Evaluation methods and decision theory for classification of streaming data with temporal dependence

Predictive modeling on data streams plays an important role in modern data analysis, where data arrives continuously and needs to be mined in real time. In the stream setting the data distribution is often evolving over time, and models that update themselves during operation are becoming the state-of-the-art. This paper formalizes a learning and evaluation scheme of such predictive models. We theoretically analyze evaluation of classifiers on streaming data with temporal dependence. Our findings suggest that the commonly accepted data stream classification measures, such as classification accuracy and Kappa statistic, fail to diagnose cases of poor performance when temporal dependence is present, therefore they should not be used as sole performance indicators. Moreover, classification accuracy can be misleading if used as a proxy for evaluating change detectors with datasets that have temporal dependence. We formulate the decision theory for streaming data classification with temporal dependence and develop a new evaluation methodology for data stream classification that takes temporal dependence into account. We propose a combined measure for classification performance, that takes into account temporal dependence, and we recommend using it as the main performance measure in classification of streaming data

Predicting Future Instance Segmentation by Forecasting Convolutional Features

Anticipating future events is an important prerequisite towards intelligent behavior. Video forecasting has been studied as a proxy task towards this goal. Recent work has shown that to predict semantic segmentation of future frames, forecasting at the semantic level is more effective than forecasting RGB frames and then segmenting these. In this paper we consider the more challenging problem of future instance segmentation, which additionally segments out individual objects. To deal with a varying number of output labels per image, we develop a predictive model in the space of fixed-sized convolutional features of the Mask R-CNN instance segmentation model. We apply the "detection head'" of Mask R-CNN on the predicted features to produce the instance segmentation of future frames. Experiments show that this approach significantly improves over strong baselines based on optical flow and repurposed instance segmentation architectures

A Multi-Armed Bandit to Smartly Select a Training Set from Big Medical Data

With the availability of big medical image data, the selection of an adequate training set is becoming more important to address the heterogeneity of different datasets. Simply including all the data does not only incur high processing costs but can even harm the prediction. We formulate the smart and efficient selection of a training dataset from big medical image data as a multi-armed bandit problem, solved by Thompson sampling. Our method assumes that image features are not available at the time of the selection of the samples, and therefore relies only on meta information associated with the images. Our strategy simultaneously exploits data sources with high chances of yielding useful samples and explores new data regions. For our evaluation, we focus on the application of estimating the age from a brain MRI. Our results on 7,250 subjects from 10 datasets show that our approach leads to higher accuracy while only requiring a fraction of the training data.Comment: MICCAI 2017 Proceeding

EC3: Combining Clustering and Classification for Ensemble Learning

Classification and clustering algorithms have been proved to be successful individually in different contexts. Both of them have their own advantages and limitations. For instance, although classification algorithms are more powerful than clustering methods in predicting class labels of objects, they do not perform well when there is a lack of sufficient manually labeled reliable data. On the other hand, although clustering algorithms do not produce label information for objects, they provide supplementary constraints (e.g., if two objects are clustered together, it is more likely that the same label is assigned to both of them) that one can leverage for label prediction of a set of unknown objects. Therefore, systematic utilization of both these types of algorithms together can lead to better prediction performance. In this paper, We propose a novel algorithm, called EC3 that merges classification and clustering together in order to support both binary and multi-class classification. EC3 is based on a principled combination of multiple classification and multiple clustering methods using an optimization function. We theoretically show the convexity and optimality of the problem and solve it by block coordinate descent method. We additionally propose iEC3, a variant of EC3 that handles imbalanced training data. We perform an extensive experimental analysis by comparing EC3 and iEC3 with 14 baseline methods (7 well-known standalone classifiers, 5 ensemble classifiers, and 2 existing methods that merge classification and clustering) on 13 standard benchmark datasets. We show that our methods outperform other baselines for every single dataset, achieving at most 10% higher AUC. Moreover our methods are faster (1.21 times faster than the best baseline), more resilient to noise and class imbalance than the best baseline method.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures, 11 table