20,922 research outputs found
Twisted particle filters
We investigate sampling laws for particle algorithms and the influence of
these laws on the efficiency of particle approximations of marginal likelihoods
in hidden Markov models. Among a broad class of candidates we characterize the
essentially unique family of particle system transition kernels which is
optimal with respect to an asymptotic-in-time variance growth rate criterion.
The sampling structure of the algorithm defined by these optimal transitions
turns out to be only subtly different from standard algorithms and yet the
fluctuation properties of the estimates it provides can be dramatically
different. The structure of the optimal transition suggests a new class of
algorithms, which we term "twisted" particle filters and which we validate with
asymptotic analysis of a more traditional nature, in the regime where the
number of particles tends to infinity.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/13-AOS1167 the Annals of
Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical
Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
Selection of proposal distributions for generalized importance sampling estimators
The standard importance sampling (IS) estimator, generally does not work well
in examples involving simultaneous inference on several targets as the
importance weights can take arbitrarily large values making the estimator
highly unstable. In such situations, alternative generalized IS estimators
involving samples from multiple proposal distributions are preferred. Just like
the standard IS, the success of these multiple IS estimators crucially depends
on the choice of the proposal distributions. The selection of these proposal
distributions is the focus of this article. We propose three methods based on
(i) a geometric space filling coverage criterion, (ii) a minimax variance
approach, and (iii) a maximum entropy approach. The first two methods are
applicable to any multi-proposal IS estimator, whereas the third approach is
described in the context of Doss's (2010) two-stage IS estimator. For the first
method we propose a suitable measure of coverage based on the symmetric
Kullback-Leibler divergence, while the second and third approaches use
estimates of asymptotic variances of Doss's (2010) IS estimator and Geyer's
(1994) reverse logistic estimator, respectively. Thus, we provide consistent
spectral variance estimators for these asymptotic variances. The proposed
methods for selecting proposal densities are illustrated using various detailed
examples
A sticky HDP-HMM with application to speaker diarization
We consider the problem of speaker diarization, the problem of segmenting an
audio recording of a meeting into temporal segments corresponding to individual
speakers. The problem is rendered particularly difficult by the fact that we
are not allowed to assume knowledge of the number of people participating in
the meeting. To address this problem, we take a Bayesian nonparametric approach
to speaker diarization that builds on the hierarchical Dirichlet process hidden
Markov model (HDP-HMM) of Teh et al. [J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 101 (2006)
1566--1581]. Although the basic HDP-HMM tends to over-segment the audio
data---creating redundant states and rapidly switching among them---we describe
an augmented HDP-HMM that provides effective control over the switching rate.
We also show that this augmentation makes it possible to treat emission
distributions nonparametrically. To scale the resulting architecture to
realistic diarization problems, we develop a sampling algorithm that employs a
truncated approximation of the Dirichlet process to jointly resample the full
state sequence, greatly improving mixing rates. Working with a benchmark NIST
data set, we show that our Bayesian nonparametric architecture yields
state-of-the-art speaker diarization results.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS395 the Annals of
Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
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