Assessment of Sustainable Development

The objective of this paper is to introduce fuzzy set theory and develop fuzzy mathematical models to assess sustainable development based on context-dependent economic, ecological, and societal sustainability indicators. Membership functions are at the core of fuzzy models, and define the degree to which indicators contribute to development. Although a decision-making process regarding sustainable development is subjective, fuzzy set theory links human expectations about development, expressed in linguistic propositions, to numerical data, expressed in measurements of sustainability indicators. In the future, practical implementation of such models will be based on elicitation of expert knowledge to construct a membership function. The fuzzy models developed in this paper provide a novel approach to support decisions regarding sustainable development.agriculture;assessment;fuzzy set theory;sustainable development

Eliciting Expert Knowledge for Fuzzy Evaluation of Agricultural Production Systems

Public concern nowadays is an important frame of reference for thedevelopment of agricultural production systems. The development ofsuch systems, therefore, involves both society level and productionsystem level. Following Zadeh's principle of incompatibility,information obtained at production system level is interpreted atsociety level in linguistic terms. Fuzzy models promise to be avaluable tool as they link measurable information to linguisticinterpretation using membership functions. The objective of this paperis to outline a procedure which deals with criticism regarding theinherent subjectivity in the construction of membership functions whenusing expert knowledge. The procedure guarantees the selection ofappropriate expert knowledge, and provides a guideline supporting theselection of methods to elicit expert knowledge and constructmembership functions. Also on the basis of the results in anillustrative example, it is concluded that the procedure outlined inthis paper suitably deals with criticism regarding membershipfunctions and, therefore, enables a practical implementation of fuzzyevaluation of agricultural production systems. Current researchimplements the procedure to build a fuzzy model which evaluates eggproduction systems in relation to public concern about the welfare oflaying hens.evaluation;subjectivity;expert knowledge;fuzzy models;knowledge elicitation

Assessment of Sustainable Development

The objective of this paper is to introduce fuzzy set theory and develop fuzzy mathematical models to assess sustainable development based on context-dependent economic, ecological, and societal sustainability indicators. Membership functions are at the core of fuzzy models, and define the degree to which indicators contribute to development. Although a decision-making process regarding sustainable development is subjective, fuzzy set theory links human expectations about development, expressed in linguistic propositions, to numerical data, expressed in measurements of sustainability indicators. In the future, practical implementation of such models will be based on elicitation of expert knowledge to construct a membership function. The fuzzy models developed in this paper provide a novel approach to support decisions regarding sustainable development

Incentive Compatible Active Learning

We consider active learning under incentive compatibility constraints. The main application of our results is to economic experiments, in which a learner seeks to infer the parameters of a subject's preferences: for example their attitudes towards risk, or their beliefs over uncertain events. By cleverly adapting the experimental design, one can save on the time spent by subjects in the laboratory, or maximize the information obtained from each subject in a given laboratory session; but the resulting adaptive design raises complications due to incentive compatibility. A subject in the lab may answer questions strategically, and not truthfully, so as to steer subsequent questions in a profitable direction. We analyze two standard economic problems: inference of preferences over risk from multiple price lists, and belief elicitation in experiments on choice over uncertainty. In the first setting, we tune a simple and fast learning algorithm to retain certain incentive compatibility properties. In the second setting, we provide an incentive compatible learning algorithm based on scoring rules with query complexity that differs from obvious methods of achieving fast learning rates only by subpolynomial factors. Thus, for these areas of application, incentive compatibility may be achieved without paying a large sample complexity price.Comment: 22 page

How group identification distorts beliefs

This paper investigates how group identification distorts people’s beliefs about the ability of their peers in social groups. We find that experimentally manipulated identification with a randomly composed group leads to overconfident beliefs about fellow group members’ performance on an intelligence test. This result cannot be explained by individual overconfidence, i.e., participants overconfident in their own skill believing that their group performed better because of them, as this was ruled out by experimental design. Moreover, we find that participants with stronger group identification put more weight on positive signals about their group when updating their beliefs. These in-group biases in beliefs can have important economic consequences when group membership is used to make inference about an individual’s characteristics as, for instance, in hiring decisions

Using XML and XSLT for flexible elicitation of mental-health risk knowledge

Current tools for assessing risks associated with mental-health problems require assessors to make high-level judgements based on clinical experience. This paper describes how new technologies can enhance qualitative research methods to identify lower-level cues underlying these judgements, which can be collected by people without a specialist mental-health background. Methods and evolving results: Content analysis of interviews with 46 multidisciplinary mental-health experts exposed the cues and their interrelationships, which were represented by a mind map using software that stores maps as XML. All 46 mind maps were integrated into a single XML knowledge structure and analysed by a Lisp program to generate quantitative information about the numbers of experts associated with each part of it. The knowledge was refined by the experts, using software developed in Flash to record their collective views within the XML itself. These views specified how the XML should be transformed by XSLT, a technology for rendering XML, which resulted in a validated hierarchical knowledge structure associating patient cues with risks. Conclusions: Changing knowledge elicitation requirements were accommodated by flexible transformations of XML data using XSLT, which also facilitated generation of multiple data-gathering tools suiting different assessment circumstances and levels of mental-health knowledge

Quantification of temporal fault trees based on fuzzy set theory

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014. Fault tree analysis (FTA) has been modified in different ways to make it capable of performing quantitative and qualitative safety analysis with temporal gates, thereby overcoming its limitation in capturing sequential failure behaviour. However, for many systems, it is often very difficult to have exact failure rates of components due to increased complexity of systems, scarcity of necessary statistical data etc. To overcome this problem, this paper presents a methodology based on fuzzy set theory to quantify temporal fault trees. This makes the imprecision in available failure data more explicit and helps to obtain a range of most probable values for the top event probability

Benefit Transfer in the Field: Measuring the Benefits of Heterogeneous Wetlands using Contingent Valuation and Ecological Field Appraisals

Wetlands have functional values that may extend beyond traditional real estate values. This paper uses contingent valuation and ecological field assessments to place heterogeneous values on heterogeneous wetlands. Wetland functions evaluated are water quality, habitat, recreation, storing floodwaters and erosion abatement. The model used incorporates the public value of wetland functions and adds that value to the common local appraisal cost. We use a “percentage willingness-to-pay” value elicitation question in which respondents are asked about the percentage amount that the state government should pay over and above market value to purchase and preserve a wetland function. These values are then mapped into an ecological matrix to value the wetland as a whole. We show how these values can be applied in the field. Key Words: wetlands, appraisal, evaluation, mitigation, contingent valuation methodLength: