On the Consistency of Optimal Bayesian Feature Selection in the Presence of Correlations

Optimal Bayesian feature selection (OBFS) is a multivariate supervised screening method designed from the ground up for biomarker discovery. In this work, we prove that Gaussian OBFS is strongly consistent under mild conditions, and provide rates of convergence for key posteriors in the framework. These results are of enormous importance, since they identify precisely what features are selected by OBFS asymptotically, characterize the relative rates of convergence for posteriors on different types of features, provide conditions that guarantee convergence, justify the use of OBFS when its internal assumptions are invalid, and set the stage for understanding the asymptotic behavior of other algorithms based on the OBFS framework.Comment: 33 pages, 1 figur

Bayesian Variable Selection with Structure Learning: Applications in Integrative Genomics

Significant advances in biotechnology have allowed for simultaneous measurement of molecular data points across multiple genomic and transcriptomic levels from a single tumor/cancer sample. This has motivated systematic approaches to integrate multi-dimensional structured datasets since cancer development and progression is driven by numerous co-ordinated molecular alterations and the interactions between them. We propose a novel two-step Bayesian approach that combines a variable selection framework with integrative structure learning between multiple sources of data. The structure learning in the first step is accomplished through novel joint graphical models for heterogeneous (mixed scale) data allowing for flexible incorporation of prior knowledge. This structure learning subsequently informs the variable selection in the second step to identify groups of molecular features within and across platforms associated with outcomes of cancer progression. The variable selection strategy adjusts for collinearity and multiplicity, and also has theoretical justifications. We evaluate our methods through simulations and apply them to a motivating genomic (DNA copy number and methylation) and transcriptomic (mRNA expression) data for assessing important markers associated with Glioblastoma progression

Ranking and Selection as Stochastic Control

Under a Bayesian framework, we formulate the fully sequential sampling and selection decision in statistical ranking and selection as a stochastic control problem, and derive the associated Bellman equation. Using value function approximation, we derive an approximately optimal allocation policy. We show that this policy is not only computationally efficient but also possesses both one-step-ahead and asymptotic optimality for independent normal sampling distributions. Moreover, the proposed allocation policy is easily generalizable in the approximate dynamic programming paradigm.Comment: 15 pages, 8 figures, to appear in IEEE Transactions on Automatic Contro

Bayesian variable selection with shrinking and diffusing priors

We consider a Bayesian approach to variable selection in the presence of high dimensional covariates based on a hierarchical model that places prior distributions on the regression coefficients as well as on the model space. We adopt the well-known spike and slab Gaussian priors with a distinct feature, that is, the prior variances depend on the sample size through which appropriate shrinkage can be achieved. We show the strong selection consistency of the proposed method in the sense that the posterior probability of the true model converges to one even when the number of covariates grows nearly exponentially with the sample size. This is arguably the strongest selection consistency result that has been available in the Bayesian variable selection literature; yet the proposed method can be carried out through posterior sampling with a simple Gibbs sampler. Furthermore, we argue that the proposed method is asymptotically similar to model selection with the $L_0$ penalty. We also demonstrate through empirical work the fine performance of the proposed approach relative to some state of the art alternatives.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOS1207 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Anchored Discrete Factor Analysis

We present a semi-supervised learning algorithm for learning discrete factor analysis models with arbitrary structure on the latent variables. Our algorithm assumes that every latent variable has an "anchor", an observed variable with only that latent variable as its parent. Given such anchors, we show that it is possible to consistently recover moments of the latent variables and use these moments to learn complete models. We also introduce a new technique for improving the robustness of method-of-moment algorithms by optimizing over the marginal polytope or its relaxations. We evaluate our algorithm using two real-world tasks, tag prediction on questions from the Stack Overflow website and medical diagnosis in an emergency department

Bayes Regularized Graphical Model Estimation in High Dimensions

There has been an intense development of Bayes graphical model estimation approaches over the past decade - however, most of the existing methods are restricted to moderate dimensions. We propose a novel approach suitable for high dimensional settings, by decoupling model fitting and covariance selection. First, a full model based on a complete graph is fit under novel class of continuous shrinkage priors on the precision matrix elements, which induces shrinkage under an equivalence with Cholesky-based regularization while enabling conjugate updates of entire precision matrices. Subsequently, we propose a post-fitting graphical model estimation step which proceeds using penalized joint credible regions to perform neighborhood selection sequentially for each node. The posterior computation proceeds using straightforward fully Gibbs sampling, and the approach is scalable to high dimensions. The proposed approach is shown to be asymptotically consistent in estimating the graph structure for fixed $p$ when the truth is a Gaussian graphical model. Simulations show that our approach compares favorably with Bayesian competitors both in terms of graphical model estimation and computational efficiency. We apply our methods to high dimensional gene expression and microRNA datasets in cancer genomics.Comment: 42 Pages, 4 figures, 5 table

