On optimal bidding in sequential procurement auctions

a b s t r a c t We investigate the problem of optimal bidding for a firm that in each period procures items to meet a random demand by participating in a finite sequence of auctions. We develop a new model for a firm where its item valuation derives from the sale of the acquired items via their demand distribution, sale price, acquisition cost, salvage value and lost sales. We establish monotonicity properties for the value function and the optimal dynamic bid strategy and we present computations

The collusive drawbacks of sequential auctions

Sequential first-price auctions for multiple objects are very common in procurement, electricity, tobacco, timber, and oil lease markets. In this paper we identify two ways in which a sequential format may facilitate collusion among bidders relative to a simultaneous one. The first effect relates to the cartel’s ability to identify and punish defectors within the sequence, thus lowering the gains from a deviation with respect to a simultaneous format. The second effect concerns the cartel’s ability to allocate the bidder with the highest incentive to deviate (the ‘maverick’) to the last object of the sequence, thus increasing the viability of the collusive agreement. We then analyze how the seller may counteract this two effects by limiting the amount of information disclosed to bidders across rounds, and find that partial disclosure policies have little impact on the sustainability of collusion

Competition Between Auctions

Even though auctions are capturing an increasing share of commerce, they are typically treated in the theoretical economics literature as isolated. That is, an auction is typically treated as a single seller facing multiple buyers or as a single buyer facing multiple sellers. In this paper, we review the state of the art of competition between auctions. We consider three different types of competition: competition between auctions, competition between formats, and competition between auctioneers vying for auction traffic. We highlight the newest experimental, statistical and analytical methods in the analysis of competition between auctions.auctions, bidding, competition, auction formats, auction houses

Sequential auction and auction design

Often an auction designer has the option of selling, or purchasing, those lots available in one auction or a sequence of auctions. In addition, bidder opportunities will not be static, in part due to arrival of information, but also because bidders can face deadlines for making decisions. This paper examines the optimal decision about how to divide what is available over time.sequential auctions

Auctions for Split-Award Contracts

The buyer of a homogeneous input employs split-award contracting to divide his input requirements into two contracts that are awarded to different suppliers. The buyer uses a sequential second-price auction to award a larger primary contract and a smaller secondary contract. With a fixed number of suppliers participating in the auctions, we find that the buyer pays a higher expected price than with a sole-source auction. The premium paid to the winner of the secondary contract must also be paid to the winner of the primary contract as an opportunity cost of not winning the secondary contract. With fixed costs of participating in the auction, we identify the conditions under which a secondary contract can increase the number of suppliers and lower the expected price paid by the buyer. An optimal secondary contract can internalize the cost reductions from the new industry capacity and extract the rents of the suppliers. An optimal secondary contract can be particularly beneficial when the number of suppliers is limited by high fixed costs.

Sequential versus Simultaneous Auctioning of Procurement Contracts with Common Value and Private Value Components

We study procurement auctions held in sequential and simultaneous formats. For thelatter format, we find less bid participation and more aggressive bidding for projects withstrong common value components and more competition for projects having strong privatevalue components.microeconomics ;

Learning optimization models in the presence of unknown relations

In a sequential auction with multiple bidding agents, it is highly challenging to determine the ordering of the items to sell in order to maximize the revenue due to the fact that the autonomy and private information of the agents heavily influence the outcome of the auction. The main contribution of this paper is two-fold. First, we demonstrate how to apply machine learning techniques to solve the optimal ordering problem in sequential auctions. We learn regression models from historical auctions, which are subsequently used to predict the expected value of orderings for new auctions. Given the learned models, we propose two types of optimization methods: a black-box best-first search approach, and a novel white-box approach that maps learned models to integer linear programs (ILP) which can then be solved by any ILP-solver. Although the studied auction design problem is hard, our proposed optimization methods obtain good orderings with high revenues. Our second main contribution is the insight that the internal structure of regression models can be efficiently evaluated inside an ILP solver for optimization purposes. To this end, we provide efficient encodings of regression trees and linear regression models as ILP constraints. This new way of using learned models for optimization is promising. As the experimental results show, it significantly outperforms the black-box best-first search in nearly all settings.Comment: 37 pages. Working pape

Sequential Auctions with Synergies: The Paradox of Positive Synergies.

In multi-unit (procurement) auctions winning multiple contracts can lead to cost advantages due to synergies. As an example one can think of procurement auctions where construction firms have returns to scale for investments in specialized equipments and workers that are required in large-scale projects. In this paper we analyze the effects of the presence of such synergies on bidding behavior and thus auction outcomes in general. We find that the presence of synergies on the bidders’ side induces more competitive bidding and therefore leads to lower expected payoffs for bidders and higher expected revenues for sellers. Thus, instead of benefiting from the presence of synergies, bidders suffer from it. Moreover it is found that serious bankruptcy problems can occur. In particular the negative welfare consequences caused by these bankruptcy problems are of major importance for auction design when synergies are present. Finally, the presence of synergies leads to a decreasing price trend and can therefore explain the declining price anomaly.industrial organization ;

Contracting for Infrastructure Projects as Credence Goods

Large infrastructure projects are a major responsibility of government, who usually lacks expertise to fully specify the demanded projects. Contractors, typically experts on such projects, advise of the needed design in their bids. Producing the right design is nevertheless costly. We model the contracting for such infrastructure projects taking into account this credence goods feature and examine the performance of commonly used contracting methods. We show that when building costs are public information, multistage competitive bidding involving shortlisting of two contractors and contingent compensation of both contractors on design efforts outperforms sequential search and the traditional Design-and-Build approach. While the latter leads to minimum design effort, sequential search suffers from a commitment problem. If building costs are the private information of the contractors and are revealed to them after design cost is sunk, competitive bidding may involve sampling more than two contractors. The commitment problem under sequential search may be overcome by the procurer's incentive to search for low building cost if the design cost is sufficiently low. If this is the case, sequential search may outperform competitive bidding.Credence Goods, Design-Build, Competitive Bidding, Sequential Search, Infrastructure Projects