Towards an inclusion driven learning of Bayesian Networks

Two or more Bayesian Networks are Markov equivalent when their corresponding acyclic digraphs encode the same set of conditional independence (= CI) restrictions. Therefore, the search space of Bayesian Networks may be organized in classes of equivalence, where each of them consists of a particular set of CI restrictions. The collection of sets of CI restrictions obeys a partial order, the graphical Markov model inclusion partial order, or inclusion order for short. This paper discusses in depth the role that inclusion order plays in learning the structure of Bayesian networks. We prove that under very special conditions the traditional hill-climber always recovers the right structure. Moreover, we extend the recent experimental results presented in (Kocka and Castelo, 2001). We show how learning algorithms for Bayesian Networks, that take the inclusion order into account, perform better than those that do not, and we introduce two new ones in the context of heuristic search and the MCMC method

Hyper and structural Markov laws for graphical models

My thesis focuses on the parameterisation and estimation of graphical models, based on the concept of hyper and meta Markov properties. These state that the parameters should exhibit conditional independencies, similar to those on the sample space. When these properties are satisfied, parameter estimation may be performed locally, i.e. the estimators for certain subsets of the graph are determined entirely by the data corresponding to the subset. Firstly, I discuss the applications of these properties to the analysis of case-control studies. It has long been established that the maximum likelihood estimates for the odds-ratio may be found by logistic regression, in other words, the "incorrect" prospective model is equivalent to the correct retrospective model. I use a generalisation of the hyper Markov properties to identify necessary and sufficient conditions for the corresponding result in a Bayesian analysis, that is, the posterior distribution for the odds-ratio is the same under both the prospective and retrospective likelihoods. These conditions can be used to derive a parametric family of prior laws that may be used for such an analysis. The second part focuses on the problem of inferring the structure of the underlying graph. I propose an extension of the meta and hyper Markov properties, which I term structural Markov properties, for both undirected decomposable graphs and directed acyclic graphs. Roughly speaking, it requires that the structure of distinct components of the graph are conditionally independent given the existence of a separating component. This allows the analysis and comparison of multiple graphical structures, while being able to take advantage of the common conditional independence constraints. Moreover, I show that these properties characterise exponential families, which form conjugate priors under sampling from compatible Markov distributions

VPRS-based regional decision fusion of CNN and MRF classifications for very fine resolution remotely sensed images

Recent advances in computer vision and pattern recognition have demonstrated the superiority of deep neural networks using spatial feature representation, such as convolutional neural networks (CNN), for image classification. However, any classifier, regardless of its model structure (deep or shallow), involves prediction uncertainty when classifying spatially and spectrally complicated very fine spatial resolution (VFSR) imagery. We propose here to characterise the uncertainty distribution of CNN classification and integrate it into a regional decision fusion to increase classification accuracy. Specifically, a variable precision rough set (VPRS) model is proposed to quantify the uncertainty within CNN classifications of VFSR imagery, and partition this uncertainty into positive regions (correct classifications) and non-positive regions (uncertain or incorrect classifications). Those “more correct” areas were trusted by the CNN, whereas the uncertain areas were rectified by a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP)-based Markov random field (MLP-MRF) classifier to provide crisp and accurate boundary delineation. The proposed MRF-CNN fusion decision strategy exploited the complementary characteristics of the two classifiers based on VPRS uncertainty description and classification integration. The effectiveness of the MRF-CNN method was tested in both urban and rural areas of southern England as well as Semantic Labelling datasets. The MRF-CNN consistently outperformed the benchmark MLP, SVM, MLP-MRF and CNN and the baseline methods. This research provides a regional decision fusion framework within which to gain the advantages of model-based CNN, while overcoming the problem of losing effective resolution and uncertain prediction at object boundaries, which is especially pertinent for complex VFSR image classification

Stochastic hybrid system : modelling and verification

Hybrid systems now form a classical computational paradigm unifying discrete and continuous system aspects. The modelling, analysis and verification of these systems are very difficult. One way to reduce the complexity of hybrid system models is to consider randomization. The need for stochastic models has actually multiple motivations. Usually, when building models complete information is not available and we have to consider stochastic versions. Moreover, non-determinism and uncertainty are inherent to complex systems. The stochastic approach can be thought of as a way of quantifying non-determinism (by assigning a probability to each possible execution branch) and managing uncertainty. This is built upon to the - now classical - approach in algorithmics that provides polynomial complexity algorithms via randomization. In this thesis we investigate the stochastic hybrid systems, focused on modelling and analysis. We propose a powerful unifying paradigm that combines analytical and formal methods. Its applications vary from air traffic control to communication networks and healthcare systems. The stochastic hybrid system paradigm has an explosive development. This is because of its very powerful expressivity and the great variety of possible applications. Each hybrid system model can be randomized in different ways, giving rise to many classes of stochastic hybrid systems. Moreover, randomization can change profoundly the mathematical properties of discrete and continuous aspects and also can influence their interaction. Beyond the profound foundational and semantics issues, there is the possibility to combine and cross-fertilize techniques from analytic mathematics (like optimization, control, adaptivity, stability, existence and uniqueness of trajectories, sensitivity analysis) and formal methods (like bisimulation, specification, reachability analysis, model checking). These constitute the major motivations of our research. We investigate new models of stochastic hybrid systems and their associated problems. The main difference from the existing approaches is that we do not follow one way (based only on continuous or discrete mathematics), but their cross-fertilization. For stochastic hybrid systems we introduce concepts that have been defined only for discrete transition systems. Then, techniques that have been used in discrete automata now come in a new analytical fashion. This is partly explained by the fact that popular verification methods (like theorem proving) can hardly work even on probabilistic extensions of discrete systems. When the continuous dimension is added, the idea to use continuous mathematics methods for verification purposes comes in a natural way. The concrete contribution of this thesis has four major milestones: 1. A new and a very general model for stochastic hybrid systems; 2. Stochastic reachability for stochastic hybrid systems is introduced together with an approximating method to compute reach set probabilities; 3. Bisimulation for stochastic hybrid systems is introduced and relationship with reachability analysis is investigated. 4. Considering the communication issue, we extend the modelling paradigm