A Survey of Monte Carlo Tree Search Methods

Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) is a recently proposed search method that combines the precision of tree search with the generality of random sampling. It has received considerable interest due to its spectacular success in the difficult problem of computer Go, but has also proved beneficial in a range of other domains. This paper is a survey of the literature to date, intended to provide a snapshot of the state of the art after the first five years of MCTS research. We outline the core algorithm's derivation, impart some structure on the many variations and enhancements that have been proposed, and summarize the results from the key game and nongame domains to which MCTS methods have been applied. A number of open research questions indicate that the field is ripe for future work

Scaling Monte Carlo Tree Search on Intel Xeon Phi

Many algorithms have been parallelized successfully on the Intel Xeon Phi coprocessor, especially those with regular, balanced, and predictable data access patterns and instruction flows. Irregular and unbalanced algorithms are harder to parallelize efficiently. They are, for instance, present in artificial intelligence search algorithms such as Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS). In this paper we study the scaling behavior of MCTS, on a highly optimized real-world application, on real hardware. The Intel Xeon Phi allows shared memory scaling studies up to 61 cores and 244 hardware threads. We compare work-stealing (Cilk Plus and TBB) and work-sharing (FIFO scheduling) approaches. Interestingly, we find that a straightforward thread pool with a work-sharing FIFO queue shows the best performance. A crucial element for this high performance is the controlling of the grain size, an approach that we call Grain Size Controlled Parallel MCTS. Our subsequent comparing with the Xeon CPUs shows an even more comprehensible distinction in performance between different threading libraries. We achieve, to the best of our knowledge, the fastest implementation of a parallel MCTS on the 61 core Intel Xeon Phi using a real application (47 relative to a sequential run).Comment: 8 pages, 9 figure

Tree Boosting Data Competitions with XGBoost

This Master's Degree Thesis objective is to provide understanding on how to approach a supervised learning predictive problem and illustrate it using a statistical/machine learning algorithm, Tree Boosting. A review of tree methodology is introduced in order to understand its evolution, since Classification and Regression Trees, followed by Bagging, Random Forest and, nowadays, Tree Boosting. The methodology is explained following the XGBoost implementation, which achieved state-of-the-art results in several data competitions. A framework for applied predictive modelling is explained with its proper concepts: objective function, regularization term, overfitting, hyperparameter tuning, k-fold cross validation and feature engineering. All these concepts are illustrated with a real dataset of videogame churn; used in a datathon competition

Setting Parameters by Example

We introduce a class of "inverse parametric optimization" problems, in which one is given both a parametric optimization problem and a desired optimal solution; the task is to determine parameter values that lead to the given solution. We describe algorithms for solving such problems for minimum spanning trees, shortest paths, and other "optimal subgraph" problems, and discuss applications in multicast routing, vehicle path planning, resource allocation, and board game programming.Comment: 13 pages, 3 figures. To be presented at 40th IEEE Symp. Foundations of Computer Science (FOCS '99

On Probabilistic Parallel Programs with Process Creation and Synchronisation

We initiate the study of probabilistic parallel programs with dynamic process creation and synchronisation. To this end, we introduce probabilistic split-join systems (pSJSs), a model for parallel programs, generalising both probabilistic pushdown systems (a model for sequential probabilistic procedural programs which is equivalent to recursive Markov chains) and stochastic branching processes (a classical mathematical model with applications in various areas such as biology, physics, and language processing). Our pSJS model allows for a possibly recursive spawning of parallel processes; the spawned processes can synchronise and return values. We study the basic performance measures of pSJSs, especially the distribution and expectation of space, work and time. Our results extend and improve previously known results on the subsumed models. We also show how to do performance analysis in practice, and present two case studies illustrating the modelling power of pSJSs.Comment: This is a technical report accompanying a TACAS'11 pape