Structure Learning in Coupled Dynamical Systems and Dynamic Causal Modelling

Identifying a coupled dynamical system out of many plausible candidates, each of which could serve as the underlying generator of some observed measurements, is a profoundly ill posed problem that commonly arises when modelling real world phenomena. In this review, we detail a set of statistical procedures for inferring the structure of nonlinear coupled dynamical systems (structure learning), which has proved useful in neuroscience research. A key focus here is the comparison of competing models of (ie, hypotheses about) network architectures and implicit coupling functions in terms of their Bayesian model evidence. These methods are collectively referred to as dynamical casual modelling (DCM). We focus on a relatively new approach that is proving remarkably useful; namely, Bayesian model reduction (BMR), which enables rapid evaluation and comparison of models that differ in their network architecture. We illustrate the usefulness of these techniques through modelling neurovascular coupling (cellular pathways linking neuronal and vascular systems), whose function is an active focus of research in neurobiology and the imaging of coupled neuronal systems

Channel Selection and Feature Projection for Cognitive Load Estimation Using Ambulatory EEG

We present an ambulatory cognitive state classification system to assess the subject's mental load based on EEG measurements. The ambulatory cognitive state estimator is utilized in the context of a real-time augmented cognition (AugCog) system that aims to enhance the cognitive performance of a human user through computer-mediated assistance based on assessments of cognitive states using physiological signals including, but not limited to, EEG. This paper focuses particularly on the offline channel selection and feature projection phases of the design and aims to present mutual-information-based techniques that use a simple sample estimator for this quantity. Analyses conducted on data collected from 3 subjects performing 2 tasks (n-back/Larson) at 2 difficulty levels (low/high) demonstrate that the proposed mutual-information-based dimensionality reduction scheme can achieve up to 94% cognitive load estimation accuracy

Change-point Problem and Regression: An Annotated Bibliography

The problems of identifying changes at unknown times and of estimating the location of changes in stochastic processes are referred to as the change-point problem or, in the Eastern literature, as disorder . The change-point problem, first introduced in the quality control context, has since developed into a fundamental problem in the areas of statistical control theory, stationarity of a stochastic process, estimation of the current position of a time series, testing and estimation of change in the patterns of a regression model, and most recently in the comparison and matching of DNA sequences in microarray data analysis. Numerous methodological approaches have been implemented in examining change-point models. Maximum-likelihood estimation, Bayesian estimation, isotonic regression, piecewise regression, quasi-likelihood and non-parametric regression are among the methods which have been applied to resolving challenges in change-point problems. Grid-searching approaches have also been used to examine the change-point problem. Statistical analysis of change-point problems depends on the method of data collection. If the data collection is ongoing until some random time, then the appropriate statistical procedure is called sequential. If, however, a large finite set of data is collected with the purpose of determining if at least one change-point occurred, then this may be referred to as non-sequential. Not surprisingly, both the former and the latter have a rich literature with much of the earlier work focusing on sequential methods inspired by applications in quality control for industrial processes. In the regression literature, the change-point model is also referred to as two- or multiple-phase regression, switching regression, segmented regression, two-stage least squares (Shaban, 1980), or broken-line regression. The area of the change-point problem has been the subject of intensive research in the past half-century. The subject has evolved considerably and found applications in many different areas. It seems rather impossible to summarize all of the research carried out over the past 50 years on the change-point problem. We have therefore confined ourselves to those articles on change-point problems which pertain to regression. The important branch of sequential procedures in change-point problems has been left out entirely. We refer the readers to the seminal review papers by Lai (1995, 2001). The so called structural change models, which occupy a considerable portion of the research in the area of change-point, particularly among econometricians, have not been fully considered. We refer the reader to Perron (2005) for an updated review in this area. Articles on change-point in time series are considered only if the methodologies presented in the paper pertain to regression analysis

