38,337 research outputs found
Belief Revision in Structured Probabilistic Argumentation
In real-world applications, knowledge bases consisting of all the information
at hand for a specific domain, along with the current state of affairs, are
bound to contain contradictory data coming from different sources, as well as
data with varying degrees of uncertainty attached. Likewise, an important
aspect of the effort associated with maintaining knowledge bases is deciding
what information is no longer useful; pieces of information (such as
intelligence reports) may be outdated, may come from sources that have recently
been discovered to be of low quality, or abundant evidence may be available
that contradicts them. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic structured
argumentation framework that arises from the extension of Presumptive
Defeasible Logic Programming (PreDeLP) with probabilistic models, and argue
that this formalism is capable of addressing the basic issues of handling
contradictory and uncertain data. Then, to address the last issue, we focus on
the study of non-prioritized belief revision operations over probabilistic
PreDeLP programs. We propose a set of rationality postulates -- based on
well-known ones developed for classical knowledge bases -- that characterize
how such operations should behave, and study a class of operators along with
theoretical relationships with the proposed postulates, including a
representation theorem stating the equivalence between this class and the class
of operators characterized by the postulates
A Description Logic Framework for Commonsense Conceptual Combination Integrating Typicality, Probabilities and Cognitive Heuristics
We propose a nonmonotonic Description Logic of typicality able to account for
the phenomenon of concept combination of prototypical concepts. The proposed
logic relies on the logic of typicality ALC TR, whose semantics is based on the
notion of rational closure, as well as on the distributed semantics of
probabilistic Description Logics, and is equipped with a cognitive heuristic
used by humans for concept composition. We first extend the logic of typicality
ALC TR by typicality inclusions whose intuitive meaning is that "there is
probability p about the fact that typical Cs are Ds". As in the distributed
semantics, we define different scenarios containing only some typicality
inclusions, each one having a suitable probability. We then focus on those
scenarios whose probabilities belong to a given and fixed range, and we exploit
such scenarios in order to ascribe typical properties to a concept C obtained
as the combination of two prototypical concepts. We also show that reasoning in
the proposed Description Logic is EXPTIME-complete as for the underlying ALC.Comment: 39 pages, 3 figure
Updating beliefs with incomplete observations
Currently, there is renewed interest in the problem, raised by Shafer in
1985, of updating probabilities when observations are incomplete. This is a
fundamental problem in general, and of particular interest for Bayesian
networks. Recently, Grunwald and Halpern have shown that commonly used updating
strategies fail in this case, except under very special assumptions. In this
paper we propose a new method for updating probabilities with incomplete
observations. Our approach is deliberately conservative: we make no assumptions
about the so-called incompleteness mechanism that associates complete with
incomplete observations. We model our ignorance about this mechanism by a
vacuous lower prevision, a tool from the theory of imprecise probabilities, and
we use only coherence arguments to turn prior into posterior probabilities. In
general, this new approach to updating produces lower and upper posterior
probabilities and expectations, as well as partially determinate decisions.
This is a logical consequence of the existing ignorance about the
incompleteness mechanism. We apply the new approach to the problem of
classification of new evidence in probabilistic expert systems, where it leads
to a new, so-called conservative updating rule. In the special case of Bayesian
networks constructed using expert knowledge, we provide an exact algorithm for
classification based on our updating rule, which has linear-time complexity for
a class of networks wider than polytrees. This result is then extended to the
more general framework of credal networks, where computations are often much
harder than with Bayesian nets. Using an example, we show that our rule appears
to provide a solid basis for reliable updating with incomplete observations,
when no strong assumptions about the incompleteness mechanism are justified.Comment: Replaced with extended versio
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