275 research outputs found

    Valuing future cash flows with non separable discount factors and non additive subjective measures: Conditional Choquet Capacities on Time and on Uncertainty

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    We consider future cash flows that are contingent both on dates in time and on uncertain states. The decision maker (DM) values the cash flows according to its decision criterion: Here the payoffs’ expectation with respect to a capacity measure. The subjective measure grasps the DM’s behaviour in front of the future, in the spirit of de Finetti’s (1930) and of Yaari’s (1987) Dual Theory in the case of risk. Decomposition of the criterion into two criteria that represent the DM’s preferences on uncertain payoffs and time contingent payoffs are derived from Ghirardato’s (1997) results. Conditional Choquet integrals are defined by dynamic consistency requirements and conditional capacities are derived, under some conditions on information. In contrast with other models referring to dynamic consistency, ours doesn’t collapse into a linear one because it violates a weak version of consequentialism.

    Diversification Preferences in the Theory of Choice

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    Diversification represents the idea of choosing variety over uniformity. Within the theory of choice, desirability of diversification is axiomatized as preference for a convex combination of choices that are equivalently ranked. This corresponds to the notion of risk aversion when one assumes the von-Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility model, but the equivalence fails to hold in other models. This paper studies axiomatizations of the concept of diversification and their relationship to the related notions of risk aversion and convex preferences within different choice theoretic models. Implications of these notions on portfolio choice are discussed. We cover model-independent diversification preferences, preferences within models of choice under risk, including expected utility theory and the more general rank-dependent expected utility theory, as well as models of choice under uncertainty axiomatized via Choquet expected utility theory. Remarks on interpretations of diversification preferences within models of behavioral choice are given in the conclusion

    The economics of insurance: a review and some recent developments.

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    The present paper is devoted to different methods of choice under risk in an actuarial setting. The classical expected utility theory is first presented, and its drawbacks are underlined. A second approach based on the so-called distorted expectation hypothesis is then described. It will be seen that the well-known stochastic dominance as well as the stop-loss order have common interpretations in both theories, while defining higher degree stochastic orders leads to different concepts. The aim of this paper is to emphasize the similarities of the two approaches of choice under risk as well as to point out their major differences.Economics; Insurance;

    Dynamically consistent Choquet random walk and real investments

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    In the real investments literature, the investigated cash flow is assumed to follow some known stochastic process (e.g. Brownian motion) and the criterion to decide between investments is the discounted utility of their cash flows. However, for most new investments the investor may be ambiguous about the representation of uncertainty. In order to take such ambiguity into account, we refer to a discounted Choquet expected utility in our model. In such a setting some problems are to dealt with: dynamical consistency, here it is obtained in a recursive model by a weakened version of the axiom. Mimicking the Brownian motion as the limit of a random walk for the investment payoff process, we describe the latter as a binomial tree with capacities instead of exact probabilities on its branches and show what are its properties at the limit.  We show that most results in the real investments literature are tractable in this enlarged setting but leave more room to ambiguity as both the mean and the variance of the underlying stochastic process are modified in our ambiguous modelChoquet integrals; conditional Choquet integrals; random walk; Brownian motion; real options; optimal portfolio

    Dynamically consistent Choquet random walk and real investments

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    In the real investments literature, the investigated cash flow is assumed to follow some known stochastic process (e.g. Brownian motion) and the criterion to decide between investments is the discounted utility of their cash flows. However, for most new investments the investor may be ambiguous about the representation of uncertainty. In order to take such ambiguity into account, we refer to a discounted Choquet expected utility in our model. In such a setting some problems are to dealt with: dynamical consistency, here it is obtained in a recursive model by a weakened version of the axiom. Mimicking the Brownian motion as the limit of a random walk for the investment payoff process, we describe the latter as a binomial tree with capacities instead of exact probabilities on its branches and show what are its properties at the limit. We show that most results in the real investments literature are tractable in this enlarged setting but leave more room to ambiguity as both the mean and the variance of the underlying stochastic process are modified in our ambiguous model.

    Multidimensional generalized Gini indices.

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    The axioms used to characterize the generalized Gini social evaluation orderings for one-dimensional distributions are extended to the multidimensional attributes case. A social evaluation ordering is shown to have a two-stage aggregation representation if these axioms and a separability assumption are satisfied. In the first stage, the distributions of each attribute are aggregated using generalized Gini social evaluation functions. The functional form of the second-stage aggregator depends on the number of attributes and on which version of a comonotonic additivity axiom is used. The implications of these results for the corresponding multidimensional indices of relative and absolute inequality are also considered.Generalized Gini; multidimensional inequality

    Updating Choquet Integrals , Consequentialism and Dynamic Consistency

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    Choquet capacities have been used to represent decision makers’ beliefs in order to generalise the expected utility approach. Conditional capacities have to be defined for dynamic choice situations where information may modify the decision maker future beliefs. Several updating rules have been proposed in the literature. We derive them from a general approach based on conditional Choquet expectations. Conversely, depending on the updating rule adopted, the conditional Choquet integral can take different values. Conditional Choquet Expected Utility are derived from axioms on preferences. However, it is now well-known in decision theory that if preferences satisfy simultaneously dynamic consistency and consequentialism axioms their representation is restricted to classical Expected Utility. We show that the rule proposed by Chateauneuf, Kast and Lapied (2001) is the only one to satisfy dynamic consistency with a nonnecessary additive capacityConditional Choquet expectation; Conditional capacity; Updating rules; Choquet Expected Utility; Dynamic consistency; Consequentialism.

    Stochastic dominance with respect to a capacity and risk measures

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    Pursuing our previous work in which the classical notion of increasing convex stochastic dominance relation with respect to a probability has been extended to the case of a normalised monotone (but not necessarily additive) set function also called a capacity, the present paper gives a generalization to the case of a capacity of the classical notion of increasing stochastic dominance relation. This relation is characterized by using the notions of distribution function and quantile function with respect to the given capacity. Characterizations, involving Choquet integrals with respect to a distorted capacity, are established for the classes of monetary risk measures (defined on the space of bounded real-valued measurable functions) satisfying the properties of comonotonic additivity and consistency with respect to a given generalized stochastic dominance relation. Moreover, under suitable assumptions, a "Kusuoka-type" characterization is proved for the class of monetary risk measures having the properties of comonotonic additivity and consistency with respect to the generalized increasing convex stochastic dominance relation. Generalizations to the case of a capacity of some well-known risk measures (such as the Value at Risk or the Tail Value at Risk) are provided as examples. It is also established that some well-known results about Choquet integrals with respect to a distorted probability do not necessarily hold true in the more general case of a distorted capacity.Choquet integral ; stochastic orderings with respect to a capacity ; distortion risk measure ; quantile function with respect to a capacity ; distorted capacity ; Choquet expected utility ; ambiguity ; non-additive probability ; Value at Risk ; Rank-dependent expected utility ; behavioural finance ; maximal correlation risk measure ; quantile-based risk measure ; Kusuoka's characterization theorem
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