Mean-Dispersion Preferences and Constant Absolute Uncertainty Aversion

We axiomatize, in an Anscombe-Aumann framework, the class of preferences that admit a representation of the form V(f) = mu - rho(d), where mu is the mean utility of the act f with respect to a given probability, d is the vector of state-by-state utility deviations from the mean, and rho(d) is a measure of (aversion to) dispersion that corresponds to an uncertainty premium. The key feature of these mean-dispersion preferences is that they exhibit constant absolute uncertainty aversion. This class includes many well-known models of preferences from the literature on ambiguity. We show what properties of the dispersion function rho(dot) correspond to known models, to probabilistic sophistication, and to some new notions of uncertainty aversion.Ambiguity aversion, Translation invariance, Dispersion, Uncertainty, Probabilistic sophistication

Noisy Business Cycles

This paper investigates a real-business-cycle economy that features dispersed information about the underlying aggregate productivity shocks, taste shocks, and—potentially—shocks to monopoly power. We show how the dispersion of information can (i) contribute to significant inertia in the response of macroeconomic outcomes to such shocks; (ii) induce a negative shortrun response of employment to productivity shocks; (iii) imply that productivity shocks explain only a small fraction of high-frequency fluctuations; (iv) contribute to significant noise in the business cycle; (v) formalize a certain type of demand shocks within an RBC economy; and (vi) generate cyclical variation in observed Solow residuals and labor wedges. Importantly, none of these properties requires significant uncertainty about the underlying fundamentals: they rest on the heterogeneity of information and the strength of trade linkages in the economy, not the level of uncertainty. Finally, none of these properties are symptoms of inefficiency: apart from undoing monopoly distortions or providing the agents with more information, no policy intervention can improve upon the equilibrium allocations

Study of aerodynamic technology for VSTOL fighter attack aircraft

Vertical short takeoff aircraft capability, supersonic dash capability, and transonic agility were investigated for the development of Fighter/attack aircraft to be accommodated on ships smaller than present aircraft carriers. Topics covered include: (1) description of viable V/STOL fighter/attack configuration (a high wing, close-coupled canard, twin-engine, control configured aircraft) which meets or exceeds specified levels of vehicle performance; (2) estimates of vehicle aerodynamic characteristics and the methodology utilized to generate them; (3) description of propulsion system characteristics and vehicle mass properties; (4) identification of areas of aerodynamic uncertainty; and (5) a test program to investigate the areas of aerodynamic uncertainty in the conventional flight mode

Monte Carlo Simulations of Metal-Poor Star Clusters

Metal-poor globular clusters (GCs) can provide a probe of the earliest epoch of star formation in the Universe, being the oldest stellar systems observable. In addition, young and intermediate-age low-metallicity GCs are present in external galaxies. Nevertheless, inferring their evolutionary status by using integrated properties may suffer from large \emph{intrinsic} uncertainty caused by the discrete nature of stars in stellar systems, especially in the case of faint objects. In this paper, we evaluate the \emph{intrinsic} uncertainty (due to statistical effects) affecting the integrated colours and mass--to--light ratios as a function of the cluster integrated visual magnitude ($M_V^{tot}$), which represents a quantity directly measured. Our approach is based on Monte Carlo techniques for randomly generating stars distributed according to the cluster's mass function. Integrated colours and mass--to--light ratios in different photometric bands are checked to be in good agreement with the observational values of low-metallicity Galactic clusters. We present integrated colours and mass--to--light ratios as a function of age for different assumptions on the cluster total $V$ magnitude. We find that the emph{intrinsic} uncertainty cannot be neglected. In particular, in models with $M_V^{tot}=-4$ the broad-band colours show an \emph{intrinsic} uncertainty so high as to prevent precise age evaluation of the cluster. Finally, the present predictions are compared with recent results available in the literature, showing in some cases non-negligible differences.Comment: 18 pages, 12 figures, A&A accepte

