An elastic demand schedule-based multimodal assignment model for the simulation of high speed rail (HSR) systems

HSR represents the future of medium-haul intercity transport. In fact, a number of HSR projects are being developed all over the world despite the financial and economic crisis. Such large investments require reliable demand forecasting models to develop solid business plans aiming at optimizing the fares structure and the timetables (operational level) and, on the other hand, at exploring opportunities for new businesses in the long period (strategic level). In this paper we present a model system developed to forecast the national passenger demand for different macroeconomic, transport supply, and HSR market scenarios. The core of the model is based on the simulation of the competition between transportation modes (i.e. air, auto, rail), railways services (intercity vs. High Speed Rail) and HSR operators using an explicit representation of the timetables of all competing modes\services (schedule-based assignment). This requires, in turn, a diachronic network representation of the transport supply for scheduled services and a nested logit model of mode, service, operator, and run choice. To authors’ knowledge this represents the first case of elastic demand, schedule-based assignment model at national scale to forecast HSR demand. The overall modeling framework has been calibrated based on extensive traffic counts and mixed RP-SP interviews gathered between 2009 and 2011, on the Italian multimodal transportation system. The results of the models estimation are presented, and, some applications to test HSR service options (i.e. fares and timetable) of a new operator entering the HSR market and competing with the national incumbent are discussed

Analysis of Alaska Transportation Sectors to Assess Energy Use and Impacts of Price Shocks and Climate Change Legislation

We analyzed the use of energy by Alaska’s transportation sectors to assess the impact of sudden fuel prices changes. We conducted three types of analysis: 1) Development of broad energy use statistics for each transportation sector, including total annual energy and fuel use, carbon emissions, fuel use per ton-mile and passenger-mile, and cost of fuel per ton-mile and passenger-mile. 2) Economic input-output analysis of air, rail, truck, and water transportation sectors. 3) Adjustment of input-output modeling to reflect sudden fuel price changes to estimate the potential impact on industry output and employment. Alaska air transportation used approximately 1.9 billion gallons of fuel annually; 961 million gallons were used for intra-state and exiting Alaska flights. Water transportation used 101.8 million gallons annually, approximately 84.3 million gallons for intra-state and exiting segments. Railroad and truck transportation used 5.1 and 8.8 million gallons annually, respectively. Simulated fuel price increases resulted in an estimated $456.8 million in value-added losses to the Alaska economy through the increase in cost of transportation services, as well as an equivalent loss in income to Alaska household of$26.8 million. A carbon emissions tax would have the greatest impact on the cost of air transportation services followed by water, trucking and rail.309002 DTRT06-G-0011List of Figures / List of Tables / Acknowledgements / Abstract / Executive Summary / Introduction / Background / Research Approach / Findings and Applications / Conclusions / References / Appendix A. Marine Transportation Companies / Appendix B. Barge Fuel Use Calculations / Appendix C. Data Dictionary of Variables and Sources Used for Aviation Fuel Estimates / Appendix D. Glossary of Economic Impact Term

