A Law of Large Numbers for Weighted Majority

Consider an election between two candidates in which the voters' choices are random and independent and the probability of a voter choosing the first candidate is $p>1/2$. Condorcet's Jury Theorem which he derived from the weak law of large numbers asserts that if the number of voters tends to infinity then the probability that the first candidate will be elected tends to one. The notion of influence of a voter or its voting power is relevant for extensions of the weak law of large numbers for voting rules which are more general than simple majority. In this paper we point out two different ways to extend the classical notions of voting power and influences to arbitrary probability distributions. The extension relevant to us is the ``effect'' of a voter, which is a weighted version of the correlation between the voter's vote and the election's outcomes. We prove an extension of the weak law of large numbers to weighted majority games when all individual effects are small and show that this result does not apply to any voting rule which is not based on weighted majority

Single-Elimination Brackets Fail to Approximate Copeland Winner

Single-elimination (SE) brackets appear commonly in both sports tournaments and the voting theory literature. In certain tournament models, they have been shown to select the unambiguously-strongest competitor with optimum probability. By contrast, we reevaluate SE brackets through the lens of approximation, where the goal is to select a winner who would beat the most other competitors in a round robin (i.e., maximize the Copeland score), and find them lacking. Our primary result establishes the approximation ratio of a randomly-seeded SE bracket is 2^{- Theta(sqrt{log n})}; this is underwhelming considering a 1/2 ratio is achieved by choosing a winner uniformly at random. We also establish that a generalized version of the SE bracket performs nearly as poorly, with an approximation ratio of 2^{- Omega(sqrt[4]{log n})}, addressing a decade-old open question in the voting tree literature

Human gesture classification by brute-force machine learning for exergaming in physiotherapy

In this paper, a novel approach for human gesture classification on skeletal data is proposed for the application of exergaming in physiotherapy. Unlike existing methods, we propose to use a general classifier like Random Forests to recognize dynamic gestures. The temporal dimension is handled afterwards by majority voting in a sliding window over the consecutive predictions of the classifier. The gestures can have partially similar postures, such that the classifier will decide on the dissimilar postures. This brute-force classification strategy is permitted, because dynamic human gestures show sufficient dissimilar postures. Online continuous human gesture recognition can classify dynamic gestures in an early stage, which is a crucial advantage when controlling a game by automatic gesture recognition. Also, ground truth can be easily obtained, since all postures in a gesture get the same label, without any discretization into consecutive postures. This way, new gestures can be easily added, which is advantageous in adaptive game development. We evaluate our strategy by a leave-one-subject-out cross-validation on a self-captured stealth game gesture dataset and the publicly available Microsoft Research Cambridge-12 Kinect (MSRC-12) dataset. On the first dataset we achieve an excellent accuracy rate of 96.72%. Furthermore, we show that Random Forests perform better than Support Vector Machines. On the second dataset we achieve an accuracy rate of 98.37%, which is on average 3.57% better then existing methods

Three Puzzles on Mathematics, Computation, and Games

In this lecture I will talk about three mathematical puzzles involving mathematics and computation that have preoccupied me over the years. The first puzzle is to understand the amazing success of the simplex algorithm for linear programming. The second puzzle is about errors made when votes are counted during elections. The third puzzle is: are quantum computers possible?Comment: ICM 2018 plenary lecture, Rio de Janeiro, 36 pages, 7 Figure

Complexity of coalition structure generation

We revisit the coalition structure generation problem in which the goal is to partition the players into exhaustive and disjoint coalitions so as to maximize the social welfare. One of our key results is a general polynomial-time algorithm to solve the problem for all coalitional games provided that player types are known and the number of player types is bounded by a constant. As a corollary, we obtain a polynomial-time algorithm to compute an optimal partition for weighted voting games with a constant number of weight values and for coalitional skill games with a constant number of skills. We also consider well-studied and well-motivated coalitional games defined compactly on combinatorial domains. For these games, we characterize the complexity of computing an optimal coalition structure by presenting polynomial-time algorithms, approximation algorithms, or NP-hardness and inapproximability lower bounds.Comment: 17 page

A note on Condorcet consistency and the median voter

We discuss to which extent the median voter theorem extends to the domain of single-peaked preferences on median spaces. After observing that on this domain a Condorcet winner need not exist, we show that if a Condorcet winner does exist, then it coincides with the median alternative ('the median voter'). Based on this result, we propose two non-cooperative games that implement the unique strategy-proof social choice rule on this domain. --