5 research outputs found

    Spontaneous and relative categorisation.

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    EFFECT OF COGNITIVE BIASES ON HUMAN UNDERSTANDING OF RULE-BASED MACHINE LEARNING MODELS

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    PhDThis thesis investigates to what extent do cognitive biases a ect human understanding of interpretable machine learning models, in particular of rules discovered from data. Twenty cognitive biases (illusions, e ects) are analysed in detail, including identi cation of possibly e ective debiasing techniques that can be adopted by designers of machine learning algorithms and software. This qualitative research is complemented by multiple experiments aimed to verify, whether, and to what extent, do selected cognitive biases in uence human understanding of actual rule learning results. Two experiments were performed, one focused on eliciting plausibility judgments for pairs of inductively learned rules, second experiment involved replication of the Linda experiment with crowdsourcing and two of its modi cations. Altogether nearly 3.000 human judgments were collected. We obtained empirical evidence for the insensitivity to sample size e ect. There is also limited evidence for the disjunction fallacy, misunderstanding of and , weak evidence e ect and availability heuristic. While there seems no universal approach for eliminating all the identi ed cognitive biases, it follows from our analysis that the e ect of many biases can be ameliorated by making rule-based models more concise. To this end, in the second part of thesis we propose a novel machine learning framework which postprocesses rules on the output of the seminal association rule classi cation algorithm CBA [Liu et al, 1998]. The framework uses original undiscretized numerical attributes to optimize the discovered association rules, re ning the boundaries of literals in the antecedent of the rules produced by CBA. Some rules as well as literals from the rules can consequently be removed, which makes the resulting classi er smaller. Benchmark of our approach on 22 UCI datasets shows average 53% decrease in the total size of the model as measured by the total number of conditions in all rules. Model accuracy remains on the same level as for CBA

    An Algorithmic Interpretation of Quantum Probability

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    The Everett (or relative-state, or many-worlds) interpretation of quantum mechanics has come under fire for inadequately dealing with the Born rule (the formula for calculating quantum probabilities). Numerous attempts have been made to derive this rule from the perspective of observers within the quantum wavefunction. These are not really analytic proofs, but are rather attempts to derive the Born rule as a synthetic a priori necessity, given the nature of human observers (a fact not fully appreciated even by all of those who have attempted such proofs). I show why existing attempts are unsuccessful or only partly successful, and postulate that Solomonoff's algorithmic approach to the interpretation of probability theory could clarify the problems with these approaches. The Sleeping Beauty probability puzzle is used as a springboard from which to deduce an objectivist, yet synthetic a priori framework for quantum probabilities, that properly frames the role of self-location and self-selection (anthropic) principles in probability theory. I call this framework "algorithmic synthetic unity" (or ASU). I offer no new formal proof of the Born rule, largely because I feel that existing proofs (particularly that of Gleason) are already adequate, and as close to being a formal proof as one should expect or want. Gleason's one unjustified assumption--known as noncontextuality--is, I will argue, completely benign when considered within the algorithmic framework that I propose. I will also argue that, to the extent the Born rule can be derived within ASU, there is no reason to suppose that we could not also derive all the other fundamental postulates of quantum theory, as well. There is nothing special here about the Born rule, and I suggest that a completely successful Born rule proof might only be possible once all the other postulates become part of the derivation. As a start towards this end, I show how we can already derive the essential content of the fundamental postulates of quantum mechanics, at least in outline, and especially if we allow some educated and well-motivated guesswork along the way. The result is some steps towards a coherent and consistent algorithmic interpretation of quantum mechanics
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