Improving sustainability through intelligent cargo and adaptive decision making

In the current society, logistics is faced with the challenge to meet more stringent sustainability goals. Shippers and transport service providers both aim to reduce the carbon footprint of their logistic operations. To do so, optimal use of logistics resources and physical infrastructure should be aimed for. An adaptive decision making process for the selection of a specific transport modality, transport provider and timeslot (aimed at minimisation of the carbon footprint) enables shippers to achieve this. This requires shippers to have access to up-to-date capacity information from transport providers (e.g. current and scheduled loading status of the various transport means and information on carbon footprint) and traffic information (e.g. city logistics and current traffic information). A prerequisite is an adequate infrastructure for collaboration and open exchange of information between the various stakeholders in the logistics value chain to obtain the up-to-date information. This paper gives a view on how such an advanced information infrastructure can be realised, currently being developed within the EU iCargo project. The paper describes a reference logistics value chain, including business benefits for each of the roles in the logistics value chain of aiming for sustainability. A case analysis is presented that reflects a practical situation in which the various roles collaborate and exchange information for realizing sustainability goals, using adaptive decision making for selecting a transport modality, transport provider, and timeslot. A high-level overview is provided of the requirements on and technical implementation of the supporting advanced infrastructure for collaboration and open information exchange.In the current society, logistics is faced with the challenge to meet more stringent sustainability goals. Shippers and transport service providers both aim to reduce the carbon footprint of their logistic operations. To do so, optimal use of logistics resources and physical infrastructure should be aimed for. An adaptive decision making process for the selection of a specific transport modality, transport provider and timeslot (aimed at minimisation of the carbon footprint) enables shippers to achieve this. This requires shippers to have access to up-to-date capacity information from transport providers (e.g. current and scheduled loading status of the various transport means and information on carbon footprint) and traffic information (e.g. city logistics and current traffic information). A prerequisite is an adequate infrastructure for collaboration and open exchange of information between the various stakeholders in the logistics value chain to obtain the up-to-date information. This paper gives a view on how such an advanced information infrastructure can be realised, currently being developed within the EU iCargo project. The paper describes a reference logistics value chain, including business benefits for each of the roles in the logistics value chain of aiming for sustainability. A case analysis is presented that reflects a practical situation in which the various roles collaborate and exchange information for realizing sustainability goals, using adaptive decision making for selecting a transport modality, transport provider, and timeslot. A high-level overview is provided of the requirements on and technical implementation of the supporting advanced infrastructure for collaboration and open information exchange.In the current society, logistics is faced with the challenge to meet more stringent sustainability goals. Shippers and transport service providers both aim to reduce the carbon footprint of their logistic operations. To do so, optimal use of logistics resources and physical infrastructure should be aimed for. An adaptive decision making process for the selection of a specific transport modality, transport provider and timeslot (aimed at minimisation of the carbon footprint) enables shippers to achieve this. This requires shippers to have access to up-to-date capacity information from transport providers (e.g. current and scheduled loading status of the various transport means and information on carbon footprint) and traffic information (e.g. city logistics and current traffic information). A prerequisite is an adequate infrastructure for collaboration and open exchange of information between the various stakeholders in the logistics value chain to obtain the up-to-date information. This paper gives a view on how such an advanced information infrastructure can be realised, currently being developed within the EU iCargo project. The paper describes a reference logistics value chain, including business benefits for each of the roles in the logistics value chain of aiming for sustainability. A case analysis is presented that reflects a practical situation in which the various roles collaborate and exchange information for realizing sustainability goals, using adaptive decision making for selecting a transport modality, transport provider, and timeslot. A high-level overview is provided of the requirements on and technical implementation of the supporting advanced infrastructure for collaboration and open information exchange

Freight mode choice and adaptive stated preferences

This paper presents empirical results from a survey of determinants of mode choice for freight in India. The Leeds Adaptive Stated Preference software was used for the main survey which was carried out in summer 1998 on the Delhi to Bombay corridor. The survey results show that frequency of service is an important attribute determining mode choice. Valuation of reliability is generally lower than expected. Value of time is quite similar across different product segments. Given prevailing costs, the results suggest that intermodal services can be viable for high value and finished goods

Integer programming based solution approaches for the train dispatching problem

Railroads face the challenge of competing with the trucking industry in a fastpaced environment. In this respect, they are working toward running freight trains on schedule and reducing travel times. The planned train schedules consist of departure and arrival times at main stations on the rail network. A detailed timetable, on the other hand, consists of the departure and arrival times of each train in each track section of its route. The train dispatching problem aims to determine detailed timetables over a rail network in order to minimize deviations from the planned schedule. We provide a new integer programming formulation for this problem based on a spacetime network; we propose heuristic algorithms to solve it and present computational results of these algorithms. Our approach includes some realistic constraints that have not been previously considered as well as all the assumptions and practical issues considered by the earlier works

Investing in Mobility: Freight Transport in the Hudson Region

Proposes a framework for assessing alternative investments in freight rail, highway, and transit capacity that would increase the ability to improve mobility and air quality in the New York metropolitan area

The Full Cost of High-Speed Rail: An Engineering Approach

This paper examines the full costs, defined as the sum of private and social costs, of a high speed rail system proposed for a corridor connecting Los Angeles and San Francisco in California. The full costs include infrastructure, fleet capital and operating expenses, the time users spend on the system, and the social costs of externalities, such as noise, pollution, and accidents. Comparing these full costs to those of other competing modes contributes to the evaluation of the feasibility of high speed rail in the corridor. The paper concludes that high speed rail is significantly more costly than expanding existing air service, and marginally more expensive than auto travel. This suggests that high speed rail is better positioned to serve shorter distance markets where it competes with auto travel than longer distance markets where it substitutes for air. .

Transport in the Trans-Pennine Corridor: Present Conditions and Future Options. Interregional Study Working Paper 3.

This paper reports on a desk study carried out by the Institute for Transport Studies as part of a wider study of opportunities for inter-regional working in the trans-Pennine corridor, considering economic, environmental and transport issues. It draws together available information on transport and movement flows in the trans-Pennine corridor. These patterns of movement are examined from a broad perspective which considers intra-regional, inter- regional and international movements within and across the study area. The report proposes a regional package approach to transport, based on demand management and modal transfer