Amplitude dependent frequency, desynchronization, and stabilization in noisy metapopulation dynamics

The enigmatic stability of population oscillations within ecological systems is analyzed. The underlying mechanism is presented in the framework of two interacting species free to migrate between two spatial patches. It is shown that that the combined effects of migration and noise cannot account for the stabilization. The missing ingredient is the dependence of the oscillations' frequency upon their amplitude; with that, noise-induced differences between patches are amplified due to the frequency gradient. Migration among desynchronized regions then stabilizes a "soft" limit cycle in the vicinity of the homogenous manifold. A simple model of diffusively coupled oscillators allows the derivation of quantitative results, like the functional dependence of the desynchronization upon diffusion strength and frequency differences. The oscillations' amplitude is shown to be (almost) noise independent. The results are compared with a numerical integration of the marginally stable Lotka-Volterra equations. An unstable system is extinction-prone for small noise, but stabilizes at larger noise intensity

Synchronization and Stability in Noisy Population Dynamics

We study the stability and synchronization of predator-prey populations subjected to noise. The system is described by patches of local populations coupled by migration and predation over a neighborhood. When a single patch is considered, random perturbations tend to destabilize the populations, leading to extinction. If the number of patches is small, stabilization in the presence of noise is maintained at the expense of synchronization. As the number of patches increases, both the stability and the synchrony among patches increase. However, a residual asynchrony, large compared with the noise amplitude, seems to persist even in the limit of infinite number of patches. Therefore, the mechanism of stabilization by asynchrony recently proposed by R. Abta et. al., combining noise, diffusion and nonlinearities, seems to be more general than first proposed.Comment: 3 pages, 3 figures. To appear in Phys. Rev.

Revisiting the stability of spatially heterogeneous predator-prey systems under eutrophication

We employ partial integro-differential equations to model trophic interaction in a spatially extended heterogeneous environment. Compared to classical reaction-diffusion models, this framework allows us to more realistically describe the situation where movement of individuals occurs on a faster time scale than the demographic (population) time scale, and we cannot determine population growth based on local density. However, most of the results reported so far for such systems have only been verified numerically and for a particular choice of model functions, which obviously casts doubts about these findings. In this paper, we analyse a class of integro-differential predator-prey models with a highly mobile predator in a heterogeneous environment, and we reveal the main factors stabilizing such systems. In particular, we explore an ecologically relevant case of interactions in a highly eutrophic environment, where the prey carrying capacity can be formally set to 'infinity'. We investigate two main scenarios: (i) the spatial gradient of the growth rate is due to abiotic factors only, and (ii) the local growth rate depends on the global density distribution across the environment (e.g. due to non-local self-shading). For an arbitrary spatial gradient of the prey growth rate, we analytically investigate the possibility of the predator-prey equilibrium in such systems and we explore the conditions of stability of this equilibrium. In particular, we demonstrate that for a Holling type I (linear) functional response, the predator can stabilize the system at low prey density even for an 'unlimited' carrying capacity. We conclude that the interplay between spatial heterogeneity in the prey growth and fast displacement of the predator across the habitat works as an efficient stabilizing mechanism.Comment: 2 figures; appendices available on request. To appear in the Bulletin of Mathematical Biolog

Complex dynamics in coevolution models with ratio-dependent functional response

We explore the complex dynamical behavior of two simple predator-prey models of biological coevolution that on the ecological level account for interspecific and intraspecific competition, as well as adaptive foraging behavior. The underlying individual-based population dynamics are based on a ratio-dependent functional response [W.M. Getz, J. Theor. Biol. 108, 623 (1984)]. Analytical results for fixed-point population sizes in some simple communities are derived and discussed. In long kinetic Monte Carlo simulations we find quite robust, approximate 1/f noise in species diversity and population sizes, as well as power-law distributions for the lifetimes of individual species and the durations of periods of relative evolutionary stasis. Adaptive foraging enhances coexistence of species and produces a metastable low-diversity phase and a stable high-diversity phase.Comment: 19 page

Predation effects on mean time to extinction under demographic stochasticity

Methods for predicting the probability and timing of a species' extinction are typically based on a combination of theoretical models and empirical data, and focus on single species population dynamics. Of course, species also interact with each other, forming more or less complex networks of interactions. Models to assess extinction risk often lack explicit incorporation of these interspecific interactions. We study a birth and death process in which the death rate includes an effect from predation. This predation rate is included via a general nonlinear expression for the functional response of predation to prey density. We investigate the effects of the foraging parameters (e.g. attack rate and handling time) on the mean time to extinction. Mean time to extinction varies by orders of magnitude when we alter the foraging parameters, even when we exclude the effects of these parameters on the equilibrium population size. In particular we observe an exponential dependence of the mean time to extinction on handling time. These findings clearly show that accounting for the nature of interspecific interactions is likely to be critically important when estimating extinction risk.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures; Typos removed. For further discussion about the paper go to http://purl.org/net/extinctio

Effects of rapid prey evolution on predator-prey cycles

We study the qualitative properties of population cycles in a predator-prey system where genetic variability allows contemporary rapid evolution of the prey. Previous numerical studies have found that prey evolution in response to changing predation risk can have major quantitative and qualitative effects on predator-prey cycles, including: (i) large increases in cycle period, (ii) changes in phase relations (so that predator and prey are cycling exactly out of phase, rather than the classical quarter-period phase lag), and (iii) "cryptic" cycles in which total prey density remains nearly constant while predator density and prey traits cycle. Here we focus on a chemostat model motivated by our experimental system [Fussmann et al. 2000,Yoshida et al. 2003] with algae (prey) and rotifers (predators), in which the prey exhibit rapid evolution in their level of defense against predation. We show that the effects of rapid prey evolution are robust and general, and furthermore that they occur in a specific but biologically relevant region of parameter space: when traits that greatly reduce predation risk are relatively cheap (in terms of reductions in other fitness components), when there is coexistence between the two prey types and the predator, and when the interaction between predators and undefended prey alone would produce cycles. Because defense has been shown to be inexpensive, even cost-free, in a number of systems [Andersson and Levin 1999, Gagneux et al. 2006,Yoshida et al. 2004], our discoveries may well be reproduced in other model systems, and in nature. Finally, some of our key results are extended to a general model in which functional forms for the predation rate and prey birth rate are not specified.Comment: 35 pages, 8 figure