On the almost sure central limit theorem for ARX processes in adaptive tracking

The goal of this paper is to highlight the almost sure central limit theorem for martingales to the control community and to show the usefulness of this result for the system identification of controllable ARX(p,q) process in adaptive tracking. We also provide strongly consistent estimators of the even moments of the driven noise of a controllable ARX(p,q) process as well as quadratic strong laws for the average costs and estimation errors sequences. Our theoretical results are illustrated by numerical experiments

Organization of the magnetosphere during substorms

The change in degree of organization of the magnetosphere during substorms is investigated by analyzing various geomagnetic indices, as well as interplanetary magnetic field z-component and solar wind flow speed. We conclude that the magnetosphere self-organizes globally during substorms, but neither the magnetosphere nor the solar wind become more predictable in the course of a substorm. This conclusion is based on analysis of five hundred substorms in the period from 2000 to 2002. A minimal dynamic-stochastic model of the driven magnetosphere that reproduces many statistical features of substorm indices is discussed