On the squeezed states for n observables

Three basic properties (eigenstate, orbit and intelligence) of the canonical squeezed states (SS) are extended to the case of arbitrary n observables. The SS for n observables X_i can be constructed as eigenstates of their linear complex combinations or as states which minimize the Robertson uncertainty relation. When X_i close a Lie algebra L the generalized SS could also be introduced as orbit of Aut(L^C). It is shown that for the nilpotent algebra h_N the three generalizations are equivalent. For the simple su(1,1) the family of eigenstates of uK_- + vK_+ (K_\pm being lowering and raising operators) is a family of ideal K_1-K_2 SS, but it cannot be represented as an Aut(su^C(1,1)) orbit although the SU(1,1) group related coherent states (CS) with symmetry are contained in it. Eigenstates |z,u,v,w;k> of general combination uK_- + vK_+ + wK_3 of the three generators K_j of SU(1,1) in the representations with Bargman index k = 1/2,1, ..., and k = 1/4,3/4 are constructed and discussed in greater detail. These are ideal SS for K_{1,2,3}. In the case of the one mode realization of su(1,1) the nonclassical properties (sub-Poissonian statistics, quadrature squeezing) of the generalized even CS |z,u,v;+> are demonstrated. The states |z,u,v,w;k=1/4,3/4> can exhibit strong both linear and quadratic squeezing.Comment: 25 pages, LaTex, 4 .pic and .ps figures. Improvements in text, discussion on generation scheme added. To appear in Phys. Script

Evaluation and management implications of uncertainty in a multispecies size-structured model of population and community responses to fishing

1. Implementation of an ecosystem approach to fisheries requires advice on trade-offs among fished species and between fisheries yields and biodiversity or food web properties. However, the lack of explicit representation, analysis and consideration of uncertainty in most multispecies models has limited their application in analyses that could support management advice. 2. We assessed the consequences of parameter uncertainty by developing 78 125 multispecies size-structured fish community models, with all combinations of parameters drawn from ranges that spanned parameter values estimated from data and literature. This unfiltered ensemble was reduced to 188 plausible models, the filtered ensemble (FE), by screening outputs against fish abundance data and ecological principles such as requiring species' persistence. 3. Effects of parameter uncertainty on estimates of single-species management reference points for fishing mortality (FMSY, fishing mortality rate providing MSY, the maximum sustainable yield) and biomass (BMSY, biomass at MSY) were evaluated by calculating probability distributions of estimated reference points with the FE. There was a 50% probability that multispecies FMSY could be estimated to within ±25% of its actual value, and a 50% probability that BMSY could be estimated to within ±40% of its actual value. 4. Signal-to-noise ratio was assessed for four community indicators when mortality rates were reduced from current rates to FMSY. The slope of the community size spectrum showed the greatest signal-to-noise ratio, indicating that it would be the most responsive indicator to the change in fishing mortality F. Further, the power of an ongoing international monitoring survey to detect predicted responses of size spectrum slope was higher than for other size-based metrics. 5. Synthesis and applications: Application of the ensemble model approach allows explicit representation of parameter uncertainty and supports advice and management by (i) providing uncertainty intervals for management reference points, (ii) estimating working values of reference points that achieve a defined reduction in risk of not breaching the true reference point, (iii) estimating the responsiveness of population, community, food web and biodiversity indicators to changes in F, (iv) assessing the performance of indicators and monitoring programmes and (v) identifying priorities for data collection and changes to model structure to reduce uncertainty

The check of QCD based on the tau-decay data analysis in the complex q^2-plane

The thorough analysis of the ALEPH data on hadronic tau-decay is performed in the framework of QCD. The perturbative calculations are performed in 3 and 4-loop approximations. The terms of the operator product expansion (OPE) are accounted up to dimension D=8. The value of the QCD coupling constant alpha_s(m_tau^2)=0.355 pm 0.025 was found from hadronic branching ratio R_tau. The V+A and V spectral function are analyzed using analytical properties of polarization operators in the whole complex q^2-plane. Borel sum rules in the complex q^2 plane along the rays, starting from the origin, are used. It was demonstrated that QCD with OPE terms is in agreement with the data for the coupling constant close to the lower error edge alpha_s(m_tau^2)=0.330. The restriction on the value of the gluonic condensate was found =0.006 pm 0.012 GeV^2. The analytical perturbative QCD was compared with the data. It is demonstrated to be in strong contradiction with experiment. The restrictions on the renormalon contribution were found. The instanton contributions to the polarization operator are analyzed in various sum rules. In Borel transformation they appear to be small, but not in spectral moments sum rules.Comment: 24 pages; 1 latex + 13 figure files. V2: misprints are corrected, uncertainty in alpha_s is explained in more transparent way, acknowledgement is adde