11,262 research outputs found
Diversification Preferences in the Theory of Choice
Diversification represents the idea of choosing variety over uniformity.
Within the theory of choice, desirability of diversification is axiomatized as
preference for a convex combination of choices that are equivalently ranked.
This corresponds to the notion of risk aversion when one assumes the
von-Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility model, but the equivalence fails to
hold in other models. This paper studies axiomatizations of the concept of
diversification and their relationship to the related notions of risk aversion
and convex preferences within different choice theoretic models. Implications
of these notions on portfolio choice are discussed. We cover model-independent
diversification preferences, preferences within models of choice under risk,
including expected utility theory and the more general rank-dependent expected
utility theory, as well as models of choice under uncertainty axiomatized via
Choquet expected utility theory. Remarks on interpretations of diversification
preferences within models of behavioral choice are given in the conclusion
Interactions between ageing and risk properties in the analysis of burn-in problems
Several relevant problems in reliability can be looked at as problems of risk management and of decisions in the face of uncertainty. However, in this frame, the so-called burn-in problem can be seen as a problem of risk taking par excellence. In this paper, we in particular point out some aspects concerning interactions between the probabilistic model for lifetimes and considerations of an economic kind. As one of the features of our work, we hinge on some unexplored connections between ageing properties of a one-dimensional survival function Formula and risk-aversion-type properties of the function u(t) = bG(t), b > 0, when the latter is seen as a utility function
Fairness Behind a Veil of Ignorance: A Welfare Analysis for Automated Decision Making
We draw attention to an important, yet largely overlooked aspect of
evaluating fairness for automated decision making systems---namely risk and
welfare considerations. Our proposed family of measures corresponds to the
long-established formulations of cardinal social welfare in economics, and is
justified by the Rawlsian conception of fairness behind a veil of ignorance.
The convex formulation of our welfare-based measures of fairness allows us to
integrate them as a constraint into any convex loss minimization pipeline. Our
empirical analysis reveals interesting trade-offs between our proposal and (a)
prediction accuracy, (b) group discrimination, and (c) Dwork et al.'s notion of
individual fairness. Furthermore and perhaps most importantly, our work
provides both heuristic justification and empirical evidence suggesting that a
lower-bound on our measures often leads to bounded inequality in algorithmic
outcomes; hence presenting the first computationally feasible mechanism for
bounding individual-level inequality.Comment: Conference: Thirty-second Conference on Neural Information Processing
Systems (NIPS 2018
Ambiguity
Ambiguity refers to a decision situation under uncertainty when there is incomplete information about the likelihood of events. Different formal models of this notion have been developed with differing implications about the representation of ambiguity and ambiguity aversion.uncertainty, ambiguity, ambiguity attitude
An overview of economic applications of David Schmeidler`s models of decision making under uncertainty
This paper surveys some economic applications of the decision theoretic framework pioneered by David Schmeidler to model effects of ambiguity. We have organized the discussion principally around three themes: financial markets, contractual arrangements and game theory. The first section discusses papers that have contributed to a better understanding of financial market outcomes based on ambiguity aversion. The second section focusses on contractual arrangements and is divided into two sub-sections. The first sub-section reports research on optimal risk sharing arrangements, while in the second sub-section, discusses research on incentive contracts. The third section concentrates on strategic interaction and reviews several papers that have extended different game theoretic solution concepts to settings with ambiguity averse players. A final section deals with several contributions which while not dealing with ambiguity per se, are linked at a formal level, in terms of the pure mathematical structures involved, with Schmeidler`s models of decision making under ambiguity. These contributions involve issues such as, inequality measurement, intertemporal decision making and multi-attribute choice.Ellsberg Paradox, Ambiguity aversion, Uncertainty aversion
Ambiguity
Ambiguity refers to a decision situation under uncertainty when there is incomplete information about the likelihood of events. Different formal models of this notion have been developed with differing implications about the representation of ambiguity and ambiguity aversion.
A Possibilistic and Probabilistic Approach to Precautionary Saving
This paper proposes two mixed models to study a consumer's optimal saving in
the presence of two types of risk.Comment: Panoeconomicus, 201
Relating the philosophy and practice of ecological economics: The role of concepts, models, and case studies in inter- and transdisciplinary sustainability research
We develop a comprehensive multi-level approach to ecological economics (CML-approach) which integrates philosophical considerations on the foundations of ecological economics with an adequate operationalization. We argue that the subject matter and aims of ecological economics require a specific combination of inter- and transdisciplinary research, and discuss the epistemological position on which this approach is based. In accordance with this understanding of inter- and transdisciplinarity and the underlying epistemological position, we develop an operationalization which comprises simultaneous analysis on three levels of abstraction: concepts, models and case studies. We explain these levels in detail, and, in particular, deduce our way of generic modeling in this context. Finally, we illustrate the CML-approach and demonstrate its fruitfulness by the example of the sustainable management of semi-arid rangelands. --ecological economics,interdisciplinarity,philosophy of science,transdisciplinarity
Preferences for One-Shot Resolution of Uncertainty and Allais-Type Behavior, Second Version
Experimental evidence suggests that individuals are more risk averse when they perceive risk that is gradually resolved over time. We address these findings by studying a decision maker (DM) who has recursive, non-expected utility preferences over compound lotteries. DM has preferences for one-shot resolution of uncertainty (PORU) if he always prefers any compound lottery to be resolved in a single stage. We establish an equivalence between dynamic PORU and static preferences that are identified with commonly observed behavior in Allais-type experiments. The implications of this equivalence on preferences over information systems are examined. We define the gradual resolution premium and demonstrate its magnifying effect when combined with the usual risk premium. In an intertemporal context, PORU captures “loss aversion with narrow framing.”Recursive preferences over compound lotteries, resolution of uncertainty, Allais paradox, narrow framing, negative certainty independence
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