to study population flow in transportation networks using mobility data to derive models and patterns, and to develop new applications in predicting phenomena such as congestion. Human Mobility studies with the new generation of mobility data provided by cellular phone networks, arise new challenges such as data storing, data representation, data analysis and computation complexity. A comparative review of different data types used in current tools and applications of Human Mobility studies leads us to new approaches for dealing with mentioned challenges