Credit Assignment in Adaptive Evolutionary Algorithms

In this paper, a new method for assigning credit to search\ud operators is presented. Starting with the principle of optimizing\ud search bias, search operators are selected based on an ability to\ud create solutions that are historically linked to future generations.\ud Using a novel framework for defining performance\ud measurements, distributing credit for performance, and the\ud statistical interpretation of this credit, a new adaptive method is\ud developed and shown to outperform a variety of adaptive and\ud non-adaptive competitors

Local Short Term Electricity Load Forecasting: Automatic Approaches

Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is a fundamental component in the efficient management of power systems, which has been studied intensively over the past 50 years. The emerging development of smart grid technologies is posing new challenges as well as opportunities to STLF. Load data, collected at higher geographical granularity and frequency through thousands of smart meters, allows us to build a more accurate local load forecasting model, which is essential for local optimization of power load through demand side management. With this paper, we show how several existing approaches for STLF are not applicable on local load forecasting, either because of long training time, unstable optimization process, or sensitivity to hyper-parameters. Accordingly, we select five models suitable for local STFL, which can be trained on different time-series with limited intervention from the user. The experiment, which consists of 40 time-series collected at different locations and aggregation levels, revealed that yearly pattern and temperature information are only useful for high aggregation level STLF. On local STLF task, the modified version of double seasonal Holt-Winter proposed in this paper performs relatively well with only 3 months of training data, compared to more complex methods

An optimization method for nacelle design

A multi-objective optimiZation method is demonstrated using an evolutionary genetic algorithm. The applicability of this method to preliminary nacelle design is demonstrated by coupling it with a response surface model of a wide range of nacelle designs. These designs were modelled using computational fluid dynamics and a Kriging interpolation was carried out on the results. The NSGA-II algorithm was tested and verified on established multi-dimensional problems. Optimisation on the nacelle model provided 3-dimensional Pareto surfaces of optimal designs at both cruise and off-design conditions. In setting up this methodology several adaptations to the basic NSGA-II algorithm were tested including constraint handling, weighted objective functions and initial sample size. The influence of these operators is demonstrated in terms of the hyper volume of the determined Pareto set