On the Recognition of Emotion from Physiological Data

This work encompasses several objectives, but is primarily concerned with an experiment where 33 participants were shown 32 slides in order to create ‗weakly induced emotions‘. Recordings of the participants‘ physiological state were taken as well as a self report of their emotional state. We then used an assortment of classifiers to predict emotional state from the recorded physiological signals, a process known as Physiological Pattern Recognition (PPR). We investigated techniques for recording, processing and extracting features from six different physiological signals: Electrocardiogram (ECG), Blood Volume Pulse (BVP), Galvanic Skin Response (GSR), Electromyography (EMG), for the corrugator muscle, skin temperature for the finger and respiratory rate. Improvements to the state of PPR emotion detection were made by allowing for 9 different weakly induced emotional states to be detected at nearly 65% accuracy. This is an improvement in the number of states readily detectable. The work presents many investigations into numerical feature extraction from physiological signals and has a chapter dedicated to collating and trialing facial electromyography techniques. There is also a hardware device we created to collect participant self reported emotional states which showed several improvements to experimental procedure

A bibliography of research on behavioral decision processes to 1968

Bibliography of research of human behavioral decision making processes to Jan. 196

Bayesian Gaussian Process Models: PAC-Bayesian Generalisation Error Bounds and Sparse Approximations

Non-parametric models and techniques enjoy a growing popularity in the field of machine learning, and among these Bayesian inference for Gaussian process (GP) models has recently received significant attention. We feel that GP priors should be part of the standard toolbox for constructing models relevant to machine learning in the same way as parametric linear models are, and the results in this thesis help to remove some obstacles on the way towards this goal. In the first main chapter, we provide a distribution-free finite sample bound on the difference between generalisation and empirical (training) error for GP classification methods. While the general theorem (the PAC-Bayesian bound) is not new, we give a much simplified and somewhat generalised derivation and point out the underlying core technique (convex duality) explicitly. Furthermore, the application to GP models is novel (to our knowledge). A central feature of this bound is that its quality depends crucially on task knowledge being encoded faithfully in the model and prior distributions, so there is a mutual benefit between a sharp theoretical guarantee and empirically well-established statistical practices. Extensive simulations on real-world classification tasks indicate an impressive tightness of the bound, in spite of the fact that many previous bounds for related kernel machines fail to give non-trivial guarantees in this practically relevant regime. In the second main chapter, sparse approximations are developed to address the problem of the unfavourable scaling of most GP techniques with large training sets. Due to its high importance in practice, this problem has received a lot of attention recently. We demonstrate the tractability and usefulness of simple greedy forward selection with information-theoretic criteria previously used in active learning (or sequential design) and develop generic schemes for automatic model selection with many (hyper)parameters. We suggest two new generic schemes and evaluate some of their variants on large real-world classification and regression tasks. These schemes and their underlying principles (which are clearly stated and analysed) can be applied to obtain sparse approximations for a wide regime of GP models far beyond the special cases we studied here

Untangling hotel industry’s inefficiency: An SFA approach applied to a renowned Portuguese hotel chain

The present paper explores the technical efficiency of four hotels from Teixeira Duarte Group - a renowned Portuguese hotel chain. An efficiency ranking is established from these four hotel units located in Portugal using Stochastic Frontier Analysis. This methodology allows to discriminate between measurement error and systematic inefficiencies in the estimation process enabling to investigate the main inefficiency causes. Several suggestions concerning efficiency improvement are undertaken for each hotel studied.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Mathematical Optimization Techniques

The papers collected in this volume were presented at the Symposium on Mathematical Optimization Techniques held in the Santa Monica Civic Auditorium, Santa Monica, California, on October 18-20, 1960. The objective of the symposium was to bring together, for the purpose of mutual education, mathematicians, scientists, and engineers interested in modern optimization techniques. Some 250 persons attended. The techniques discussed included recent developments in linear, integer, convex, and dynamic programming as well as the variational processes surrounding optimal guidance, flight trajectories, statistical decisions, structural configurations, and adaptive control systems. The symposium was sponsored jointly by the University of California, with assistance from the National Science Foundation, the Office of Naval Research, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and The RAND Corporation, through Air Force Project RAND