Deep Learning Interfacial Momentum Closures in Coarse-Mesh CFD Two-Phase Flow Simulation Using Validation Data

Multiphase flow phenomena have been widely observed in the industrial applications, yet it remains a challenging unsolved problem. Three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approaches resolve of the flow fields on finer spatial and temporal scales, which can complement dedicated experimental study. However, closures must be introduced to reflect the underlying physics in multiphase flow. Among them, the interfacial forces, including drag, lift, turbulent-dispersion and wall-lubrication forces, play an important role in bubble distribution and migration in liquid-vapor two-phase flows. Development of those closures traditionally rely on the experimental data and analytical derivation with simplified assumptions that usually cannot deliver a universal solution across a wide range of flow conditions. In this paper, a data-driven approach, named as feature-similarity measurement (FSM), is developed and applied to improve the simulation capability of two-phase flow with coarse-mesh CFD approach. Interfacial momentum transfer in adiabatic bubbly flow serves as the focus of the present study. Both a mature and a simplified set of interfacial closures are taken as the low-fidelity data. Validation data (including relevant experimental data and validated fine-mesh CFD simulations results) are adopted as high-fidelity data. Qualitative and quantitative analysis are performed in this paper. These reveal that FSM can substantially improve the prediction of the coarse-mesh CFD model, regardless of the choice of interfacial closures, and it provides scalability and consistency across discontinuous flow regimes. It demonstrates that data-driven methods can aid the multiphase flow modeling by exploring the connections between local physical features and simulation errors.Comment: This paper has been submitted to International Journal of Multi-phase Flo

Variable Selection with Exponential Weights and l0l_0-Penalization

In the context of a linear model with a sparse coefficient vector, exponential weights methods have been shown to be achieve oracle inequalities for prediction. We show that such methods also succeed at variable selection and estimation under the necessary identifiability condition on the design matrix, instead of much stronger assumptions required by other methods such as the Lasso or the Dantzig Selector. The same analysis yields consistency results for Bayesian methods and BIC-type variable selection under similar conditions.Comment: 23 pages; 1 figure

Selection of a Model of Cerebral Activity for fMRI Group Data Analysis

This thesis is dedicated to the statistical analysis of multi-sub ject fMRI data, with the purpose of identifying bain structures involved in certain cognitive or sensori-motor tasks, in a reproducible way across sub jects. To overcome certain limitations of standard voxel-based testing methods, as implemented in the Statistical Parametric Mapping (SPM) software, we introduce a Bayesian model selection approach to this problem, meaning that the most probable model of cerebral activity given the data is selected from a pre-defined collection of possible models. Based on a parcellation of the brain volume into functionally homogeneous regions, each model corresponds to a partition of the regions into those involved in the task under study and those inactive. This allows to incorporate prior information, and avoids the dependence of the SPM-like approach on an arbitrary threshold, called the cluster- forming threshold, to define active regions. By controlling a Bayesian risk, our approach balances false positive and false negative risk control. Furthermore, it is based on a generative model that accounts for the spatial uncertainty on the localization of individual effects, due to spatial normalization errors. On both simulated and real fMRI datasets, we show that this new paradigm corrects several biases of the SPM-like approach, which either swells or misses the different active regions, depending on the choice of a cluster-forming threshold.Comment: PhD Thesis, 208 pages, Applied Statistics and Neuroimaging, University of Orsay, Franc

Variable Selection Using Shrinkage Priors

Variable selection has received widespread attention over the last decade as we routinely encounter high-throughput datasets in complex biological and environment research. Most Bayesian variable selection methods are restricted to mixture priors having separate components for characterizing the signal and the noise. However, such priors encounter computational issues in high dimensions. This has motivated continuous shrinkage priors, resembling the two-component priors facilitating computation and interpretability. While such priors are widely used for estimating high-dimensional sparse vectors, selecting a subset of variables remains a daunting task. In this article, we propose a general approach for variable selection with shrinkage priors. The presence of very few tuning parameters makes our method attractive in comparison to adhoc thresholding approaches. The applicability of the approach is not limited to continuous shrinkage priors, but can be used along with any shrinkage prior. Theoretical properties for near-collinear design matrices are investigated and the method is shown to have good performance in a wide range of synthetic data examples