Probabilities and health risks: a qualitative approach

Health risks, defined in terms of the probability that an individual will suffer a particular type of adverse health event within a given time period, can be understood as referencing either natural entities or complex patterns of belief which incorporate the observer's values and knowledge, the position adopted in the present paper. The subjectivity inherent in judgements about adversity and time frames can be easily recognised, but social scientists have tended to accept uncritically the objectivity of probability. Most commonly in health risk analysis, the term probability refers to rates established by induction, and so requires the definition of a numerator and denominator. Depending upon their specification, many probabilities may be reasonably postulated for the same event, and individuals may change their risks by deciding to seek or avoid information. These apparent absurdities can be understood if probability is conceptualised as the projection of expectation onto the external world. Probabilities based on induction from observed frequencies provide glimpses of the future at the price of acceptance of the simplifying heuristic that statistics derived from aggregate groups can be validly attributed to individuals within them. The paper illustrates four implications of this conceptualisation of probability with qualitative data from a variety of sources, particularly a study of genetic counselling for pregnant women in a U.K. hospital. Firstly, the official selection of a specific probability heuristic reflects organisational constraints and values as well as predictive optimisation. Secondly, professionals and service users must work to maintain the facticity of an established heuristic in the face of alternatives. Thirdly, individuals, both lay and professional, manage probabilistic information in ways which support their strategic objectives. Fourthly, predictively sub-optimum schema, for example the idea of AIDS as a gay plague, may be selected because they match prevailing social value systems

Towards a Descriptive Model of Agent Strategy Search

It is argued that due to the complexity of most economic phenomena, the chances of deriving correct models from a priori principles are small. Instead are more descriptive approach to modelling should be pursued. Agent-based modelling is characterised as a step in this direction. However many agent-based models use off-the-shelf algorithms from computer science without regard to their descriptive accuracy. This paper attempts an agent model that describes the behaviour of subjects reported by Joep Sonnemans as accurately as possible. It takes a structure that is compatible with current thinking cognitive science and explores the nature of the agent processes that then match the behaviour of the subjects. This suggests further modelling improvements and experiments

Social preferences: from the experimental lab to economic theory

We present a wide collection of experiments which show how human behavior deviates substantially with respect to the predictions derived from standard homo economicus assumptions. Then we review the theoretical literature that this evidence has stimulated. In particular some models are found to be consistent with evidence from a large set of games. As fundamental differences exist among these proposals, new experiments were devised to contrast their effectiveness in predicting behavior. We argue that inequality aversion models are to be preferred to intention based models because the additional predictive power the latter may have comes at a very high cost of complexity. We also find that equality considerations are more relevant than efficiency motives in most economically relevant settings. Results are not conclusive and this gives scope to further research over these issues.Prisoner's dilemma; public good games; social preference models

You are what you play?: a quantitative study into game design preferences across gender and their interaction with gaming habits

Gaming is rapidly gaining popularity as a pastime among women. One explanation for this could be the industry targeting female gamers through specific ‘girl game’ releases. This could imply that there are a priori differences in game design preferences between female and male gamers. The purpose of the present study is to explore these differences to see whether there is a mediating effect of previous experience with certain game genres on subsequent design preferences of male and female gamers. More particularly, we distinguish between ‘core’ genre players (CP) and ‘non-core’ genre players (NCP). By means of a 2*2 ANOVA design using an online survey, we examine the main effects of gender, core genre players (CP/NCP) and the interaction effects between both independent variables. The results show that game preferences of male CP, female CP and male NCP are generally in line with one another whereas those of female NCP differ significantly