ANALYZING BIG DATA WITH DECISION TREES

ANALYZING BIG DATA WITH DECISION TREE

GENESIM : genetic extraction of a single, interpretable model

Models obtained by decision tree induction techniques excel in being interpretable.However, they can be prone to overfitting, which results in a low predictive performance. Ensemble techniques are able to achieve a higher accuracy. However, this comes at a cost of losing interpretability of the resulting model. This makes ensemble techniques impractical in applications where decision support, instead of decision making, is crucial. To bridge this gap, we present the GENESIM algorithm that transforms an ensemble of decision trees to a single decision tree with an enhanced predictive performance by using a genetic algorithm. We compared GENESIM to prevalent decision tree induction and ensemble techniques using twelve publicly available data sets. The results show that GENESIM achieves a better predictive performance on most of these data sets than decision tree induction techniques and a predictive performance in the same order of magnitude as the ensemble techniques. Moreover, the resulting model of GENESIM has a very low complexity, making it very interpretable, in contrast to ensemble techniques.Comment: Presented at NIPS 2016 Workshop on Interpretable Machine Learning in Complex System

A Multi-Gene Genetic Programming Application for Predicting Students Failure at School

Several efforts to predict student failure rate (SFR) at school accurately still remains a core problem area faced by many in the educational sector. The procedure for forecasting SFR are rigid and most often times require data scaling or conversion into binary form such as is the case of the logistic model which may lead to lose of information and effect size attenuation. Also, the high number of factors, incomplete and unbalanced dataset, and black boxing issues as in Artificial Neural Networks and Fuzzy logic systems exposes the need for more efficient tools. Currently the application of Genetic Programming (GP) holds great promises and has produced tremendous positive results in different sectors. In this regard, this study developed GPSFARPS, a software application to provide a robust solution to the prediction of SFR using an evolutionary algorithm known as multi-gene genetic programming. The approach is validated by feeding a testing data set to the evolved GP models. Result obtained from GPSFARPS simulations show its unique ability to evolve a suitable failure rate expression with a fast convergence at 30 generations from a maximum specified generation of 500. The multi-gene system was also able to minimize the evolved model expression and accurately predict student failure rate using a subset of the original expressionComment: 14 pages, 9 figures, Journal paper. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1403.0623 by other author