Statistical Degradation Models for Electronics

With increasing presence of electronics in modern systems and in every-day products, their reliability is inextricably dependent on that of their electronics. We develop reliability models for failure-time prediction under small failure-time samples and information on individual degradation history. The development of the model extends the work of Whitmore et al. 1998, to incorporate two new data-structures common to reliability testing. Reliability models traditionally use lifetime information to evaluate the reliability of a device or system. To analyze small failure-time samples within dynamic environments where failure mechanisms are unknown, there is a need for models that make use of auxiliary reliability information. In this thesis we present models suitable for reliability data, where degradation variables are latent and can be tracked by related observable variables we call markers. We provide an engineering justification for our model and develop parametric and predictive inference equations for a data-structure that includes terminal observations of the degradation variable and longitudinal marker measurements. We compare maximum likelihood estimation and prediction results obtained by Whitmore et. al. 1998 and show improvement in inference under small sample sizes. We introduce modeling of variable failure thresholds within the framework of bivariate degradation models and discuss ways of incorporating covariates. In the second part of the thesis we investigate anomaly detection through a Bayesian support vector machine and discuss its place in degradation modeling. We compute posterior class probabilities for time-indexed covariate observations, which we use as measures of degradation. Lastly, we present a multistate model used to model a recurrent event process and failure-times. We compute the expected time to failure using counting process theory and investigate the effect of the event process on the expected failure-time estimates

Reliability Estimation of Rotary Lip Seal in Aircraft Utility System Based on Time-Varying Dependence Degradation Model and Its Experimental Validation

With several attractive properties, rotary lip seals are widely used in aircraft utility system, and their reliability estimation has drawn more and more attention. This work proposes a reliability estimation approach based on time-varying dependence analysis. The dependence between the two performance indicators of rotary lip seals, namely leakage rate and friction torque, is modeled by time-varying copula function with polynomial to denote the time-varying parameters, and an efficient copula selection approach is utilized to select the optimal copula function. Parameter estimation is carried out based on a Bayesian method and the reliability during the whole lifetime is calculated based on a Monte Carlo method. Degradation test for rotary lip seal is conducted and the proposed model is validated by test data. The optimal copula function and optimal order of polynomial are determined based on test data. Results show that this model is effective in estimating the reliability of rotary lip seals and can achieve a better goodness of fit

Reliability assessment of permanent magnet brake based on accelerated bivariate Wiener degradation process

Permanent magnet brake (PMB) is a safe and effective braking mechanism used to stop and hold the load in place. Due to its complex structure and high reliability, assessing the reliability of PMB remains a challenge. The main difficulty lies in that there are several performance indicators reflecting the health state of PMB, and they are correlated with each other. In order to assess the reliability of PMB more accurately, a constant stress accelerated degradation test (ADT) is carried out to collect degradation data of two main performance indicators in PMB. An accelerated bivariate Wiener degradation model is proposed to analyse the ADT data. In the proposed model, the relationship between degradation rate and stress levels is described by Arrhenius model, and a common random effect is introduced to describe the unit-to-unit variation and correlation between the two performance indicators. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is performed to obtain the point and interval estimates of the model parameters. Finally, the proposed model and method are applied to analyse the accelerated degradation data of PMB, and the results show that the reliability of PMB at the used condition can be quantified quite well

Quality criteria benchmark for hyperspectral imagery

Hyperspectral data appear to be of a growing interest over the past few years. However, applications for hyperspectral data are still in their infancy as handling the significant size of the data presents a challenge for the user community. Efficient compression techniques are required, and lossy compression, specifically, will have a role to play, provided its impact on remote sensing applications remains insignificant. To assess the data quality, suitable distortion measures relevant to end-user applications are required. Quality criteria are also of a major interest for the conception and development of new sensors to define their requirements and specifications. This paper proposes a method to evaluate quality criteria in the context of hyperspectral images. The purpose is to provide quality criteria relevant to the impact of degradations on several classification applications. Different quality criteria are considered. Some are traditionnally used in image and video coding and are adapted here to hyperspectral images. Others are specific to hyperspectral data.We also propose the adaptation of two advanced criteria in the presence of different simulated degradations on AVIRIS hyperspectral images. Finally, five criteria are selected to give an accurate representation of the nature and the level of the degradation affecting hyperspectral data

Stochastic Testing Simulator for Integrated Circuits and MEMS: Hierarchical and Sparse Techniques

Process variations are a major concern in today's chip design since they can significantly degrade chip performance. To predict such degradation, existing circuit and MEMS simulators rely on Monte Carlo algorithms, which are typically too slow. Therefore, novel fast stochastic simulators are highly desired. This paper first reviews our recently developed stochastic testing simulator that can achieve speedup factors of hundreds to thousands over Monte Carlo. Then, we develop a fast hierarchical stochastic spectral simulator to simulate a complex circuit or system consisting of several blocks. We further present a fast simulation approach based on anchored ANOVA (analysis of variance) for some design problems with many process variations. This approach can reduce the simulation cost and can identify which variation sources have strong impacts on the circuit's performance. The simulation results of some circuit and MEMS examples are reported to show the effectiveness of our simulatorComment: Accepted to IEEE Custom Integrated Circuits Conference in June 2014. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1407.302