Calibrating Generative Models: The Probabilistic Chomsky-Schützenberger Hierarchy

A probabilistic Chomsky–Schützenberger hierarchy of grammars is introduced and studied, with the aim of understanding the expressive power of generative models. We offer characterizations of the distributions definable at each level of the hierarchy, including probabilistic regular, context-free, (linear) indexed, context-sensitive, and unrestricted grammars, each corresponding to familiar probabilistic machine classes. Special attention is given to distributions on (unary notations for) positive integers. Unlike in the classical case where the "semi-linear" languages all collapse into the regular languages, using analytic tools adapted from the classical setting we show there is no collapse in the probabilistic hierarchy: more distributions become definable at each level. We also address related issues such as closure under probabilistic conditioning

Timed Comparisons of Semi-Markov Processes

Semi-Markov processes are Markovian processes in which the firing time of the transitions is modelled by probabilistic distributions over positive reals interpreted as the probability of firing a transition at a certain moment in time. In this paper we consider the trace-based semantics of semi-Markov processes, and investigate the question of how to compare two semi-Markov processes with respect to their time-dependent behaviour. To this end, we introduce the relation of being "faster than" between processes and study its algorithmic complexity. Through a connection to probabilistic automata we obtain hardness results showing in particular that this relation is undecidable. However, we present an additive approximation algorithm for a time-bounded variant of the faster-than problem over semi-Markov processes with slow residence-time functions, and a coNP algorithm for the exact faster-than problem over unambiguous semi-Markov processes

Empirical Risk Minimization for Probabilistic Grammars: Sample Complexity and Hardness of Learning

Probabilistic grammars are generative statistical models that are useful for compositional and sequential structures. They are used ubiquitously in computational linguistics. We present a framework, reminiscent of structural risk minimization, for empirical risk minimization of probabilistic grammars using the log-loss. We derive sample complexity bounds in this framework that apply both to the supervised setting and the unsupervised setting. By making assumptions about the underlying distribution that are appropriate for natural language scenarios, we are able to derive distribution-dependent sample complexity bounds for probabilistic grammars. We also give simple algorithms for carrying out empirical risk minimization using this framework in both the supervised and unsupervised settings. In the unsupervised case, we show that the problem of minimizing empirical risk is NP-hard. We therefore suggest an approximate algorithm, similar to expectation-maximization, to minimize the empirical risk. Learning from data is central to contemporary computational linguistics. It is in common in such learning to estimate a model in a parametric family using the maximum likelihood principle. This principle applies in the supervised case (i.e., using annotate

Computing Probabilistic Bisimilarity Distances for Probabilistic Automata

The probabilistic bisimilarity distance of Deng et al. has been proposed as a robust quantitative generalization of Segala and Lynch's probabilistic bisimilarity for probabilistic automata. In this paper, we present a characterization of the bisimilarity distance as the solution of a simple stochastic game. The characterization gives us an algorithm to compute the distances by applying Condon's simple policy iteration on these games. The correctness of Condon's approach, however, relies on the assumption that the games are stopping. Our games may be non-stopping in general, yet we are able to prove termination for this extended class of games. Already other algorithms have been proposed in the literature to compute these distances, with complexity in $\textbf{UP} \cap \textbf{coUP}$ and \textbf{PPAD}. Despite the theoretical relevance, these algorithms are inefficient in practice. To the best of our knowledge, our algorithm is the first practical solution. The characterization of the probabilistic bisimilarity distance mentioned above crucially uses a dual presentation of the Hausdorff distance due to M\'emoli. As an additional contribution, in this paper we show that M\'emoli's result can be used also to prove that the bisimilarity distance bounds the difference in the maximal (or minimal) probability of two states to satisfying arbitrary $\omega$-regular properties, expressed, eg., as LTL formulas

Recursive Concurrent Stochastic Games

We study Recursive Concurrent Stochastic Games (RCSGs), extending our recent analysis of recursive simple stochastic games to a concurrent setting where the two players choose moves simultaneously and independently at each state. For multi-exit games, our earlier work already showed undecidability for basic questions like termination, thus we focus on the important case of single-exit RCSGs (1-RCSGs). We first characterize the value of a 1-RCSG termination game as the least fixed point solution of a system of nonlinear minimax functional equations, and use it to show PSPACE decidability for the quantitative termination problem. We then give a strategy improvement technique, which we use to show that player 1 (maximizer) has \epsilon-optimal randomized Stackless & Memoryless (r-SM) strategies for all \epsilon > 0, while player 2 (minimizer) has optimal r-SM strategies. Thus, such games are r-SM-determined. These results mirror and generalize in a strong sense the randomized memoryless determinacy results for finite stochastic games, and extend the classic Hoffman-Karp strategy improvement approach from the finite to an infinite state setting. The proofs in our infinite-state setting are very different however, relying on subtle analytic properties of certain power series that arise from studying 1-RCSGs. We show that our upper bounds, even for qualitative (probability 1) termination, can not be improved, even to NP, without a major breakthrough, by giving two reductions: first a P-time reduction from the long-standing square-root sum problem to the quantitative termination decision problem for finite concurrent stochastic games, and then a P-time reduction from the latter problem to the qualitative termination problem for 1-RCSGs.Comment: 21 pages, 2 figure

PAC Classification based on PAC Estimates of Label Class Distributions

A standard approach in pattern classification is to estimate the distributions of the label classes, and then to apply the Bayes classifier to the estimates of the distributions in order to classify unlabeled examples. As one might expect, the better our estimates of the label class distributions, the better the resulting classifier will be. In this paper we make this observation precise by identifying risk bounds of a classifier in terms of the quality of the estimates of the label class distributions. We show how PAC learnability relates to estimates of the distributions that have a PAC guarantee on their $L_1$ distance from the true distribution, and we bound the increase in negative log likelihood risk in terms of PAC bounds on the KL-divergence. We give an inefficient but general-purpose smoothing method for converting an estimated distribution that is good under the $L_1$ metric into a distribution that is good under the KL-divergence.Comment: 14 page

Lower Bounds on Quantum Query Complexity

Shor's and Grover's famous quantum algorithms for factoring and searching show that quantum computers can solve certain computational problems significantly faster than any classical computer. We discuss here what quantum computers_cannot_ do, and specifically how to prove limits on their computational power. We cover the main known techniques for proving lower bounds, and exemplify and compare the methods.Comment: survey, 23 page

Learning probability distributions generated by finite-state machines

We review methods for inference of probability distributions generated by probabilistic automata and related models for sequence generation. We focus on methods that can be proved to learn in the inference in the limit and PAC formal models. The methods we review are state merging and state splitting methods for probabilistic deterministic automata and the recently developed spectral method for nondeterministic probabilistic automata. In both cases, we derive them from a high-level algorithm described in terms of the Hankel matrix of the distribution to be learned, given as an oracle, and then describe how to adapt that algorithm to account for the error introduced by a finite sample.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft