4,340 research outputs found
Predictive PAC Learning and Process Decompositions
We informally call a stochastic process learnable if it admits a
generalization error approaching zero in probability for any concept class with
finite VC-dimension (IID processes are the simplest example). A mixture of
learnable processes need not be learnable itself, and certainly its
generalization error need not decay at the same rate. In this paper, we argue
that it is natural in predictive PAC to condition not on the past observations
but on the mixture component of the sample path. This definition not only
matches what a realistic learner might demand, but also allows us to sidestep
several otherwise grave problems in learning from dependent data. In
particular, we give a novel PAC generalization bound for mixtures of learnable
processes with a generalization error that is not worse than that of each
mixture component. We also provide a characterization of mixtures of absolutely
regular (-mixing) processes, of independent probability-theoretic
interest.Comment: 9 pages, accepted in NIPS 201
Exchangeable Variable Models
A sequence of random variables is exchangeable if its joint distribution is
invariant under variable permutations. We introduce exchangeable variable
models (EVMs) as a novel class of probabilistic models whose basic building
blocks are partially exchangeable sequences, a generalization of exchangeable
sequences. We prove that a family of tractable EVMs is optimal under zero-one
loss for a large class of functions, including parity and threshold functions,
and strictly subsumes existing tractable independence-based model families.
Extensive experiments show that EVMs outperform state of the art classifiers
such as SVMs and probabilistic models which are solely based on independence
assumptions.Comment: ICML 201
Berry Esseen bounds for combinatorial central limit theorems and pattern occurrences, using zero and size biasing
Berry Esseen type bounds to the normal, based on zero- and size-bias
couplings, are derived using Stein's method. The zero biasing bounds are
illustrated with an application to combinatorial central limit theorems where
the random permutation has either the uniform distribution or one which is
constant over permutations with the same cycle type and having no fixed points.
The size biasing bounds are applied to the occurrences of fixed relatively
ordered sub-sequences (such as rising sequences) in a random permutation, and
to the occurrences of patterns, extreme values, and subgraphs on finite graphs.Comment: 23 page
Limit theorems for a class of identically distributed random variables
A new type of stochastic dependence for a sequence of random variables is
introduced and studied. Precisely, (X_n)_{n\geq 1} is said to be conditionally
identically distributed (c.i.d.), with respect to a filtration (G_n)_{n\geq 0},
if it is adapted to (G_n)_{n\geq 0} and, for each n\geq 0, (X_k)_{k>n} is
identically distributed given the past G_n. In case G_0={\varnothing,\Omega}
and G_n=\sigma(X_1,...,X_n), a result of Kallenberg implies that (X_n)_{n\geq
1} is exchangeable if and only if it is stationary and c.i.d. After giving some
natural examples of nonexchangeable c.i.d. sequences, it is shown that
(X_n)_{n\geq 1} is exchangeable if and only if (X_{\tau(n)})_{n\geq 1} is
c.i.d. for any finite permutation \tau of {1,2,...}, and that the distribution
of a c.i.d. sequence agrees with an exchangeable law on a certain
sub-\sigma-field. Moreover, (1/n)\sum_{k=1}^nX_k converges a.s. and in L^1
whenever (X_n)_{n\geq 1} is (real-valued) c.i.d. and E[|
X_1| ]<\infty. As to the CLT, three types of random centering are considered.
One such centering, significant in Bayesian prediction and discrete time
filtering, is E[X_{n+1}| G_n]. For each centering, convergence in distribution
of the corresponding empirical process is analyzed under uniform distance.Comment: Published by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics
(http://www.imstat.org) in the Annals of Probability
(http://www.imstat.org/aop/) at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/00911790400000067
On q-Gaussians and Exchangeability
The q-Gaussians are discussed from the point of view of variance mixtures of
normals and exchangeability. For each q< 3, there is a q-Gaussian distribution
that maximizes the Tsallis entropy under suitable constraints. This paper shows
that q-Gaussian random variables can be represented as variance mixtures of
normals. These variance mixtures of normals are the attractors in central limit
theorems for sequences of exchangeable random variables; thereby, providing a
possible model that has been extensively studied in probability theory. The
formulation provided has the additional advantage of yielding process versions
which are naturally q-Brownian motions. Explicit mixing distributions for
q-Gaussians should facilitate applications to areas such as option pricing. The
model might provide insight into the study of superstatistics.Comment: 14 page
Sharp Total Variation Bounds for Finitely Exchangeable Arrays
In this article we demonstrate the relationship between finitely exchangeable
arrays and finitely exchangeable sequences. We then derive sharp bounds on the
total variation distance between distributions of finitely and infinitely
exchangeable arrays
Anomalous scaling due to correlations: Limit theorems and self-similar processes
We derive theorems which outline explicit mechanisms by which anomalous
scaling for the probability density function of the sum of many correlated
random variables asymptotically prevails. The results characterize general
anomalous scaling forms, justify their universal character, and specify
universality domains in the spaces of joint probability density functions of
the summand variables. These density functions are assumed to be invariant
under arbitrary permutations of their arguments. Examples from the theory of
critical phenomena are discussed. The novel notion of stability implied by the
limit theorems also allows us to define sequences of random variables whose sum
satisfies anomalous scaling for any finite number of summands. If regarded as
developing in time, the stochastic processes described by these variables are
non-Markovian generalizations of Gaussian processes with uncorrelated
increments, and provide, e.g., explicit realizations of a recently proposed
model of index evolution in finance.Comment: Through text revision. 15 pages, 3 figure
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