Identification of uncertainty sources in distributed hydrological modelling: Case study of the Grote Nete catchment in Belgium

The quest for good practice in modelling merits thorough and sustained attention since good practice increases the credibility and impact of the information, and insight that modelling seeks to generate. This paper presents the findings of an evaluation whose goal was to understand the uncertainty in applying a distributed hydrological model to the Grote Nete catchment in Flanders, Belgium. Uncertainties were selected for investigation depending on how significantly they affected the model’s decision variables. A Fault Tree was used to determine various combinations of inputs, mathematical code, and human error failures that could result in a specified risk. A combination of forward and backward approaches was used in developing the Fault Tree. Eleven events were identified as contributing to the top event. A total of 7 gates were used to describe the Fault Tree. A critical path analysis was carried out for the events and established their rank or order of significance. Three measures of importance were applied, namely the F-Vesely, the Birnbaum, and the B-Proschan importance measures. Model development of distributed models involves considerable uncertainty. Many of these dependencies arise naturally and their correct evaluation is crucial to the accurate analysis of the modelling system reliability.Keywords: distributed hydrological models, Grote Nete, MIKE SHE, uncertaint

Qualitative temporal analysis: Towards a full implementation of the Fault Tree Handbook

The Fault tree handbook has become the de facto standard for fault tree analysis (FTA), defining the notation and mathematical foundation of this widely used safety analysis technique. The Handbook recognises that classical combinatorial fault trees employing only Boolean gates cannot capture the potentially critical significance of the temporal ordering of failure events in a system. Although the Handbook proposes two dynamic gates that could remedy this, a Priority-AND and an Exclusive-OR gate, these gates were never accurately defined. This paper proposes extensions to the logical foundation of fault trees that enable use of these dynamic gates in an extended and more powerful FTA. The benefits of this approach are demonstrated on a generic triple-module standby redundant system exhibiting dynamic behaviour

Alternative sweetener from curculigo fruits

This study gives an overview on the advantages of Curculigo Latifolia as an alternative sweetener and a health product. The purpose of this research is to provide another option to the people who suffer from diabetes. In this research, Curculigo Latifolia was chosen, due to its unique properties and widely known species in Malaysia. In order to obtain the sweet protein from the fruit, it must go through a couple of procedures. First we harvested the fruits from the Curculigo trees that grow wildly in the garden. Next, the Curculigo fruits were dried in the oven at 50 0C for 3 days. Finally, the dried fruits were blended in order to get a fine powder. Curculin is a sweet protein with a taste-modifying activity of converting sourness to sweetness. The curculin content from the sample shown are directly proportional to the mass of the Curculigo fine powder. While the FTIR result shows that the sample spectrum at peak 1634 cm–1 contains secondary amines. At peak 3307 cm–1 contains alkynes

Recent developments in the application of risk analysis to waste technologies.

The European waste sector is undergoing a period of unprecedented change driven by business consolidation, new legislation and heightened public and government scrutiny. One feature is the transition of the sector towards a process industry with increased pre-treatment of wastes prior to the disposal of residues and the co-location of technologies at single sites, often also for resource recovery and residuals management. Waste technologies such as in-vessel composting, the thermal treatment of clinical waste, the stabilisation of hazardous wastes, biomass gasification, sludge combustion and the use of wastes as fuel, present operators and regulators with new challenges as to their safe and environmentally responsible operation. A second feature of recent change is an increased regulatory emphasis on public and ecosystem health and the need for assessments of risk to and from waste installations. Public confidence in waste management, secured in part through enforcement of the planning and permitting regimes and sound operational performance, is central to establishing the infrastructure of new waste technologies. Well-informed risk management plays a critical role. We discuss recent developments in risk analysis within the sector and the future needs of risk analysis that are required to respond to the new waste and resource management agenda

Towards practical classical processing for the surface code

The surface code is unarguably the leading quantum error correction code for 2-D nearest neighbor architectures, featuring a high threshold error rate of approximately 1%, low overhead implementations of the entire Clifford group, and flexible, arbitrarily long-range logical gates. These highly desirable features come at the cost of significant classical processing complexity. We show how to perform the processing associated with an nxn lattice of qubits, each being manipulated in a realistic, fault-tolerant manner, in O(n^2) average time per round of error correction. We also describe how to parallelize the algorithm to achieve O(1) average processing per round, using only constant computing resources per unit area and local communication. Both of these complexities are optimal.Comment: 5 pages, 6 figures, published version with some additional tex

Precursor Analysis for Offshore Oil and Gas Drilling: From Prescriptive to Risk-Informed Regulation

The Oil Spill Commission’s chartered mission—to “develop options to guard against … any oil spills associated with offshore drilling in the future” (National Commission 2010)—presents a major challenge: how to reduce the risk of low-frequency oil spill events, and especially high-consequence events like the Deepwater Horizon accident, when historical experience contains few oil spills of material scale and none approaching the significance of the Deepwater Horizon. In this paper, we consider precursor analysis as an answer to this challenge, addressing first its development and use in nuclear reactor regulation and then its applicability to offshore oil and gas drilling. We find that the nature of offshore drilling risks, the operating information obtainable by the regulator, and the learning curve provided by 30 years of nuclear experience make precursor analysis a promising option available to the U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement (BOEMRE) to bring cost-effective, risk-informed oversight to bear on the threat of catastrophic oil spills.catastrophic oil spills, quantitative risk analysis, risk-informed regulation