Cycle-based Cluster Variational Method for Direct and Inverse Inference

We elaborate on the idea that loop corrections to belief propagation could be dealt with in a systematic way on pairwise Markov random fields, by using the elements of a cycle basis to define region in a generalized belief propagation setting. The region graph is specified in such a way as to avoid dual loops as much as possible, by discarding redundant Lagrange multipliers, in order to facilitate the convergence, while avoiding instabilities associated to minimal factor graph construction. We end up with a two-level algorithm, where a belief propagation algorithm is run alternatively at the level of each cycle and at the inter-region level. The inverse problem of finding the couplings of a Markov random field from empirical covariances can be addressed region wise. It turns out that this can be done efficiently in particular in the Ising context, where fixed point equations can be derived along with a one-parameter log likelihood function to minimize. Numerical experiments confirm the effectiveness of these considerations both for the direct and inverse MRF inference.Comment: 47 pages, 16 figure

Learning to Reason: Leveraging Neural Networks for Approximate DNF Counting

Weighted model counting (WMC) has emerged as a prevalent approach for probabilistic inference. In its most general form, WMC is #P-hard. Weighted DNF counting (weighted #DNF) is a special case, where approximations with probabilistic guarantees are obtained in O(nm), where n denotes the number of variables, and m the number of clauses of the input DNF, but this is not scalable in practice. In this paper, we propose a neural model counting approach for weighted #DNF that combines approximate model counting with deep learning, and accurately approximates model counts in linear time when width is bounded. We conduct experiments to validate our method, and show that our model learns and generalizes very well to large-scale #DNF instances.Comment: To appear in Proceedings of the Thirty-Fourth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-20). Code and data available at: https://github.com/ralphabb/NeuralDNF

Counting and Sampling from Markov Equivalent DAGs Using Clique Trees

A directed acyclic graph (DAG) is the most common graphical model for representing causal relationships among a set of variables. When restricted to using only observational data, the structure of the ground truth DAG is identifiable only up to Markov equivalence, based on conditional independence relations among the variables. Therefore, the number of DAGs equivalent to the ground truth DAG is an indicator of the causal complexity of the underlying structure--roughly speaking, it shows how many interventions or how much additional information is further needed to recover the underlying DAG. In this paper, we propose a new technique for counting the number of DAGs in a Markov equivalence class. Our approach is based on the clique tree representation of chordal graphs. We show that in the case of bounded degree graphs, the proposed algorithm is polynomial time. We further demonstrate that this technique can be utilized for uniform sampling from a Markov equivalence class, which provides a stochastic way to enumerate DAGs in the equivalence class and may be needed for finding the best DAG or for causal inference given the equivalence class as input. We also extend our counting and sampling method to the case where prior knowledge about the underlying DAG is available, and present applications of this extension in causal experiment design and estimating the causal effect of joint interventions

Streaming Graph Challenge: Stochastic Block Partition

An important objective for analyzing real-world graphs is to achieve scalable performance on large, streaming graphs. A challenging and relevant example is the graph partition problem. As a combinatorial problem, graph partition is NP-hard, but existing relaxation methods provide reasonable approximate solutions that can be scaled for large graphs. Competitive benchmarks and challenges have proven to be an effective means to advance state-of-the-art performance and foster community collaboration. This paper describes a graph partition challenge with a baseline partition algorithm of sub-quadratic complexity. The algorithm employs rigorous Bayesian inferential methods based on a statistical model that captures characteristics of the real-world graphs. This strong foundation enables the algorithm to address limitations of well-known graph partition approaches such as modularity maximization. This paper describes various aspects of the challenge including: (1) the data sets and streaming graph generator, (2) the baseline partition algorithm with pseudocode, (3) an argument for the correctness of parallelizing the Bayesian inference, (4) different parallel computation strategies such as node-based parallelism and matrix-based parallelism, (5) evaluation metrics for partition correctness and computational requirements, (6) preliminary timing of a Python-based demonstration code and the open source C++ code, and (7) considerations for partitioning the graph in streaming fashion. Data sets and source code for the algorithm as well as metrics, with detailed documentation are available at GraphChallenge.org.Comment: To be published in 2017 IEEE High Performance Extreme Computing Conference (HPEC