Bayesian quantification of thermodynamic uncertainties in dense gas flows

A Bayesian inference methodology is developed for calibrating complex equations of state used in numerical fluid flow solvers. Precisely, the input parameters of three equations of state commonly used for modeling the thermodynamic behavior of so-called dense gas flows, – i.e. flows of gases characterized by high molecular weights and complex molecules, working in thermodynamic conditions close to the liquid-vapor saturation curve–, are calibrated by means of Bayesian inference from reference aerodynamic data for a dense gas flow over a wing section. Flow thermodynamic conditions are such that the gas thermodynamic behavior strongly deviates from that of a perfect gas. In the aim of assessing the proposed methodology, synthetic calibration data –specifically, wall pressure data– are generated by running the numerical solver with a more complex and accurate thermodynamic model. The statistical model used to build the likelihood function includes a model-form inadequacy term, accounting for the gap between the model output associated to the best-fit parameters, and the rue phenomenon. Results show that, for all of the relatively simple models under investigation, calibrations lead to informative posterior probability density distributions of the input parameters and improve the predictive distribution significantly. Nevertheless, calibrated parameters strongly differ from their expected physical values. The relationship between this behavior and model-form inadequacy is discussed.ANR-11-MONU-008-00

Identification and separation of DNA mixtures using peak area information (Updated version of Statistical Research Paper No. 25)

We introduce a new methodology, based upon probabilistic expert systems, for analysing forensic identification problems involving DNA mixture traces using quantitative peak area information. Peak area is modelled with conditional Gaussian distributions. The expert system can be used for ascertaining whether individuals, whose profiles have been measured, have contributed to the mixture, but also to predict DNA profiles of unknown contributors by separating the mixture into its individual components. The potential of our probabilistic methodology is illustrated on case data examples and compared with alternative approaches. The advantages are that identification and separation issues can be handled in a unified way within a single probabilistic model and the uncertainty associated with the analysis is quantified. Further work, required to bring the methodology to a point where it could be applied to the routine analysis of casework, is discussed

An iterative Bayesian filtering framework for fast and automated calibration of DEM models

The nonlinear, history-dependent macroscopic behavior of a granular material is rooted in the micromechanics between constituent particles and irreversible, plastic deformations reflected by changes in the microstructure. The discrete element method (DEM) can predict the evolution of the microstructure resulting from interparticle interactions. However, micromechanical parameters at contact and particle levels are generally unknown because of the diversity of granular materials with respect to their surfaces, shapes, disorder and anisotropy. The proposed iterative Bayesian filter consists in recursively updating the posterior distribution of model parameters and iterating the process with new samples drawn from a proposal density in highly probable parameter spaces. Over iterations the proposal density is progressively localized near the posterior modes, which allows automated zooming towards optimal solutions. The Dirichlet process Gaussian mixture is trained with sparse and high dimensional data from the previous iteration to update the proposal density. As an example, the probability distribution of the micromechanical parameters is estimated, conditioning on the experimentally measured stress–strain behavior of a granular assembly. Four micromechanical parameters, i.e., contact-level Young’s modulus, interparticle friction, rolling stiffness and rolling friction, are chosen as strongly relevant for the macroscopic behavior. The a priori particle configuration is obtained from 3D X-ray computed tomography images. The a posteriori expectation of each micromechanical parameter converges within four iterations, leading to an excellent agreement between the experimental data and the numerical predictions. As new result, the proposed framework provides a deeper understanding of the correlations among micromechanical parameters and between the micro- and macro-parameters/quantities of interest, including their uncertainties. Therefore, the iterative Bayesian filtering framework has a great potential for quantifying parameter uncertainties and their propagation across various scales in granular materials

Bayesian model calibration for diblock copolymer thin film self-assembly using power spectrum of microscopy data

Identifying parameters of computational models from experimental data, or model calibration, is fundamental for assessing and improving the predictability and reliability of computer simulations. In this work, we propose a method for Bayesian calibration of models that predict morphological patterns of diblock copolymer (Di-BCP) thin film self-assembly while accounting for various sources of uncertainties in pattern formation and data acquisition. This method extracts the azimuthally-averaged power spectrum (AAPS) of the top-down microscopy characterization of Di-BCP thin film patterns as summary statistics for Bayesian inference of model parameters via the pseudo-marginal method. We derive the analytical and approximate form of a conditional likelihood for the AAPS of image data. We demonstrate that AAPS-based image data reduction retains the mutual information, particularly on important length scales, between image data and model parameters while being relatively agnostic to the aleatoric uncertainties associated with the random long-range disorder of Di-BCP patterns. Additionally, we propose a phase-informed prior distribution for Bayesian model calibration. Furthermore, reducing image data to AAPS enables us to efficiently build surrogate models to accelerate the proposed Bayesian model calibration procedure. We present the formulation and training of two multi-layer perceptrons for approximating the parameter-to-spectrum map, which enables fast integrated likelihood evaluations. We validate the proposed Bayesian model calibration method through numerical examples, for which the neural network surrogate delivers a fivefold reduction of the number of model simulations performed for a single calibration task